The Week On-Chain 38, 2025
#Bitcoin shows exhaustion post-FOMC as LTHs realized 3.4M BTC in profit and ETF inflows slowed. With spot and futures weak, $111k STH cost basis is key support or risk downside.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin Correction: Post-FOMC, price action reflects “buy the rumour, sell the news” with fading momentum.
- On-chain: Drawdown mild at 8%, but $678B inflows and 3.4M BTC in LTH profits show major capital rotation.
- ETFs vs LTHs: ETF inflows slowed as LTH distribution accelerated, leaving flows fragile.
- Spot & Futures: Spot volumes spiked, futures deleveraged, and liquidation clusters highlight liquidity risk.
- Options: Skew surged and puts bid, showing defensive positioning as macro signals exhaustion.

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#Bitcoin 1M 25-delta skew keeps climbing, with puts priced at a premium over calls. Traders are paying up for downside protection, reflecting near-term caution, while upside optionality looks cheaper with implied vols still near historic lows.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nnTxNT

#Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has compressed toward cycle lows, reflecting muted realized profits relative to network valuation. Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries.


https://glassno.de/471jtJf

Bitcoin dominance has rebounded from 57% to 59% alongside price strength near $114k.
This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as $BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins.
🔗https://glassno.de/4o2XebP

#Bitcoin US Spot ETFs recorded persistent outflows in late September, exceeding 16k BTC over a two-week stretch.
Flows have since reversed, with 3.2k BTC of inflows on Sept 30, highlighting a potential shift in sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nRAvPC

The Week On-Chain 39, 2025
Bitcoin holds support at the STH cost basis, with ETFs and slowing LTH sell pressure adding stability. Options reset post-expiry as OI rebuilds, vol eases, and flows tilt toward cautious Q4 upside.

Executive Summary
- STH cost basis defended repeatedly, acting as a key pivot between bullish continuation and downside risk. Resistance sits near $118k supply cluster.
- LTH selling cooled after months of distribution, while ETF inflows resumed, stabilizing market structure.
- Fear & Greed Index slid from Greed to Neutral/Fear, showing profit-taking and reduced risk appetite.
- RVT trends confirm cooling, with fewer profits realized relative to network value.
- Options OI reset post-record expiry, now rebuilding into Q4 with room for fresh positioning.
- Volatility easing: front-end IV declining, skew normalizing, term structure in contango with back-end IV steady at 39–43%.
- Flows show cautious upside: traders adding risk reversals, cheap convexity, while selling puts.
- Dealer gamma balanced, muting hedging flows and dampening intraday volatility; no large expiries ahead.


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The Trend Accumulation Score highlights a shift in recent days. Mid-sized #BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.