you can’t build confidence from theory, confidence comes from execution

you show up when it’s boring, you follow the rules when it’s hard

you keep going when you feel like giving up

that’s how conviction is built, character gets forged, and self-respect emerges

JUST IN: OpenAI has secured customized AI contracts with the Pentagon, the government of India, and Grab, according to The Information.

Trump on Powell:

“We have a stupid person working at the Fed.

Very qualified — but maybe not the right fit for us.

The interest rate should be at 1% or 2%.”

JUST IN: President Trump mentioned that he does not believe extending the July 9th deadline for the 90-day tariff pause is necessary, but it remains a possibility.

JUST IN: Donald Trump expressed intentions to halt trade negotiations with Canada unless they eliminate specific taxes, according to a Fox News interview.

Key Events This Week

— Tuesday, July 1
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
• JOLTS Job Openings
• ISM Manufacturing Prices

— Wednesday, July 2
• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

— Thursday, July 3
• Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• Non-Farm Payrolls
• Unemployment Rate
• Unemployment Claims
• ISM Services PMI

— Friday, July 4
• U.S. Bank Holiday — markets closed or low activity

Basics

$AMZN is entering its most bullish stretch of the year.

Since 2010, the first half of July has delivered gains nearly 80% of the time, averaging +6%.

With Prime Day ahead and momentum building, its one to watch

JUST IN: Donald Trump states he is not providing any offers to Iran.

price returning to prior value:

- offside traders close position
- inefficiencies get filled
- late traders begin to enter

all of which can be fuel for reversion.

example ↑

China overnight data surprises to the upside

• Manufacturing PMI: Beat
• Services PMI: Beat
• Composite PMI: Beat

Stronger-than-expected numbers across the board signal resilience in China’s economic activity.

Tesla shares down again premarket after multi-day slide

$TSLA is down 1.3% in premarket trading, extending its decline after dropping 9.5% over the past four sessions.

JUST IN: Bybit has collaborated with Swiss issuer Backed to introduce tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on its platform.

• COINX and NVDAX will be listed at 10 PM tonight.
• Supported assets include AAPLX, GOOGLX, and AMZNX.

Julius Baer: Fed may start cutting rates in October

– The Swiss bank expects 4 rate cuts of 25 bps starting in October.
– By March 2026, the rate could fall from 4.5% to 3.5%.
– After that, the Fed is likely to pause.
– The main reason is easing inflation, not recession or rising unemployment.
– Inflation is projected to stay around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.