Novhorod-Siverskyi in Chernihiv Oblast came under attack from Geran-2 drones last night. At least 5 impacts were recorded, although the target(s) are unknown.

So far, this image is the only visual evidence of the strikes.

Russian VKS-affiliated channel Fighterbomber reports that a Russian Ka-52 helicopter was lost. It's unclear if it was shot down or crashed. There is currently no other information available about it.

The 5 Tu-95MS strategic bombers that took off from Ukrainka Airbase yesterday did not redeploy to western Russia, and instead carried out large-scale training.

However, an An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Engels-2 Airbase, which can carry up to 70 Kh-101 cruise missiles. We will likely see these 5 Tu-95MS redeploy from Ukrainka to Engels-2 in the coming days, in preparation for the next missile attack on Ukraine.

Donetsk vibes

Id like to make some general predictions regarding the future of Pokrovsk and its corresponding front. I've colour coded red as the first step of Russian advances, purple as the 2nd step and pink as the 3rd step. Ukrainian withdrawal is represented by blue and future Russian advances by orange. The first and most critical step for Russian forces is to seize the coal mine north of Udachnoye. This will serve as a critical base for Russian attacks to both Sergeyevka and Grishino. Once Russia secures the coal mine and consolidates, they can move NE to cut the E50 highway and put the O0525 under fire control. This will be in sync with russia taking Rodinskoye, allowing them to launch attacks and pressure the remaining routes into the city from both the SW and NE. Inevitably, the AFU will be forced to withdraw to more defensible positions by leaving Lysovka, Sukhyy Yar and Promon. (1/2)

Once the E50 and O0525 are cut, Pokrovsk will fall along with Grishino in Avdeyevka style fashion. From here, a very much Ocheretino-style push will occur, with Russian forces essentially steamrolling northeast to Dobropellya and Slavyanka. In the long term, by developing a significant breach of the final AFU defensive line, Russian forces will be able to sweep behind Kramatorsk and Druzhkovka, finally collapsing the Donbass. This post serves to educate people on how truly strategically crucial Pokrovsk is. (2/2)

We can't forget about the Kucheriv Yar salient either. Now that it has been largely secured, it could form a northeastern flank for Dobropillya once Pokrovsk falls

Russian FPV drones must be hunting out NAFO vehicles at this point.

Priority targets

I kinda feel bad for the poor nafos funding these vehicles.

They should really be putting that money into humanitarian aid, or teams like white angels who are rescuing civilians from frontline areas.

In the Hulyaipole direction, Russian forces continue to advance and have made additional progress in the village of Poltavka.

After securing the whole eastern bank of the Yanchur River in this sector, Russian forces crossed the river at the bridge, and entered the eastern houses of the main part of Poltavka. They were able to consolidate their initial bridgehead, and expand outwards, pushing northwest to the village administrative building, and south to the two 3-story buildings and surrounding houses.

MLRS and artillery shelling is targeting the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village, and in the last couple of days, the southern part of the settlement has moved into the grey zone.

+ ~1.07 km² in favour of Russia.

In the Pokrovske direction, Russian forces continued to advance, and have made significant progress in two areas.

In the southwest, Russian forces consolidated their positions in the treelines west of Stepove, and began infiltrating north towards the village of Oleksiivka. Despite Ukrainian FPV drone coverage, they were able to secure the southern part of the settlement as other forces began consolidating in the three parallel treelines to the south/southeast.

In the northeast, after the Ukrainian counterattacks last week, Russian forces began reversing the Ukrainian progress. They re-entered Sichneve from the east, securing the eastern houses, and began advancing through the treelines south and southwest of the village. They also pushed west through the gulley in the grey zone to Novoselivka, and branched off down two separate treelines to the north and south, reaching the orchards just outside Novoselivka, while approaching the southern bank of the Vovcha River.

As a result of these advances, any remaining Ukrainian forces in Sichneve have been operationally encircled (this is the second time this has happened in this village). Also, the situation was clarified north of Sichneve, with Russian forces retaining control over treeline positions there, despite my earlier reports stating that they were in the grey-zone/under Ukrainian control.

+ ~19.28 km² in favour of Russia.