Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows thin support between $121K and $120K, with a key cluster near $117K where around 190K BTC were last acquired.
A pullback into this area could attract demand as recent buyers defend the level.

📈: https://glassno.de/48Qooht

#BTC Futures Open Interest rose sharply as traders added longs during the breakout to new highs.

The current pullback is testing these positions, helping to reset leverage. It will be key to see where buyers step in and whether support levels attract renewed demand.

📈 https://glassno.de/46GsDen

With the price breaking above $117k, over 95% of the circulating supply has returned to profit.
This is a hallmark of Euphoria phases, where widespread profitability often fuels accelerated profit-taking and rising market risk.

📈:https://glassno.de/4nDmNQG

Large traders demonstrated expert timing as $BTC reversed from recent highs.

The shift to a net short bias suggests profit-taking on longs alongside new short positioning.

Track these shifts in positioning in real time:
🔗https://glassno.de/3KFjk5N

The Week On-Chain 40, 2025
Bitcoin broke above the $114k–$117k supply zone to new highs near $126k, driven by strong ETF inflows and mid-tier accumulation. On-chain remains firm, though rising leverage adds short-term risk.

Executive Summary
- On-chain profitability has surged, with 97% of supply now in profit. While elevated profit levels often precede consolidation, realized profits remain contained, suggesting an orderly rotation rather than distribution pressure.
- The $117K supply cluster has been flipped into support, marking a structural pivot where small and mid-sized holders continue to accumulate, offsetting moderate profit-taking from larger entities.
- Bitcoin has broken to new all-time highs near $126K, driven by renewed spot demand and record ETF inflows exceeding $2.2B. The surge in institutional participation has lifted both price and market activity, with spot volumes reaching multi-month highs as Q4 begins.
- Derivatives markets expanded sharply during the rally, with futures open interest and funding rates rising as late longs entered. The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance.
- In the options market, implied volatility has lifted, skew turned neutral, and call-heavy flows dominate. Momentum remains strong, but bullish positioning is becoming increasingly crowded.


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

#Bitcoin continues to trade well above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.

The rally remains below the Heated zone (+1 STD), suggesting momentum is high but approaching short-term risk conditions.

#BTC Futures Open Interest remains elevated as both longs and shorts are being whipsawed by sharp price swings. The market is undergoing a leverage reset, with volatility flushing out excess positioning on both sides.

#BTC ETF inflows have continued despite the recent pullback, showing that institutional demand remains steady even as derivatives traders get chopped.

This suggests structural buying is still underpinning the market, helping to absorb volatility and stabilize price action.

Analyzing the behavior of XRP investors who accumulated below ~$1, we see significant profit-taking as price surged above $2 (>100% gains). Two major realization waves—Dec 2024 and July 2025—have so far exhausted much of the market’s bullish momentum.

📉https://glassno.de/4q5doTC

🧵/1- While #Bitcoin corrected comparatively mildly, unsurprisingly, alts saw one of the sharpest daily drawdowns in years: the median return across alts was as low as –20%.

🧵/2 - Altcoin funding rates plunged to a median of -0.4 yesterday – levels not seen since the 2022 bear market. Today, they’ve reset and bounced back above zero, signaling a swift shift in positioning.

🧵/3 - We saw the largest open interest wipe-out in history. For #BTC alone, over $10B in open interest was erased across all major exchanges.

🧵/4- This was the largest liquidation event on record so far. And with incomplete reporting across exchanges, real figures are almost certainly larger.

🧵/5- Hyperliquid’s heatmap of #BTC liquidation clusters was virtually wiped clean. Levels both above and below spot were triggered, likely driven by a rapid buildup of liquidation levels in cross-margined accounts and traders closing positions in light of the events.

🧵/6- Our #BTC Long/Short Bias chart, tracking the aggregate net positions of the largest BTC traders on Hyperliquid, showed a steep rise in net shorts starting in October 6th, well before Friday's events. While levels have since recovered, they remain deeply negative.

Funding rates across the crypto market have plunged to their lowest levels since the depths of the 2022 bear market.

This marks one of the most severe leverage resets in crypto history, a clear sign of how aggressively speculative excess has been flushed from the system.