Trade Watcher
Investors are piling into tech stocks
U.S. tech saw $4.4B in inflows last week — the highest since June 2024 and 4x more than all other sectors combined.
The 4-week average stands at $1.5B per week.
Institutional buying hit $3B — a record since 2008, according to BofA. As a share of total market cap, that ranks in the top 2% historically.
U.S. tech saw $4.4B in inflows last week — the highest since June 2024 and 4x more than all other sectors combined.
The 4-week average stands at $1.5B per week.
Institutional buying hit $3B — a record since 2008, according to BofA. As a share of total market cap, that ranks in the top 2% historically.
Trade Watcher
U.S. current account deficit hits record $450B in Q1
The U.S. current account deficit jumped 44% in Q1 2025 to $450.2B — the largest on record.
That’s 6% of GDP, the highest since 2006. On an annualized basis, the gap hits $1.8 trillion.
The surge came as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of new tariffs, pushing the trade imbalance to historic levels.
The U.S. current account deficit jumped 44% in Q1 2025 to $450.2B — the largest on record.
That’s 6% of GDP, the highest since 2006. On an annualized basis, the gap hits $1.8 trillion.
The surge came as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of new tariffs, pushing the trade imbalance to historic levels.
Trade Watcher
DEEPSEEK’s next-gen AI model delayed amid Nvidia chip crunch
China-based DEEPSEEK is facing major delays in launching its R2 model due to worsening $NVDA chip shortages.
U.S. export bans on H20 GPUs have severely limited supply, according to cloud providers, slowing deployment and impacting performance.
China-based DEEPSEEK is facing major delays in launching its R2 model due to worsening $NVDA chip shortages.
U.S. export bans on H20 GPUs have severely limited supply, according to cloud providers, slowing deployment and impacting performance.
Trade Watcher
Semiconductor stocks hit record size in S&P 500
Chip stocks now make up 12.1% of the S&P 500 — the highest ever, and double what it was three years ago.
The $SOX index is up ~111% in that time, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 61% gain.
Nvidia alone accounts for 56% of the sector’s market cap and just hit a $3.8T valuation, reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company.
Semiconductors are on a historic run.
Chip stocks now make up 12.1% of the S&P 500 — the highest ever, and double what it was three years ago.
The $SOX index is up ~111% in that time, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 61% gain.
Nvidia alone accounts for 56% of the sector’s market cap and just hit a $3.8T valuation, reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company.
Semiconductors are on a historic run.
Trade Watcher
U.S. debt could hit 218% of GDP in 30 years
If the new spending bill (OBBBA) becomes permanent and rates stay high, U.S. debt could soar by $55 trillion by 2054 — pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 218%, per CRFB.
Even under current terms, the bill may add $15 trillion and raise the ratio to 172%.
Bottom line: the U.S. is on a dangerously unsustainable fiscal path.
If the new spending bill (OBBBA) becomes permanent and rates stay high, U.S. debt could soar by $55 trillion by 2054 — pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 218%, per CRFB.
Even under current terms, the bill may add $15 trillion and raise the ratio to 172%.
Bottom line: the U.S. is on a dangerously unsustainable fiscal path.
Trade Watcher
In case you forgot:
President Trump's 90-day tariff pause now only has 13 days remaining.
This means without any new trade deals, on July 9th, tariff rates will rise as follows:
1. Country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" return
2. Tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports
3. 30% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in effect
4. Global 10% baseline tariffs remains in effect
The S&P 500 is now ~1,200 points higher than it was on April 9th, when the 90-day pause was announced.
The trade war will soon take the spotlight again.
President Trump's 90-day tariff pause now only has 13 days remaining.
This means without any new trade deals, on July 9th, tariff rates will rise as follows:
1. Country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" return
2. Tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports
3. 30% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in effect
4. Global 10% baseline tariffs remains in effect
The S&P 500 is now ~1,200 points higher than it was on April 9th, when the 90-day pause was announced.
The trade war will soon take the spotlight again.