Trade Watcher
The Telegraph: Fed independence is already dead — Trump will get his way
The Fed is acting like a “shadow government” with little democratic oversight, the article argues.
While Trump’s approach may be questionable, he’s right about one thing: central banks shouldn’t hold unchecked power.
The Fed has effectively lost its independence and seems ready to bend to Trump’s agenda.
The Fed is acting like a “shadow government” with little democratic oversight, the article argues.
While Trump’s approach may be questionable, he’s right about one thing: central banks shouldn’t hold unchecked power.
The Fed has effectively lost its independence and seems ready to bend to Trump’s agenda.
Trade Watcher
Big Tech is driving the market rally
Since the April 7 market bottom, the S&P 500 is up ~20% — but it’s large-cap tech that’s doing the heavy lifting:
– Microsoft and Meta: +40%
– Netflix: +50%
– Nvidia: +60%
This surge shows the current rally is heavily concentrated in a few major tech names.
Since the April 7 market bottom, the S&P 500 is up ~20% — but it’s large-cap tech that’s doing the heavy lifting:
– Microsoft and Meta: +40%
– Netflix: +50%
– Nvidia: +60%
This surge shows the current rally is heavily concentrated in a few major tech names.
Trade Watcher
Gold demand shifts East as Western appetite fades
Retail gold demand is falling in North America and Western Europe — now down three years in a row.
Meanwhile, Asia, South America, and Africa are steadily buying more. In Q1 2025, this created the widest East-West gold demand gap on record, driven by a U.S. sell-off.
– Asia-Pacific demand rose +3%
– China: +12%
– South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia: +30%
– U.S. Mint gold coin sales: –70% YoY in May
Gold flows are clearly heading East.
Retail gold demand is falling in North America and Western Europe — now down three years in a row.
Meanwhile, Asia, South America, and Africa are steadily buying more. In Q1 2025, this created the widest East-West gold demand gap on record, driven by a U.S. sell-off.
– Asia-Pacific demand rose +3%
– China: +12%
– South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia: +30%
– U.S. Mint gold coin sales: –70% YoY in May
Gold flows are clearly heading East.
Trade Watcher
U.S. money supply hits record high — again
In May, the U.S. M2 money supply rose 4.5% YoY to a new all-time high of $21.94 trillion — marking 19 straight months of growth.
Inflation-adjusted M2 is also up 2.1% — the biggest jump since early 2022.
Since 2020, the money supply has grown by nearly $7 trillion.
The result? The U.S. dollar keeps losing long-term buying power.
In May, the U.S. M2 money supply rose 4.5% YoY to a new all-time high of $21.94 trillion — marking 19 straight months of growth.
Inflation-adjusted M2 is also up 2.1% — the biggest jump since early 2022.
Since 2020, the money supply has grown by nearly $7 trillion.
The result? The U.S. dollar keeps losing long-term buying power.
Trade Watcher
Trade Watcher
CEO Jensen Huang plans to sell more than $800 million worth of $NVDA shares this year
Nvidia CEO sells another $35M in shares
Insider selling continues: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just offloaded $35.2 million worth of $NVDA stock.
Insider selling continues: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just offloaded $35.2 million worth of $NVDA stock.
Trade Watcher
Markets move on new info — not noise.
– Known news = priced in = no reaction
– Real moves happen when expectations shift
June example:
– Rangebound until 2 catalysts:
1. Israel’s first strike → risk priced in
2. Fed’s Bowman turned dovish → USD dropped
Key takeaway:
Wait for true catalysts. Focus on what changes the outlook, not what’s already known.
– Known news = priced in = no reaction
– Real moves happen when expectations shift
June example:
– Rangebound until 2 catalysts:
1. Israel’s first strike → risk priced in
2. Fed’s Bowman turned dovish → USD dropped
Key takeaway:
Wait for true catalysts. Focus on what changes the outlook, not what’s already known.
Trade Watcher
Americans Are Quitting Jobs at the Slowest Pace Since 2020
The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped by 151,000 in May, hitting the lowest level since November 2020.
Job leavers now make up just 9.8% of total employment, down 4 percentage points over the last 6 months — a rare decline outside of recessions.
The number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped by 151,000 in May, hitting the lowest level since November 2020.
Job leavers now make up just 9.8% of total employment, down 4 percentage points over the last 6 months — a rare decline outside of recessions.