Reuters reports that due to the repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on the Ryazan Oil Refinery, the refinery has shut down its main oil processing unit (ATV-4) for three months.

This unit can produce as much as 4 million metric tons of fuel per year (80,000 barrels per day), which equates to 35-50% of the refinery's total production capacity. In addition to this, nearby units such as a reformer, gasoil hydrotreater, and catalytic cracker were also reportedly temporarily halted due to the damage sustained.

The Ryazan Oil Refinery is the fourth largest in Russia, and processes approximately 5% of Russia's total refinery output.

Overnight, 2 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

One An-124-100 "Ruslan" cargo plane landed at Diaghilev Airbase, carrying Kh-101 cruise missiles for the Tu-95MS. To my knowledge, this is the first recorded instance of Russia using Diaghilev Airbase to equip their bombers.

Meanwhile, 1 Tu-95MS is stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, and 3 are at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. 2 Tu-160s are also stationed at Engels-2. All of these aircraft are equipped with missiles.

There is an increased possibility of the next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine taking place tonight, as large launches of Geran-2 drones are expected to take place.

My interview with AMK mapping is now up.

https://youtu.be/pl3bA4Xh9sI?si=q_LkZzJQN1BnSnKl

This is my fourth episode on Kalibrated, and its interesting seeing how my views have evolved over time since the first time I appeared on the show in June 2024.

There is a significant chance of Russia launching a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded (not confirmed) from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai. Additional preparations for launches of Gerna-2/3 drones has been recorded from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

Due to recent accumulations of Geran-2 drones at Millerovo Airbase, the numbers of drones launched from here alone could reach as high as 100.

Additionally, due to recent deliveries of missiles, there is a high threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile and Iskander-K cruise missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast.

A Russian BM-35 drone has struck a wind turbine near Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast for the third time this week.

Over the past 48 hours, as many as 4 Russian MiG-31Ks have been re-equipped with Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast. They may be used tonight.

Here is a map showing the known locations where Russian Iskander-M and Iskander-K OTRK installations are usually situated, as well as the current operational Geran-2 launch points.

Radio activity connected to Russian strategic bombers is recorded at Engels-2 Airbase.

Launches of Russian Geran-2 drones have been recorded from Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast. Additional preparations for Geran launches are taking place at Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.

There are continued communications between Moscow and Engels-2 Airbase. Additional activity is recorded at Diaghilev Airbase, which is also communicating with Moscow. These are taking place on combat-related frequencies.

Departures of at least five Tu-95MS bombers are expected in the next few hours.

There are also 5 Tu-22m3 Strategic bombers stationed at Diaghilev Airbase, which may take part in today's attack. They are all believed to be equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles.

New Russian turtle tank just dropped.

Additional radio activity is recorded at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast. This is where the 4 equipped MiG-31Ks are currently stationed.

It's possible that this activity is not combat-related.

2 Tu-95MS strategic bombers departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. They are probably redeploying to Engels-2 Airbase.

Currently, the number of Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian remains low, and activity on frequencies is limited.