Many of you have been asking me about some overall market update and what I think about where crypto is headed. So, here is a general overview of my personal opinion based on the market facts and outlook.
Global economics:
Most G7 central banks have started to signal interest rate cuts, with Canada being the first of G7 to have actually cut interest rate for the first time in about 4 years. What would that typically mean for crypto? Generally people would say speculators are going to start loading up their bags. Then why do we see a decline in the prices? Fed signaled they are going to cut interest rates soon, so this should have opened the flood gates, and most importantly, its the anticipation which moves the market, not the facts after they have happened. If something has already happened, there is no new value to be gained from it.
The simple deduction from here is, crypto volume and players have shifted too drastically. Most volume are no longer controlled by typical "whales" from back in the days. Most major and traded crypto are now very much in control of the biggest asset management companies.
Price sustainability:
The orderbook of crypto has always been a very pointy pyramid, both on the buy and the sell side. Meaning, the market cap of crypto has always been dependent on pretty much based on the trade decisions of the 0.5% or less of the transactions taking place in comparison to the whole order books. But, now with the involvement of big asset management companies, those battles between 0.5% pointy pyramids are no longer sustainable. They already started to own a majority, but on the other hand it would not be sustainable, then what do they do? They trade in between them without ever bringing such trades to the open market. With this, we might as well be the very last generation of people to witness crypto exchanges as we know it.
Regulations:
It has become increasingly difficult to convert crypto to cash in most of EU and NA as they have came very far in terms of implementing regulations. Yes, if you are a small time player, then it doesn't really affect you. However, anyone with over 100k or more, its going to be a nightmare to convert it to fiat to buy something meaningful with it, eg. a house, when the source of fund is shown to be crypto. Does it mean crypto is going to have a slow death if you can't really use it for something meaningful? No! This simply means private wallet transactions are going to become worthless soon enough as only KYCed exchange transactions will be allowed into the economy.
What does that mean for us traders?
Crypto trading will soon become like forex trading. The actual crypto will only be held by a handful of companies and organizations while providing you with cfds to trade with. Anyone else with large actual crypto in private wallets will either be surveillanced or be worthless as you can't cash it into the "white" economy. If you think mixers and privacy coins are your escape gateway, then you have no idea how in depth government agencies have gotten into it. Just google and look at the bundle of sheets being sent around for crypto audits in any of the G7. You will be amazed by their details, even people who are crypto experts for 20 years didn't think of stuffs thats in those audit notes. Like fuck your mixers and privacy coins, thats not going to save you from being surveillanced at best, or allow you to ever include that money into the economy at worst. While converting DEX traded coins will be even difficult to proceed as you would be responsible to prove your counterpart order didn't come from an illegitimate means, which will be impossible for you to prove.
Global economics:
Most G7 central banks have started to signal interest rate cuts, with Canada being the first of G7 to have actually cut interest rate for the first time in about 4 years. What would that typically mean for crypto? Generally people would say speculators are going to start loading up their bags. Then why do we see a decline in the prices? Fed signaled they are going to cut interest rates soon, so this should have opened the flood gates, and most importantly, its the anticipation which moves the market, not the facts after they have happened. If something has already happened, there is no new value to be gained from it.
The simple deduction from here is, crypto volume and players have shifted too drastically. Most volume are no longer controlled by typical "whales" from back in the days. Most major and traded crypto are now very much in control of the biggest asset management companies.
Price sustainability:
The orderbook of crypto has always been a very pointy pyramid, both on the buy and the sell side. Meaning, the market cap of crypto has always been dependent on pretty much based on the trade decisions of the 0.5% or less of the transactions taking place in comparison to the whole order books. But, now with the involvement of big asset management companies, those battles between 0.5% pointy pyramids are no longer sustainable. They already started to own a majority, but on the other hand it would not be sustainable, then what do they do? They trade in between them without ever bringing such trades to the open market. With this, we might as well be the very last generation of people to witness crypto exchanges as we know it.
Regulations:
It has become increasingly difficult to convert crypto to cash in most of EU and NA as they have came very far in terms of implementing regulations. Yes, if you are a small time player, then it doesn't really affect you. However, anyone with over 100k or more, its going to be a nightmare to convert it to fiat to buy something meaningful with it, eg. a house, when the source of fund is shown to be crypto. Does it mean crypto is going to have a slow death if you can't really use it for something meaningful? No! This simply means private wallet transactions are going to become worthless soon enough as only KYCed exchange transactions will be allowed into the economy.
What does that mean for us traders?
Crypto trading will soon become like forex trading. The actual crypto will only be held by a handful of companies and organizations while providing you with cfds to trade with. Anyone else with large actual crypto in private wallets will either be surveillanced or be worthless as you can't cash it into the "white" economy. If you think mixers and privacy coins are your escape gateway, then you have no idea how in depth government agencies have gotten into it. Just google and look at the bundle of sheets being sent around for crypto audits in any of the G7. You will be amazed by their details, even people who are crypto experts for 20 years didn't think of stuffs thats in those audit notes. Like fuck your mixers and privacy coins, thats not going to save you from being surveillanced at best, or allow you to ever include that money into the economy at worst. While converting DEX traded coins will be even difficult to proceed as you would be responsible to prove your counterpart order didn't come from an illegitimate means, which will be impossible for you to prove.
❤119
How is it all going to affect us?
Over 80% of typical binance like exchange traders are going to be affected by this. Our way of trading will be phased out. Our dependencies and market control is going to change dramatically. It will become easier for them to control the price as actual settlements will happen in private, off market. While your trade will become increasingly lesser and lesser important/effective. If you have been involved in forex trading, then you would know there's A book brokers and B book brokers. Crypto will increasingly move towards a B book settings, where the exchange/broker itself is the counter party of your order/position.
Why should that bother you and why would that happen?
It would bother you because the orderbooks, trades, charts and everything that you analyze to make your trade decisions will become obsolete. Yes, you will be participating in a market, but that market will exist just for the sake of existing, just to put up a show. Overall, you will just be participating in a casino (where the house always wins), not against other actual traders. (However, like always your beloved @Altchica is already a step ahead to fight this unfair fight for you with you.)
With majority of important crypto being under control of asset management companies, they would rather choose to take a loss if need be and hand you over meaningless crypto cfds or $$$ that they can influence to get printed as much as needed, than hand you over the underlying assets (the actual crypto).
How does all of these reflect on your own holdings?
Long term crypto vision is now no longer the same as it was 2-3 years ago. Crypto is going to become very tamed on price movements to only serve and profit its new lords. People thought welcoming ETFs were a good idea. However, though being highly manipulative before, it still killed an open and free market as once we knew it.
Bitcoin price observability:
BTC's liquidity is in a very weird position. I don't see any strong liquidity to the upside. For the next few days, I expect BTC to slowly go down to sweep off the liquidity at the 61-62k zone. Movements from then onwards will depend on the later market conditions.
Final verdict?
Enjoy the last months of the open wild west of crypto and be adaptable to the idea where you would have to adjust to the new norms of crypto. Hence, you need to come to acceptance that all your old knowledge of crypto trading strategies needs to be updated to adapt to the new game field. Remember, to win in a game you must first know who your opponents are and only then you can make your analyzed moves. Most people don't even know who fills the counter part of their trade orders, or even thinks to ask the right questions. Luckily you have @Altchica by your side. To keep updated with new market shifts and outlook BEYOND typical news (that everyone knows about and helps you make absolutely nothing), join VIP by reaching out to @Zchica. At @Altchica we share data and news that actually makes your wallet move.
Over 80% of typical binance like exchange traders are going to be affected by this. Our way of trading will be phased out. Our dependencies and market control is going to change dramatically. It will become easier for them to control the price as actual settlements will happen in private, off market. While your trade will become increasingly lesser and lesser important/effective. If you have been involved in forex trading, then you would know there's A book brokers and B book brokers. Crypto will increasingly move towards a B book settings, where the exchange/broker itself is the counter party of your order/position.
Why should that bother you and why would that happen?
It would bother you because the orderbooks, trades, charts and everything that you analyze to make your trade decisions will become obsolete. Yes, you will be participating in a market, but that market will exist just for the sake of existing, just to put up a show. Overall, you will just be participating in a casino (where the house always wins), not against other actual traders. (However, like always your beloved @Altchica is already a step ahead to fight this unfair fight for you with you.)
With majority of important crypto being under control of asset management companies, they would rather choose to take a loss if need be and hand you over meaningless crypto cfds or $$$ that they can influence to get printed as much as needed, than hand you over the underlying assets (the actual crypto).
How does all of these reflect on your own holdings?
Long term crypto vision is now no longer the same as it was 2-3 years ago. Crypto is going to become very tamed on price movements to only serve and profit its new lords. People thought welcoming ETFs were a good idea. However, though being highly manipulative before, it still killed an open and free market as once we knew it.
Bitcoin price observability:
BTC's liquidity is in a very weird position. I don't see any strong liquidity to the upside. For the next few days, I expect BTC to slowly go down to sweep off the liquidity at the 61-62k zone. Movements from then onwards will depend on the later market conditions.
Final verdict?
Enjoy the last months of the open wild west of crypto and be adaptable to the idea where you would have to adjust to the new norms of crypto. Hence, you need to come to acceptance that all your old knowledge of crypto trading strategies needs to be updated to adapt to the new game field. Remember, to win in a game you must first know who your opponents are and only then you can make your analyzed moves. Most people don't even know who fills the counter part of their trade orders, or even thinks to ask the right questions. Luckily you have @Altchica by your side. To keep updated with new market shifts and outlook BEYOND typical news (that everyone knows about and helps you make absolutely nothing), join VIP by reaching out to @Zchica. At @Altchica we share data and news that actually makes your wallet move.
❤156
AltChica VIP
ETH/USDT LONG VIP: Entry: 3070 Target 1: 3120 Target 2: 3160 Target 3: 3200 S/L: 3020
WIN! ✅
ETH/USDT hit Target 1! 🏆
At 10x leverage its 16% profit!🔥
ETH/USDT hit Target 1! 🏆
At 10x leverage its 16% profit!🔥
❤27
AltChica VIP
ETH/USDT LONG VIP: Entry: 3070 Target 1: 3120 Target 2: 3160 Target 3: 3200 S/L: 3020
WIN! ✅✅
ETH/USDT hit Target 2! 🏆
At 10x leverage its 30% profit!🔥
ETH/USDT hit Target 2! 🏆
At 10x leverage its 30% profit!🔥
❤30