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Watershed or Worry? Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact Shakes Up Region’s Geopolitics

What’s New:

Saudi Arabia & Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement on September 17, 2025 in Riyadh.

The pact commits that “any aggression” against one party is seen as aggression against both.

Seen as a landmark, formalizing defence cooperation: joint trainings, possibility of Pakistani forces deploying to Saudi, etc.

Why It Matters Now:

Gulf states feel increasing insecurity given recent conflicts (e.g. Israel-Gaza war, strikes on neighbouring states, the Israeli attack on Doha) and waning trust in U.S. guarantees.

Pakistan’s historically close relationship with Saudi gains formal strength beyond financial aid—this deal gives it more leverage.

What India Should Watch / Implications:

Strategic Depth for Pakistan: Pakistan’s stature in the Gulf gets a boost, possibly changing how Saudi Arabia balances between India and Pakistan.

Diplomatic Complexity: India has been building its relationship with Saudi Arabia; this pact adds another layer. New defence cooperation between Saudis and Pakistan might push India to calibrate its diplomacy more carefully.

Security Postures Tighten: With such pacts in play, regional neighbours may adjust their own posture (military, diplomatic) to hedge uncertainties. India might need to reaffirm its deterrence around its fronts and border areas.

Nuclear Shadowing Concerns: Even though the agreement doesn’t explicitly create a nuclear umbrella, the symbolism and language of “joint deterrence” and “aggression” can raise anxieties. India will be watching closely to see how this evolves.

Operational Details Will Matter: Exactly how military cooperation is structured—troop deployments, bases, command linkages, rules of engagement—will determine real impact. India has to monitor these closely.
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US withdraws sanctions waiver to Chabahar port


What happened

The US has decided to withdraw the waiver from sanctions that previously protected operations relating to Iran’s Chabahar Port, which India has been helping to develop.

The change takes effect September 29, 2025, under the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act (IFCA).

Background & Significance of Chabahar

Chabahar is located at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman, on Iran’s east coast, giving Iran its first deep-water port on a major sea route.

For India, Chabahar offers a strategic trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia that bypasses Pakistan, which has blocked land routes.

Chabahar is also part of the proposed International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-modal project connecting the Indian Ocean / Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea and onward to northern Europe.

India’s involvement so far

India first pursued cooperation on Chabahar in the early 2000s; a formal trilateral agreement with Iran and Afghanistan was signed in 2016.

The port has two main sections: Shahid Beheshti (where India is involved) and Shahid Kalantari. India’s investment is only in Shahid Beheshti.

The first phase of Shahid Beheshti commenced operations in late 2017; India has used it to send wheat to Afghanistan, and Afghan exports to India have also gone through Chabahar.

When fully developed (over four phases), the capacity is planned to be 82 million tons per year, with multiple jetties/terminals (container, multipurpose, dry bulk, oil).

Why the waiver was needed and why it’s being revoked

In 2018, India was given a sanctions waiver under US policy so that its involvement in Chabahar (for development, trade to Afghanistan, etc.) would not be penalised under US sanctions on Iran.

The US is now revoking that exception as part of its “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, aiming to isolate the Iranian regime economically and diplomatically.

Implications / Challenges

Once the waiver ends, those involved in Chabahar port operations or related activities could become subject to sanctions under IFCA.

This is a major setback for India’s ability to use Chabahar as a trade & transit hub to Afghanistan and Central Asia, since risks increase for companies, suppliers, or financiers.

It underscores how US foreign policy—especially sanctions on Iran—can directly affect India’s infrastructure and regional connectivity projects.
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Indonesia Suspends Indian Groundnut Imports Due to Aflatoxin Contamination: Learn about this toxic fungal metabolite and its impact on food trade.
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2025/10/23 07:33:50
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