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No NBA trends today. So I thought why not get ready for WNBA.

I've got stats. I'm sure I can find ways to turn it to profits β€” trends are clear, graphs are mostly trending downwards. And what's great is that there are not that many games each day β€” easier to analyze.

React on all posts. I want to see you engage. And then when WNBA season comes I'll become a WNBA capper for only $99 / week share the stuff I'll be betting.
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Pacers vs Knicks in the ECF 😭

Pacers vs OKC finals πŸ’€ (no way Knicks 6-man lineup beats deep Pacers team)
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MLB

Favorites are winning 56.5% of games so far. But obviously juiced losses like Padres couple days ago will make the situation horrible.

Home teams are doing great:

2-0 home underdogs yesterday
8-3 home favorites yesterday
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Intel MLB 5/14

23-7 Wednesdays

Dodgers -1.5 -130
Reds under 8.5 -110
Dbacks / Giants over 8 -120
Padres / Angels under 8.5 +100
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Soccer in May has been treating us well. Also sorted the profit by leagues: Germany is most profitable, Spain is least profitable. We've got midweek games:

Wednesday:
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Seattle UNDER 2.5 β€” risk 0.4 U
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Atlanta DRAW +300 β€” risk 0.1 U
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Atlanta OVER 2.5 (-150) β€” risk 0.2 U
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Charlotte DRAW +290 β€” risk 0.25 U
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Charlotte OVER 2.5 (-130) β€” risk 0.1 U

Thursday:
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ Getafe DRAW β€” risk 0.4 U
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Έ Betis DRAW β€” risk 0.1U
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NHL

Favorites are dominating (38-25) ... but still not profitable πŸ˜‚ Two games today, good chance for one fav / one dog type day. As usual - I'll wait for the first game to end.
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NBA

Underdogs are fine in the NBA Playoffs. There's two games, both games can be final in the series.

I'd look into totals here and, in the playoffs usually one game goes over and the other stays under the total.

Biased opinion: Knicks win (and Timberwolves win too for the dog/fav balance).
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MLB

Underdogs took over. The chart went below the "support" line (the one with the yellow).

Bet faves live, bet underdogs pregame.
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NHL

One favorite & one underdog like we expected yesterday. Today we could see the same scenario. I hope it will be Capitals and Jets.

I will expect one over & one under today too. Ear;y games of the NHL playoffs are 4-1 L5 to the over and late games are 4-1 L5 to the under. Who could've expected Oilers / Golden Knights game to have 0 goals scored?
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NBA

Only one game a day from now on. Second season in a row underdogs prevailed in late games (13-9 this season).

WNBA starts in two days. Then we'll have conference finals too. Gotta enjoy the last days of NBA (and bet too).

No NBA action today, just enjoying the Nuggets / Thunder game as a fan.
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MLB

It's faves day (on paper) today: favs are 62-28 (68.9%) on Friday. But you see underdogs are winning a lot this month. Curious to see how the day will go

My trends with plays are posted here: https://www.tg-me.com/mlb_lab
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NHL

Caps were disgusting. But one of my favorite cappers picked Jets yesterday (his NHL is 6-0 now). So dog/fav was irrelevant.

Favorites are 41-26 in these playoffs but barely profitable

One game today. Panthers are looking to close out the series. What you thinking?

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WNBA

Just posting the plays now. Will have units for WNBA plays unlike Intel MLB. Sheet later when we have some history of plays.

LV Aces +3.5 -110 (1U)
CHI / IND UNDER 169.5 -110 (0.5U)
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MLB

No changes here. Underdogs are dominating the faves. +200 underdogs winning left and right. Favs are winning 60% on Sat but Friday was supposed to be even better and what did we see?

Best odds for underdogs: +110, +120, +150 (somehow underdogs at these odds have higher win rates)

And yeah don't forget about Intel MLB: https://www.tg-me.com/mlb_lab. Saturdays are shitty for my MLB trends, I don't hide that and I'm not ashamed of that. My job is to deliver the intel - how you use this intel is up to you 🀝
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NHL

We did not expect Panthers to lose right? Well, we'll see game 7.

Satudays = favorites. On the other hand, favorites been winning a lot, and just maybe Maple Leafs set the trend for the underdogs train?πŸ‘€πŸ‘€

Idk, I have no thoughts on Stars/Jets game. Maybe it's one of those "do not overthink it" games and Stars close it out.

What you think?

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Forwarded from Cappers Intel +
Why I will stay off Stars / Jets game today:

TBSB is coming off a lengthy winning streak (7-0 run), now on a LWLW pattern β€” expecting L today.

There was one similar occasion β€” 12-0 run then LWLWLW (and 0-8 run after)

Moreover, 3-5 NHL all-time & 27-32 (45.8%) Saturdays all-time.
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MLB

The trend line is now facing downwards direction β€” underdogs are dominating 🐢

So for now just try to bet underdogs I guess. I'll refrain from betting favorites.
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NHL

Weekend = favorites. Stars was the move, no overthinking. Stats suggest favorite is the move too:

Favorites win 68% of playoff games on Sundays. Leafs always choke big games.

What you think?

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LONG-TERM FOCUS

My main channel (https://www.tg-me.com/betting_intel) has reached 10K followers β€” always dreamed of a large audience and set such goals. Just short of 5K on this channel. Prob will hit that 5k mark today.

I decided to share not only my betting experience, but also speculate a little bit on life philosophy.

Focusing on long-term performance is my life motto, and it is perfectly transferable to betting.

I have attached a graph of my plays over the past 2 years. It's not a a straight line going upwards.

Obviously it's fluctuating with ups and downs. There were cold streaks of weeks, there were cold streaks of 2 months.

If I wasn't sure that I would be profitable in the long run, I'd stop doing all that a long time ago. But here we are.

Obviously there are obstacles on the way to the goal. How can one make this path easier and avoid burnout?

This is where the 80/20 rule comes to my rescue.

I am a meticulous person, I am not afraid of my daily routine and it doesn't bother me. But now I set myself a new rule that I must devote 20% of my time to new projectsю It helps to let some steam out and take a fresh look at the stuff I do. So if something goes wrong with a new project I work on I don't mind shutting it down. And if a new project moonshoots, then I get some nice return with minimal time expenses.

I now spend 20% of my time working with crypto. I like this stuff, I use my sheets there too, they give me some statistics on trading too. If you'd like, I could make a new channel on crypto stuff. Should be fun.

I also follow the 80/20 rule in betting too. 80% of bankroll is my basis, my main portfolio that I bet with and hope to get 10-15% return on risk per month. The other 20% is a degen portfolio, here the risks are greater, but so are the opportunities.

To be more specific, I use 80% of my bankroll for all the stuff that I post in the paid chat: cappers, analytics, the system. And 20% β€” my personal plays, parlays, risky live bets, etc...

But of course none of that matters if you're not sticking to bankroll management. The fact remains that in betting you have to keep track of your money and without it there is no chance to count on profit.

React if you enjoyed that read. Might start doing such things more often,
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2025/07/08 22:12:22
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