DEEPSEEK’s next-gen AI model delayed amid Nvidia chip crunch

China-based DEEPSEEK is facing major delays in launching its R2 model due to worsening $NVDA chip shortages.

U.S. export bans on H20 GPUs have severely limited supply, according to cloud providers, slowing deployment and impacting performance.

Semiconductor stocks hit record size in S&P 500

Chip stocks now make up 12.1% of the S&P 500 — the highest ever, and double what it was three years ago.

The $SOX index is up ~111% in that time, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 61% gain.

Nvidia alone accounts for 56% of the sector’s market cap and just hit a $3.8T valuation, reclaiming its spot as the world’s most valuable company.

Semiconductors are on a historic run.

World debt has now officially crossed $300 trillion

And still continues to climb aggressively

JUST IN: Tesla HR executive Jenna Ferrua reportedly leaves the company.

U.S. debt could hit 218% of GDP in 30 years

If the new spending bill (OBBBA) becomes permanent and rates stay high, U.S. debt could soar by $55 trillion by 2054 — pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 218%, per CRFB.

Even under current terms, the bill may add $15 trillion and raise the ratio to 172%.

Bottom line: the U.S. is on a dangerously unsustainable fiscal path.

JUST IN: The White House announces Trump can set reciprocal tariff rates if negotiations collapse.

In case you forgot:

President Trump's 90-day tariff pause now only has 13 days remaining.

This means without any new trade deals, on July 9th, tariff rates will rise as follows:

1. Country-specific "reciprocal tariffs" return
2. Tariffs of up to 50% on EU imports
3. 30% tariffs on Chinese imports remain in effect
4. Global 10% baseline tariffs remains in effect

The S&P 500 is now ~1,200 points higher than it was on April 9th, when the 90-day pause was announced.

The trade war will soon take the spotlight again.

what breakout traders look like:

- open interest increasing
- aggression in volume
- all above a swing pivot

once pushed offside, they offer fuel for reversion by being forced out of their positions.

example above

President Trump announced that he signed a trade deal with China yesterday, despite no official announcement being made at the time.

Mexican bank accused of cartel ties has access to Fed payment system

A Mexican bank accused by the U.S. Treasury of laundering cartel funds has a U.S. subsidiary with a Fed master account — granting direct access to America’s payment system.

The account was opened in 2021, around the time crypto firms like Kraken were being denied similar access.

Intercam Banco denies the allegations, citing nearly 30 years of AML and CTF compliance.

U.S.–China trade talks back on — rare earths take center stage

Trade between the U.S. and China is officially back in focus, with rare earth exports listed as a top priority.

The materials are critical for tech, defense, and green energy — making them a key issue in renewed negotiations.

Japanese investors buying domestic bonds at fastest pace since 2007

Japanese investors are snapping up local government bonds at a record rate, marking the strongest buying spree since 2007.

Apple updates App Store rules in EU under DMA pressure

Apple has revised its App Store policies in the EU to comply with the Digital Markets Act:

• 20% fee on in-app purchases (13% for small businesses)
• 5–15% fee for directing users to external payment systems
• Developers must display Apple’s special prompt before redirecting users

The European Commission has launched a review to assess compliance.

Epic Games’ CEO slammed the changes as “blatantly illegal” and aimed at crushing competition.

The Federal Reserve's Kashkari anticipates two interest rate cuts in 2025, potentially starting in September. He notes that if cuts occur in September and tariff effects emerge later, there may be a pause in further rate reductions.

JUST IN: In May, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, increased to 2.3%, matching expectations. However, core PCE inflation rose to 2.7%, exceeding the anticipated 2.6%. This marks the first rise in PCE inflation since February 2025. The Federal Reserve plans to maintain its current pause.

Taiwan investors are dumping U.S. bonds at fastest pace since Covid

Taiwanese investors are selling U.S. Treasuries at the most aggressive rate since the start of the pandemic.