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[3rd Party Analysis]
[Orbit Trade Idea] What are the Odds of BTC Hitting a New High?

Bitcoin has retraced from its all-time high of 73k reached in March. The question on everyone's mind now: What are the odds of BTC revisiting and surpassing this ATH in the next 3 months?

The option market is currently pricing a 17.5% probability of BTC reclaiming the 73k in 3 month time. For those confident in this scenario, a binary option offers attractive risk-reward.

1. Basic Binary Option:

Notional: $1 million USD
Maturity: 3 months
Spot Reference: 57500
Strike: 73k
Premium: $175k USD
Payoff: If BTC >= 73k at maturity, you receive $1 million USD (5.7x return); Else, you receive zero.

2. Binary Option with Knock-Out Barrier:

If you anticipate BTC will reach a new high but not go too far, you can further cheapen the cost of this trade by adding a knock-out barrier at 90k. Here is how it works:

Notional: $1 million USD
Maturity: 3 months
Spot Reference: 57500
Strike: 73k
Knock-Out Barrier: 90k
Premium: $100k USD
Payoff: If BTC >= 73k at maturity AND it never breaches 90k at any point, you receive $1 million USD (10x return); Else, you receive zero.

(Not investment advice)

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