Following a period of distribution into the ATH, Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1 BTC) are now accumulating coins at a rate of +17.6k BTC/Month.
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart
The cohort now holds around 1.36M BTC, equivalent to 6.9% of the circulating supply.
Shrimp Net Position Change Chart
As of January 13, 2025, stablecoin inflows have nearly stalled, with the market cap stabilizing at $189.1B and the 30-day net change down to +0.56%.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
This marks a stark contrast to the November to December 2024 rally, when $27.35B in inflows (+16.9%) drove BTC from $67.8K to $106.1K (+56.5%), reaching a +10.67% 30-day net change at its peak.
By comparison, the January to March 2024 rally added $14.68B (+11.5%) in stablecoin liquidity, as BTC surged +74.5% to $69.5K. The fact that the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain underscores the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled.
In total, $65B entered the space via stablecoins in 2024 - an amount comparable to the annual GDP of Lithuania.
Explore Stablecoins Aggregated Market Cap Percentage Change chart.
The Week On-Chain 2, 2025
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
As the Bitcoin market corrects from the $108k ATH, a significant proportion of froth has come out of the market, whilst demand remains relatively robust. Unrealized losses are primarily held by short-term holders; however, stress levels are relatively modest compared to previous drawdowns.
Executive Summary
🔹Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, trading -11% below its ATH of $108k but remaining above key support levels, retaining a constructive market structure.
🔹Z-Score analysis suggests cyclical highs typically align with various metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above the mean, offering a framework to help navigate bullish market phases.
🔹Bitcoin's current price is around 10% above the Short-Term Holders' cost basis of $88.4k, underscoring a potential risk of downside if momentum stalls and price trades below this level.
🔹Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term holders, with 2.0–3.5M BTC held underwater.
Read the full Week On-Chain and discover more insights.
🔍 Optimizing Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for Refined Insights
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
Bitcoin’s market maturity is reflected in the declining peak values of its MVRV ratio, one of the key metrics for navigating market cycles:
🔹 2011: 8.07x
🔹 2014: 6.00x
🔹 2018: 4.81x
🔹 2021: 3.98x
🔹 2024: 2.78x (to date).
This trend highlights reduced volatility and speculative intensity as Bitcoin scales.
However, identifying actionable insights amid these diminishing peaks requires a more advanced approach.
At Glassnode, we’ve refined the MVRV Z-Score with optimized rolling windows, providing a more dynamic approach to analyzing market turning points.
Our latest analysis offers:
🔸Improved frameworks to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.
🔸Clearer thresholds for identifying bullish and bearish phases.
🔸Practical insights for institutional decision-making.
Explore how these insights can inform your strategy in our latest Week On-Chain.
📊 Bitcoin Supply in Unrealized Loss: Insights into Market Stress
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
Historically, the number of $BTC held in unrealized loss provides a reference point for assessing market stress:
🔸 Bull markets: <4M BTC in loss. 🔹 Early bear markets: 4–8M BTC in loss.
Last week, market volatility pushed 2.0–3.5M BTC into loss, still lower than the 4M BTC seen during mid-2024 lows.
For context: 🔻 2018 bear market: 10.7M BTC in loss. 🔻 2020 COVID crash: 10.4M BTC in loss.
📉 Another view: The Relative Unrealized Loss metric (unrealized losses relative to market cap) peaked at ~4.3% in Q3 2024 - far below the 10%+ levels seen during past external shocks like COVID or the 2021 China mining ban.
This highlights a more resilient market structure in the current cycle.
🔗 Dive deeper into the data here:
Total Supply in Loss
Entity-Adjusted Relative Unrealized Loss
At the moment, $125K marks the current upper limit of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) price action in bull market conditions, derived from an optimized framework using the STH cost basis ($88,517) as the baseline.
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
This approach accounts for Bitcoin’s evolving market conditions and shows that, in previous cycles, Bitcoin did not top before reaching this upper band - though it sometimes exceeded it temporarily.
In March 2024, the market tagged this level intra-cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $105,094 - 18.7% above the STH cost basis and well within bullish norms. However, if the price drops below $88,517, unrealized losses could trigger increased sell-side pressure.
Key thresholds for STHs:
- $125,653: Current upper band (bull market extremes).
- $88,517: Average cost basis.
- $68,549: Lower band (bear market lows).
As the STH cost basis rises, the upper band will adjust dynamically. Explore this chart here: https://glassno.de/4arR3bq
The Week On-Chain, Week 3, 2025
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
Following two months of consolidation, Bitcoin has broken upwards from its rangebound conditions and surged to a new ATH of $109k. In this article, we evaluate the conditions leading into this move to demonstrate signals of impending volatility.
Executive Summary
🔸Capital flows into Bitcoin remain positive, although they have declined in magnitude since first reaching $100k. This highlights a period of declining sell-side pressure as the market approaches a near-term equilibrium.
🔹Sell-side pressure from long-term investors has also declined, alongside volumes deposited to exchanges for sale.
🔸Several measures of volatility are tightening up, with the market trading within a historically narrow 60-day price range, often a sign that the market is almost ready to move again.
Read Week On-Chain and discover more insights
Bitcoin dominance is climbing again
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈
After bottoming in December 2024 at ~54%, BTC dominance has surged past 57% in January 2025.
This mirrors the 2020 cycle, where BTC dominance bottomed in Nov '20 (~60%), then rallied to 69% in Jan '21 before starting to decline again.
In the last cycle, Bitcoin dominance peaked near 72%. Shortly after, BTC hit ~$40K - over 2x its prior cycle's ATH - but still far from the eventual $64K top. Dominance began dropping as BTC's price soared, signalling a shift in risk appetite toward riskier assets.
View Major Asset Dominance 📈
Following the correction to $99k, the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Composite flashed an exhaustion signal, highlighting severe unrealized loss and investor capitulation across the weekly-monthly timeframe.
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
The Seller Exhaustion Composite is a framework which models the points of extreme financial pressure and reaction, based on three profit/loss metrics:
🔹MVRV Ratio which assesses the unrealized profit or loss held by investors within the cohort.
🔹SOPR which evaluates the average magnitude of profit or loss locked in by the cohort.
🔹Realized Loss which isolates the USD denominated magnitude of loss locked in by the cohort.
This model can be used across multiple timeframes and assets.
For further information on the Seller Exhaustion Composite, please visit our dedicated article: Identifying Seller Exhaustion
Institutional capital flows, stablecoin dominance, and the rise of Layer-2s - these were the key forces shaping the digital asset markets over the past few months.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
Our latest Guide to Crypto Markets, produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, provides a comprehensive analysis of Q1 2025:
📌 Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows, yet supply dynamics shifted as long-term holders took profits near all-time highs.
📌 Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem expanded rapidly, with transactions up 41% in Q4 as users migrated to lower-cost environments.
📌 Stablecoins solidified their dominance, with supply surging 18% - reinforcing their role as a foundational liquidity layer for crypto markets.
The report equips institutional investors with a data-driven framework for navigating market structure, derivatives, liquidity trends, and onchain activity.
Download the full Q1 report here.
The Week On-Chain, Week 4, 2025
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
The current bull market shows several structural similarities to the 2015–2018 cycle. We explore this idea from the perspective of the drawdown profile, price performance, and changes in the Realized Cap.
Executive Summary
🔸Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle.
🔹Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.
🔺Exchange Balances vs. ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like Coinbase.
More insight in the latest Week On-Chain
BTC balances on exchanges drop - does this mean we're in for a supply squeeze?
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Not exactly. While exchange balances have fallen to 2.7M BTC (from 3.1M BTC in July 2024), most of this decline isn’t due to investor withdrawals but a shift in market structure.
📌 Key facts:
🔹The drop coincides with the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
🔹8 of 11 ETFs use Coinbase custody, meaning coins are moving from exchange wallets to institutional custodians.
🔹Glassnode classifies both under the ‘Coinbase entity’, impacting balance readings.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (FBTC, HODL), the combined holdings of exchanges + ETF wallets remain around 3M BTC - the same level as January 2024.
Bottom line: The decline in exchange balances reflects a shift in asset custody rather than a net reduction in available supply.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
As much as 7.91% of Bitcoin's supply - based on UTXOs' creation date - has already changed hands this year. At the same time, 31.34% of the supply was last transacted in 2024.
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands
How does this compare to other post-halving years?
By February 2017, 13.95% of $BTC supply had changed hands while more than 29.27% of the supply was still coming from 2016.
In 2021, this figure was even higher at this point of the year, amounting to 16.34%, while 27.46% of supply belonged to 2020 buyers.
So 2025's lower turnover can signal both weaker speculative demand but also possibly conviction from 2024 holders - and an expectation of higher prices as the year unfolds.
View Relative Supply by Date Bands