ማይክ ሃመር እና ልዩ ተልዕኳቸው,ቀጣይ ጦርነት ሊደረግ..?
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Jawar Mohammed

One would have expected the Ethiopian government to warmly embrace Ambassador Massinga's honest and courageous statement, in which he pleaded with all warring parties to abandon their destructive and misguided attempts to resolve political conflicts through armed violence. The ambassador did not beat around the bush with typical diplomatic rhetoric; instead, he spoke plainly and fairly as a true friend of the country should. I find it baffling and disappointing in equal measure that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement condemning the Ambassador’s well-meaning call for peace.

Following the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, the government demonstrated a desire to resolve the civil wars in other parts of the country through negotiation, taking some commendable steps toward this objective. Many of us enthusiastically welcomed the government's positive shift from warmongering to peacemaking. However, the government now appears to be backtracking on its promise to end wars through negotiations and reopen the political space for robust dialogue. It has reverted to attempting to decimate its opponents through military means—a tried-and-failed strategy of past years that has devastated the country. Instead of consolidating the gains made toward a peaceful settlement,the government has launched massive military and propaganda campaigns. At the same time the ruling party has started campaigning for the election, while maintaining securitization of the political space,a repetition of the mistakes that led to the wars in 2020. The government needs to rethink this approach and recommit to peace.

Contrary to assertions made at recent rallies in Nekemte and Bahir Dar, much of the Amhara and Oromia regions, areas that are affected by war are expanding, not shrinking. While the ENDF has made gains in some areas, recent reports about mass defections of insurgents are highly exaggerated, some are outright fabrication. Roads between most zones and districts are impassable, as evidenced by the dramatic increase in air travel reported by Ethiopian Airlines. Farmers are unable to receive fertilizers or plant crops. Kidnappings and extrajudicial killings of civilians have made life unbearable for the rural population.

Therefore, the government should not be misled by the public’s silence. People are silent because they want to give political elites space to negotiate and restore peace, not because they endorse the ruling party. What has the ruling party done to earn public support? A crushing cost of living and widespread lawlessness? The public is silent because of exhaustion from endless wars and worsening economic hardship. The regime needs to stop getting high on false reports from its own cadres who are actively benefiting from the war economy.

While I understand Ambassador Massinga’s call to ‘test the national dialogue’, at present it is not a realistic option for political forces in Amhara and Oromia. Both regions remain practically under martial law, making political activities such as organizing or holding public meetings unthinkable. Even ruling party officials move under heavy military protection, an option not available to the opposition. Many political leaders with dissenting voices or alternative viewpoints have left the political space for fear of persecution. Some political organizations cannot participate in the national dialogue even if they want to, simply because they have no delegates to send; their leaders have been jailed, killed, or exiled. The OLF is a prime example, although the remaining opposition parties aren’t in any better position.

Again the ruling party needs to stop fooling itself and must refrain from repeating past mistakes. It must take demonstrable steps to show it is serious about peace, commit to genuine negotiations with its opponents, and prepare to make realistic concessions, not cooptation.

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