The STH MVRV ratio for Bitcoin currently sits at 1.1, indicating that short-term holders are, on average, 10% in profit. This metric helps gauge the sentiment of recent market entrants, who tend to be more speculatively minded and react quickly to price volatility.
This year, the MVRV ratio for STHs peaked at 1.44 in March, dropped below 0.8 in September marking a local bottom, and reached the high of 1.35 in November.
It often pays off to watch the neutral level of 1 as it tends to act as support during uptrends but can flip to resistance if decisively broken, signaling a shift in sentiment.
In terms of price, the MVRV of 1.0 currently corresponds to a short-term holder cost basis of $87K. According to Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) data, there is an "air pocket" of demand between $87K and $71K. This potentially makes the $87K a make-or-break level for the short-term price action.
🔗 Relevant Charts:
STH MVRV Indicator: https://glassno.de/3Pp4BLn
Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Data: https://glassno.de/cbd
This year, the MVRV ratio for STHs peaked at 1.44 in March, dropped below 0.8 in September marking a local bottom, and reached the high of 1.35 in November.
It often pays off to watch the neutral level of 1 as it tends to act as support during uptrends but can flip to resistance if decisively broken, signaling a shift in sentiment.
In terms of price, the MVRV of 1.0 currently corresponds to a short-term holder cost basis of $87K. According to Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) data, there is an "air pocket" of demand between $87K and $71K. This potentially makes the $87K a make-or-break level for the short-term price action.
🔗 Relevant Charts:
STH MVRV Indicator: https://glassno.de/3Pp4BLn
Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Data: https://glassno.de/cbd
Perpetual Market Lagging Behind Momentum
Despite Bitcoin's strong rally from $93.5K on Jan 1 to $102.4K today, the Perpetual Funding Rates for the top 5 assets remain below neutral (0.01%):
BTC: 0.009%
ETH: 0.01%
SOL: 0.006%
XRP: 0.01%
DOGE: 0.011%
This suggests perpetual markets are lagging behind the current positive market momentum.
📊https://glassno.de/4gHafnZ
Despite Bitcoin's strong rally from $93.5K on Jan 1 to $102.4K today, the Perpetual Funding Rates for the top 5 assets remain below neutral (0.01%):
BTC: 0.009%
ETH: 0.01%
SOL: 0.006%
XRP: 0.01%
DOGE: 0.011%
This suggests perpetual markets are lagging behind the current positive market momentum.
📊https://glassno.de/4gHafnZ
The AI Agent sector is emerging as an important driver in the crypto market, but volatility remains a defining feature. Glassnode's Profitability Map offers insights to help you identify which assets have high profitability and whether profits are being realized—a potential indicator of market shifts.
Key Insights:
🔹VIRTUAL: Profitability at 2.00 with moderate profit-taking (0.58) indicates a heating phase where investors may begin locking in larger gains.
🔹PAAL: Profitability at 1.06 with moderate profit-taking (0.55) suggests cooling sentiment, with holders cautious about securing returns.
🔹PHA: Profitability of 0.90 but with significant profit-taking (1.17), indicating an increased desire to lock in profits.
🔹BOTTO: Heating up at 0.95 profitability and low profit-taking (0.27), showing a trend of investors holding rather than cashing out.
Get a deeper look at the broader market with our Profitability Dashboard: glassno.de/3DKybIx
Key Insights:
🔹VIRTUAL: Profitability at 2.00 with moderate profit-taking (0.58) indicates a heating phase where investors may begin locking in larger gains.
🔹PAAL: Profitability at 1.06 with moderate profit-taking (0.55) suggests cooling sentiment, with holders cautious about securing returns.
🔹PHA: Profitability of 0.90 but with significant profit-taking (1.17), indicating an increased desire to lock in profits.
🔹BOTTO: Heating up at 0.95 profitability and low profit-taking (0.27), showing a trend of investors holding rather than cashing out.
Get a deeper look at the broader market with our Profitability Dashboard: glassno.de/3DKybIx
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - typically associated with extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle yet. If BTC were to hit this level, it would correspond to a price tag of ~$132K.
📊 Historically, BTC price has spent only ~5% of trading days above this threshold, reinforcing why it’s viewed as a rare "extreme euphoria" zone.
❓ Will MVRV reach 3.2 this cycle? While momentum remains positive, with MVRV still above the 1-year MA (currently 2.18), one of the key questions is whether this trendline will plateau in the coming weeks - making MVRV momentum an important metric to monitor.
🔗 Explore the charts:
MVRV Pricing Bands
Historical MVRV Levels
MVRV Momentum
📊 Historically, BTC price has spent only ~5% of trading days above this threshold, reinforcing why it’s viewed as a rare "extreme euphoria" zone.
❓ Will MVRV reach 3.2 this cycle? While momentum remains positive, with MVRV still above the 1-year MA (currently 2.18), one of the key questions is whether this trendline will plateau in the coming weeks - making MVRV momentum an important metric to monitor.
🔗 Explore the charts:
MVRV Pricing Bands
Historical MVRV Levels
MVRV Momentum
The U.S. Department of Justice is cleared to sell 69,000 BTC - worth over $6 billion.
With Glassnode, you can track government-held Bitcoin wallets and estimate the potential market impact if this kind of sell-side pressure occurs.
Putting it in perspective
In July 2024, the German government sold 56,000 BTC, but instead of collapsing, the market rallied from $53k to $68k.
However, past large inflows have had different results:
🔸 March 2021: 70.5k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.72 (Euphoria/Greed)—short correction, then recovery.
🔹 June 2022: 68.7k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.21 (Capitulation)—a prolonged bear market followed.
Bottom line: Market reactions depend heavily on where we are in the cycle.
With Glassnode’s US Government Balance metric, you can set alerts to be notified when coins move - helping you stay ahead of potential sell-offs.
🔗 Check it out: https://glassno.de/40ccXL7
With Glassnode, you can track government-held Bitcoin wallets and estimate the potential market impact if this kind of sell-side pressure occurs.
Putting it in perspective
In July 2024, the German government sold 56,000 BTC, but instead of collapsing, the market rallied from $53k to $68k.
However, past large inflows have had different results:
🔸 March 2021: 70.5k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.72 (Euphoria/Greed)—short correction, then recovery.
🔹 June 2022: 68.7k BTC inflows, NUPL at 0.21 (Capitulation)—a prolonged bear market followed.
Bottom line: Market reactions depend heavily on where we are in the cycle.
With Glassnode’s US Government Balance metric, you can set alerts to be notified when coins move - helping you stay ahead of potential sell-offs.
🔗 Check it out: https://glassno.de/40ccXL7
Following a period of distribution into the ATH, Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1 BTC) are now accumulating coins at a rate of +17.6k BTC/Month.
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart
As of January 13, 2025, stablecoin inflows have nearly stalled, with the market cap stabilizing at $189.1B and the 30-day net change down to +0.56%.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
The Week On-Chain 2, 2025
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
🔍 Optimizing Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for Refined Insights
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
📊 Bitcoin Supply in Unrealized Loss: Insights into Market Stress
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
At the moment, $125K marks the current upper limit of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) price action in bull market conditions, derived from an optimized framework using the STH cost basis ($88,517) as the baseline.
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
The Week On-Chain, Week 3, 2025
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
Bitcoin dominance is climbing again
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈