The Week On-Chain 41, 2025
Bitcoin’s rally to $126k reversed amid macro stress and a $19B futures wipeout. ETF inflows slowing and volatility spiking, the market enters a reset phase marked by a historic leverage flush.

Executive Summary
-Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high at $126.1k reversed amid macro tensions and a $19B futures deleveraging, one of the largest in history. The drop below the $117k–$114k cost-basis zone placed top buyers in loss and exposed renewed market fragility.
- On-chain data show continued Long-Term Holder distribution since July and weaker ETF inflows (-2.3k BTC this week), indicating fading institutional demand. Meanwhile, spot markets experienced a sharp but orderly sell-off, with Binance-driven selling partially offset by buying on Coinbase.
- Futures markets underwent a historic leverage flush, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio collapsing to multi-month lows and funding rates plunging to 2022 FTX levels, signalling peak fear and forced liquidations.
- In the options market, open interest and volume rebounded quickly, but volatility spiked to 76%, and short-dated skew flipped to +17% put-rich before stabilizing. The market remains in a reset phase, awaiting renewed demand to confirm recovery.



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Smaller #BTC holders are stepping up.
Strong accumulation is underway among small to mid-sized cohorts (1–1000 BTC), while large holders have slowed distribution, signaling renewed confidence in spite of the recent shakeout.

The October 10 liquidation wave prompted caution, yet liquidity, macro, and regulatory conditions remain broadly supportive.
Our latest joint report with
@CoinbaseInsto
examines current market trends through data-driven insight.

Read the full report → http://glassno.de/charting_crypto

#Bitcoin open interest has dropped by ~30%, flushing excess leverage from the market. With funding now near neutral, the market is far less vulnerable to another liquidation cascade.

🔗https://glassno.de/4obq1v9

Long-term holder supply has declined by another 28K BTC since October 15th, meaning LTHs have spent more coins than what was aging into their cohort from short-term holders.
This reflects excessive net distribution rather than passive maturation.

🔗https://glassno.de/4qBULXY

Inspecting the monthly average spending by long-term holders shows a clear trend: their outflows have risen steadily from ~12.5k BTC/day in early July to 22.5k BTC/day now (30D-SMA).

This highlights growing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts.

🔗https://glassno.de/3Wj2wUD

The Week On-Chain 42, 2025
Bitcoin trading below key cost basis levels signals demand exhaustion. Long-term holders are selling into strength, while rising put demand and higher volatility show a defensive market.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades below the short-term holders’ cost basis and the 0.85 quantile, signalling fading momentum and growing market fatigue. Repeated failures to reclaim these levels raise the risk of a longer consolidation phase.
- Long-term holders have ramped up spending since July, now exceeding 22K BTC/day, marking sustained profit-taking that continues to pressure market stability.
- Open interest hit a new ATH, but sentiment leans bearish as traders favour puts over calls. Short-term rallies are being met with hedging rather than renewed optimism.
- Implied volatility remains elevated, while realized volatility has caught up, ending the calm, low-volatility regime. Dealers’ short gamma positioning amplifies selloffs and tempers rallies.
- Both on-chain and options data suggest a cautious, transitional phase. Market recovery is likely to hinge on renewed spot demand and easing volatility.



Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

Short-Term Holder NUPL highlights growing stress among recent buyers, reflecting a meaningful cooling of speculative excess. Historically, this type of short-term holder pain has aligned with healthier market conditions.

🔗https://glassno.de/3L4nUur

#BTC Net-premium flows reveal concentrated selling across the $109K–$115K range, indicating that recent moves higher are being used to hedge.
This suggests traders are positioning defensively into strength while the market consolidates.

🔗 https://glassno.de/3WkStyy

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing net outflows, which have often clustered around local market lows as sentiment unwinds.
When flows stabilize or turn positive, it has historically aligned with renewed demand and the early stages of trend recovery.

🔗https://glassno.de/42XGsml

#BTC Options Weekly

The BTC options market keeps expanding fast, shaping how traders price risk and volatility. Reading implied volatility, skew, and options flows helps spot shifts in sentiment before price reacts.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly