💦History teaches its lessons; it’s up to you whether you learn them or not. Niall Ferguson once wrote: “The longer the world goes without a major global war, the more unimaginable its outbreak becomes—and the easier it is for it to start.”

In March 1938, Nazi German forces began military maneuvers along the borders of Czechoslovakia, and a representative of the Sudetenland (the German-speaking separatist region) demanded secession from Czechoslovakia and annexation to Germany. It was abundantly clear what was unfolding—the same dynamic we see today between Russia and Ukraine. After annexing Austria into its territory, Nazi Germany sought to absorb all of Czechoslovakia as well, with separatist regions serving merely as a pretext to test the resolve of European powers.

It was at the infamous Munich Conference that leaders of European powers—Italy, France, and Britain—displayed utter indifference to the fate of Europe’s people. In a bid to avoid confrontation with Hitler, they signed an agreement in September 1938, ceding the Sudetenland to him without a single Czechoslovak representative present during the negotiations or signing. Within the next six months, through Hitler’s calculated aggression and schemes, Czechoslovakia was entirely erased from the map of Europe. Like any totalitarian leader riding on the backs of their citizens, Hitler constantly spoke of building a greater Germany.

To the British, scarred by the horrors of the First World War, appeasing Hitler seemed a way to avoid the need for another global conflict. Things in London had reached such a point that, before the Munich Conference and amid fears of war, the city police stationed officers in front of the wild animal cages at the zoo, ready to shoot the beasts if bombs struck and the cages broke open. In such an atmosphere, across Europe—and especially in Britain—there were politicians who genuinely believed that a policy of accommodation with Hitler could prevent a larger war.

On a rainy autumn day, a large crowd gathered in London to welcome back Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain (Britain’s leader before Churchill) after he signed the Munich Agreement with Nazi Germany. The plane doors opened, the Prime Minister stepped out, and amid the cheers of the crowd, he began to speak. A year later, the Second World War broke out, and the rest is history. Chamberlain and politicians like him, in their pitifully naive optimism, insisted: “Look, the Germans themselves signed this agreement with us—they don’t want war; they want peace.”

When facing a war-hungry tyrant, force is the only rational option. Talk of peace is only useful when the tyrant knows that starting a war would mean the end of their reign. As the wisdom of the ancients teaches us: If you want peace, prepare for war.

➡️Reza Ghanipour
☑@The_Economist_Telegram

💦 Bitcoin's Current Corrective Phase: a Historical Pattern Repeating?
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Bitcoin is currently shaping its third corrective pattern within its ongoing bullish cycle that began in early 2023, as indicated by the UTXO Age Bands for the 1-3 month and 3-6 month bands.

During the summers of 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin entered multi-month corrective phases, each lasting approximately six months. Throughout these periods, the 3-6 month band trended upwards, closing the gap with the 1-3 month band.

This movement historically acted as a resistance zone, where Bitcoin initially faced rejection before breaking through and igniting its next bullish rally.

If history repeats itself, the current correction could persist for another 2 to 3 months, with BTC ranging between $80K and $100K. In this scenario, a decisive breakout above $100K could mark the end of the corrective phase, potentially paving the way for a rally toward $130K.

Market participants should closely watch the structural dynamics of the premium bands, as a confirmed break above resistance could signal the next parabolic leg of Bitcoin’s bull market.

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🔴the economist _ March 2st 2025

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🔴the economist _ March 2st 2025

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🧬 Epigenetic signatures of intergenerational exposure to violence in three generations of Syrian refugees

Maternal trauma influences infant and adult health outcomes and may impact future generations through epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation (DNAm)

➡️Link
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☀️ Sixty percent of the new electricity generation capacity added worldwide in 2024 will be based on solar energy, and it is expected that this share will reach 75 percent by 2027.

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🔴Wooden Door of the Egyptian Sanctuary

Darius the Great, the King of Persia, worships the god Anubis as Pharaoh of Egypt. The goddess Isis stands behind Anubis. On the hieroglyphic inscription, the name Darius the Great is seen within an oval cartouche, which is typically reserved for the names of Egyptian kings. This artifact is housed in the British Museum.

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#GALAUSDT Week CHART

As #Gala Dropped more than 50% from our previous analysis and made this idea perfect, let's provide you an update for a Weekly Roadmap of this coin.

🔸 This Weekly Range has made the current Support Zone almost Useless and have taken out, all of the orders remaining so it is not a good zone for trading, anymore. We will most likely see the breakout (probably after another leg up, which is not a good trade) and the Blue levels can be our Monthly Buy Zones for the next Rally of this Altcoin.

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💛If you believe in the long-term growth of Bitcoin, price dips can be a good opportunity to buy at a lower price and profit when the price rises again. You might not have heard of the term "Realized Price." This price is calculated based on the last time each Bitcoin was moved. Currently, this price is in the range of 43,000to43,000to44,000.

🔹In this chart, you can see three important things:

1️⃣Bitcoin Price: This is shown in rainbow colors. It indicates the price of Bitcoin for each day and uses colors to show how many days are left until the halving.

2️⃣ Bitcoin Realized Price: This is a yellow line on the chart. It shows the realized price of Bitcoin, which is the average price at which each coin was last moved on the Bitcoin network.

3️⃣ Realized Price Oscillator: This is a gray dotted chart at the bottom of the graph. It shows the ratio of Bitcoin's price to its realized price. If you see a red line, it indicates level 1, where the Bitcoin price equals the realized price.

🔹If the Realized Price Oscillator goes too high, it might mean that the price of Bitcoin is rising very quickly, but the coins are not being used or moved much on the network.

🔹Another interesting point is that the realized price often acts as a price support. If the realized price is low, it could mean that those who bought their Bitcoin years ago at lower prices have not yet sold their coins. When they decide to sell their coins and send them to exchanges, the realized price rises, creating a new price floor. link

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🔍An Interesting Memory About Capital Structure from Professor Merton Miller
It’s so hard to explain this briefly. After Professor Modigliani won the Nobel Prize in Economics, the crew from a local Chicago TV station swarmed me right away. They said, “We know you worked with Modigliani years ago to develop the Modigliani-Miller theorems, and we’d like to know if you could explain them shortly for our viewers.” I asked, “How short?” They replied, “In 10 seconds.” Ten seconds to explain something that took a lifetime!

I used an analogy from our original paper and said, “Think of a company as a giant vat full of milk. A farmer who gets milk from his cows can sell it as is, or separate the cream and sell it at a much higher price than the milk itself (here, selling cream is like a company issuing bonds at a low discount rate, thus at a high price).

What’s left for the farmer is skim milk, with hardly any cream, so it sells at a much lower price than the original milk. Skim milk is like equity with leverage added to it.

The Modigliani-Miller theorem says that if separating the cream from the milk costs nothing, and the government has no programs to support farmers, the total money from selling the cream plus the skim milk equals what you’d get from selling the whole milk directly.”

The TV reporters asked, “Isn’t there a simpler way to put it?” 
I said, “Think of a company as a huge pizza divided into four slices. The Modigliani-Miller theorem says that if you cut each of those four slices in half (making eight slices total), you’ll have more pieces, but you don’t have more pizza.” 

Still a long explanation. This time, the reporters didn’t complain; they packed up their gear, thanked me for my time, and never came back.

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