Italy, Final election result:

Calabria regional parliament election

CDX-EPP|ECR|PfE: 58.0% (+2.3)
CSX-LEFT|S&D|G/EFA|RE: 41.1% (+10.0)
DSP (~NI): 0.9% (+0.9)

+/- vs. 2021 election result

➤ europeelects.eu/italy

#Calabria #Regionali2025

Italy, Final election result:

Calabria regional parliament, seats

FI-EPP: 7
FdI-ECR: 4
OP-EPP: 4 (+4)
PD-S&D: 4 (-1)
LEGA-PfE: 3 (-1)
NM-EPP: 2 (+2)
TP-S&D|LEFT: 2 (+2)
M5S-LEFT: 1 (-1)
CR-IV-RE|S&D: 1 (+1)
DeP-S&D: 1 (+1)
UDC-EPP: 0 (-1)
FA-EPP: 0 (-2)

+/- vs. 2021 election result

➤ europeelects.eu/italy

#Calabria #Regionali2025

Poland, Research Partner poll:

PiS-ECR: 32% (-4)
KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 30% (-1)
Kon-ESN|PfE: 13%
Lewica-S&D: 7%
KKP-NI: 6% (+2)
Razem-LEFT: 4% (+1)
PL2050-RE: 3%
NF-S&D: 2% (new)
PSL-EPP: 1% (-1)
BS-G/EFA: 0% (new)

+/- vs. 22-25 August 2025

Fieldwork: 26-29 September 2025
Sample size: 1,070

➤ europeelects.eu/poland

Germany, INSA poll:

AfD-ESN: 27% (+1)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 25% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 15% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 12%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11%
BSW-NI: 4%
FDP-RE: 4%

+/- vs. 29 September - 02 October 2025

Fieldwork: 02-06 October 2025
Sample size: 2010

➤ europeelects.eu/germany

Germany, Forsa poll:

AfD-ESN: 26% (-1)
CDU/CSU-EPP: 24%
SPD-S&D: 13%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12%
LINKE-LEFT: 12% (+1)
BSW-NI: 4%
FDP-RE: 3%

+/- vs. 23-29 September 2025

Fieldwork: 30 September - 06 October 2025
Sample size: 2001

➤ europeelects.eu/germany

UK (GB), YouGov poll:

REFORM~NI: 27% (-2)
LAB-S&D: 20% (-2)
CON~ECR: 17% (+1)
LDEM-RE: 17% (+2)
GREENS-G/EFA: 12% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 4% (+1)
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 28-29 September 2025

Fieldwork: 05-06 October 2025
Sample size: 2,333

➤ europeelects.eu/uk

Spain, Sigma Dos poll:

PP-EPP: 34%
PSOE-S&D: 27%
VOX-PfE: 16% (+1)
Sumar-LEFT|G/EFA: 7% (-1)
Podemos-LEFT: 4%
ERC-G/EFA: 2%
SALF-ECR|NI: 1%
Junts-NI: 1%
EH Bildu-LEFT: 1%
EAJ PNV-RE: 1%
BNG-G/EFA: 1%
CC-RE: 1%
UPN-*: 0%

+/- vs. 20-28 August 2025

Fieldwork: 17 September - 01 October 2025
Sample size: 2,345

➤ europeelects.eu/spain

Poland, United Surveys poll:

KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 32% (-2)
PiS-ECR: 31% (-2)
Kon-ESN|PfE: 16% (+1)
Lewica-S&D: 8% (+1)
PSL-EPP: 5% (+1)
KKP-NI: 4% (-1)
Razem-LEFT: 2% (+1)
PL2050-RE: 2% (+1)

+/- vs. 13-15 September 2025

Fieldwork: 26-28 September 2025
Sample size: 1,000

➤ europeelects.eu/poland

Iceland, Gallup poll:

S-S&D: 34% (-1)
D-EPP: 20%
C-RE: 13%
M~ECR: 12% (+1)
F~S&D: 7%
B~RE: 6% (+1)
V~LEFT: 4%
P-G/EFA: 3% (-1)
J-*: 2%

+/- vs. 01-31 August 2025

Fieldwork: 01-30 September 2025
Sample size: 4,693

➤ europeelects.eu/iceland

Iceland, Maskína poll:

S-S&D: 32%
D-EPP: 19%
C-RE: 14% (-2)
M~ECR: 9% (-1)
B~RE: 6% (-1)
F~S&D: 6% (-1)
P-G/EFA: 6% (+1)
V~LEFT: 4%
J-*: 4% (+1)

+/- vs. 01-21 August 2025

Fieldwork: 04-19 September 2025
Sample size: 1,713

➤ europeelects.eu/iceland

Portugal, CESOP-UCP poll:

Lisbon mayoral election

Leitão (PS/L/BE/PAN-S&D|G/EFA|LEFT): 36% (-8)
Moedas (PSD/CDS/IL-EPP|RE): 35% (-5)
Mascarenhas (CH-PfE): 12% (+7)
J. Ferreira (CDU-LEFT|Greens/EFA): 8% (-3)
Dentinho (PPM/PTP-ECR|*): 2% (new)
Líber (ND-*): 1% (+1)
A. Ferreira (ADN→ECR): 1% (+1)

+/- vs. 2021 election

Fieldwork: 27-29 September 2025
Sample size: 1,066

➤ europeelects.eu/portugal

Estonia’s once-dominant liberal parties are facing irrelevance, while the opposition has regrouped and seems poised to win in large parts of the Baltic state.

https://europeelects.eu/2025/10/07/estonia-local-elections-uncharted/

📰 The September issue of our newsletter is now live on our Substack. Read our updates on government dysfunction in Kosovo and France, a blowout reelection in Moldova, and a comeback in Norway.

⬇️

https://open.substack.com/pub/europeelects/p/europe-elects-newsletter-cc7?r=gc2s3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

France, OpinionWay poll:

Others: 6%

RN and allies-PfE: 33%
PCF/LÉ/PS-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 18% (n.a.)
Ensemble-RE: 14% (-8)
LR-EPP: 12% (+3)
LFI-LEFT: 9% (n.a.)
REC-ESN: 6% (+5)
LO-*: 2% (+1)

+/- vs. 2024 election

Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,012

➤ europeelects.eu/france

France, OpinionWay poll:

Others: 6%

RN and allies-PfE: 34% (+1)
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 24% (-5)
Ensemble-RE: 16% (-6)
LR-EPP: 13% (+4)
REC-ESN: 5% (+4)
LO-*: 2% (+1)

+/- vs. 2024 election

Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,012

➤ europeelects.eu/france

France, Toluna-Harris poll:

Scenario: Philippe (HOR-RE) and Bardella (RN-PfE) run

Presidential election

Bardella (RN-PfE): 35% (+5)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 15% (-6)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14%
Glucksmann (PS/PP-S&D): 12% (+2)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 10% (-3)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 6% (+1)
Tondelier (LÉ-Greens/EFA): 3%
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 3%
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 1% (n.a.)
Arthaud (*): 1%

+/- vs. 19 May 2025

Fieldwork: 07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,124

➤ europeelects.eu/france

France, Toluna-Harris poll:

Scenario: Philippe (HOR-RE) and Le Pen (RN-PfE) run

Presidential election

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 34% (+3)
Philippe (HOR-RE): 16% (-5)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14%
Glucksmann (PS/PP-S&D): 12% (+2)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 10% (-2)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 6% (+1)
Tondelier (LÉ-Greens/EFA): 3%
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 3%
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 1% (n.a.)
Arthaud (*): 1%

+/- vs. 19 May 2025

Fieldwork: 07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,124

➤ europeelects.eu/france

France, Toluna-Harris poll:

Scenario: Attal (RE-RE) and Bardella (RN-PfE) run

Presidential election

Bardella (RN-PfE): 35% (+4)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14%
Glucksmann (PS/PP-S&D): 14% (+3)
Attal (RE-RE): 12% (-3)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 11% (-6)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 6% (+1)
Tondelier (LÉ-Greens/EFA): 3%
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 3%
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 1% (n.a.)
Arthaud (*): 1%

+/- vs. 19 May 2025

Fieldwork: 07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,124

➤ europeelects.eu/france

Italy, EMG poll:

FdI-ECR: 28% (-1)
PD-S&D: 22% (-1)
M5S-LEFT: 13% (+1)
FI-EPP: 10% (+1)
LEGA-PfE: 8%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 6% (-1)
Azione-RE: 3%
IV-RE: 3% (+1)
+E-RE: 2%
NM-EPP: 1%
DSP~NI: 1%
PLD-RE: 1%

+/- vs. 06 June 2025

Fieldwork: 17 September - 01 October 2025
Sample size: 1,000

➤ europeelects.eu/italy

France, Toluna-Harris poll:

Scenario: Attal (RE-RE) and Le Pen (RN-PfE) run

Presidential election

Le Pen (RN-PfE): 34% (+3)
Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 14% (-1)
Glucksmann (PS/PP-S&D): 14% (+3)
Attal (RE-RE): 12% (-3)
Retailleau (LR-EPP): 11% (-5)
Zemmour (REC-ESN): 6% (+1)
Tondelier (LÉ-Greens/EFA): 3%
Roussel (PCF-LEFT): 3%
Dupont-Aignan (DLF→ECR): 2% (n.a.)
Arthaud (*): 1%

+/- vs. 19 May 2025

Fieldwork: 07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,124

➤ europeelects.eu/france