In the Kupyansk direction, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have advanced, with Ukrainian forces attempting to cut off the Russian assault groups in Kupyansk from the north.

Ukrainian forces advanced from their newly recaptured positions in the forest plantations north of Moskovka, across the P-79 Highway, and into the forests south of Kindrashivka and northwest of Radkivka. They were able to take the poorly consolidated Russian positions there and used them to push further into the treelines southeast and east of Kindrashivka.

Ukrainian armoured vehicles were able to advance further, and approached the western bank of the Oskil River, but were subsequently destroyed by FPV drones. Most of the infantry in the vehicles were killed shortly afterwards, and the chances of consolidation in these areas is next to zero. Nevertheless, Russian logistics into Kupyansk have been complicated. While all supply was already being carried out on foot through fields and forests, this shortening of the gap that can be used will make things more difficult and could delay the eventual fall of the city.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continued to advance in Kupyansk itself. They were able to consolidate in the central market and advance to the residential areas and the university, physically encircling any remaining Ukrainian soldiers in the grey zone of the city centre.

+ ~1.74 km² in favour of Ukraine.
+ ~0.54 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Velykyi Burluk direction, Russian forces intensified their assault operations over the past week, making substantial progress.

Russian forces advanced south from their recently captured positions across the international border northeast of Odradne, and captured new positions in the gulleys and treelines southeast of Odradne. This allowed for the Russians to break out of the village and take up new positions in the forest and treelines to the south.

From there, a new incursion was made across the border in the direction of Bolohivka. The Russians quickly captured the lightly defended positions in the forests just across the border, linking up their larger incursion zone to the rest of the frontline in Kharkiv Oblast. They then began attacking Bolohivka from the northeast, while other forces advanced downhill and southeast along the treelines from their earlier incursion zone. This allowed for them to enter the village from two directions and quickly seize control over it.

Since then, Russian forces began a new series of attacks in the area between Bolohivka and Odradne. They advanced south down the treelines and gulleys, taking up new positions on both the tactical heights and in the low-lying ground, and reached the northern outskirts of Dvorichanske where fighting is now ongoing.

+ ~24.80 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Vovchansk direction, Russian forces continued to advance southwest of Vovchansk, further expanding their bridgehead on the southern bank of the Vovcha River.

After establishing control over much of the western suburbs, Russian forces began attacking out of the city towards the village of Synelnykove. They were able to establish control over the rest of the residential parts of Vovchansk west of the railway line and secured new positions in the adjacent forests and on the outskirts of Synelnykove.

Further west, the Russians intensified their assault operations in the Synelnykove Forest. They pushed further south from the eastern bank of the Vovcha River and reached the Synelnykove - Hrafske Road, establishing control over numerous positions north of it.

+ ~5.58 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Khotin direction, Russian forces continued their assault operations towards Kindrativka and have recaptured positions northeast of the village.

After being forced to withdraw over the reservoir, Russian forces crossed it again using rubber boats and gained a foothold in the forest plantations on its southern bank. From there they advanced further, securing the entire southern bank, as well as positions further south along the treeline.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are attacking towards the road intersection west of Kostyantynivka, attempting to cut off supplies into the village. No confirmed progress has been made here.

+ ~1.81 km² in favour of Russia.

Reuters reports that due to the repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on the Ryazan Oil Refinery, the refinery has shut down its main oil processing unit (ATV-4) for three months.

This unit can produce as much as 4 million metric tons of fuel per year (80,000 barrels per day), which equates to 35-50% of the refinery's total production capacity. In addition to this, nearby units such as a reformer, gasoil hydrotreater, and catalytic cracker were also reportedly temporarily halted due to the damage sustained.

The Ryazan Oil Refinery is the fourth largest in Russia, and processes approximately 5% of Russia's total refinery output.

Overnight, 2 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

One An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Diaghilev Airbase, carrying Kh-101 cruise missiles for the Tu-95MS. To my knowledge, this is the first recorded instance of Russia using Diaghilev Airbase to equip their bombers.

Meanwhile, 1 Tu-95MS is stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and 3 are at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. 2 Tu-160s are also stationed at Engels-2. All of these aircraft are equipped with missiles.

There is an increased possibility of the next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine taking place tonight, as large launches of Geran-2 drones are expected to take place.

My interview with AMK mapping is now up.

https://youtu.be/pl3bA4Xh9sI?si=q_LkZzJQN1BnSnKl

This is my fourth episode on Kalibrated, and its interesting seeing how my views have evolved over time since the first time I appeared on the show in June 2024.

There is a significant chance of Russia launching a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded (not confirmed) from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai. Additional preparations for launches of Gerna-2/3 drones has been recorded from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

Due to recent accumulations of Geran-2 drones at Millerovo Airbase, the numbers of drones launched from here alone could reach as high as 100.

Additionally, due to recent deliveries of missiles, there is a high threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile and Iskander-K cruise missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast.

A Russian BM-35 drone has struck a wind turbine near Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast for the third time this week.

Over the past 48 hours, as many as 4 Russian MiG-31Ks have been re-equipped with Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast. They may be used tonight.

Here is a map showing the known locations where Russian Iskander-M and Iskander-K OTRK installations are usually situated, as well as the current operational Geran-2 launch points.