U.S. Government Shutdown Forecast Summary (Polymarket · Kalshi)
Prediction markets expect the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 to be likely to continue into November. On Polymarket, the odds of ending in October are 34%, November or later is 66%, and the median is November 4–7. Kalshi likewise has 64% for lasting 30+ days and 48% for 35+ days, implying roughly 4–5 weeks.
For reference, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019.
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Prediction markets expect the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 to be likely to continue into November. On Polymarket, the odds of ending in October are 34%, November or later is 66%, and the median is November 4–7. Kalshi likewise has 64% for lasting 30+ days and 48% for 35+ days, implying roughly 4–5 weeks.
For reference, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019.
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🗞 October 14 2025 cryptocurrency news highlights
【Cryptocurrency】
JPMorgan confirms on CNBC that they will allow clients to trade Bitcoin and crypto but not yet launch custody services
【Indicators】
Key Trading Data: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.0240%, a Near One-Month Low
【Economy】
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The U.S. Government just transferred 667.6 Bitcoin worth $74.7 million to a new wallet 👀
【Others】
The Smarter Web Company (AQUIS: SWC) adds 100 more Bitcoin for £9.08M, bringing its total holdings to 2,650 BTC under its “10 Year Plan.”
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
【Cryptocurrency】
JPMorgan confirms on CNBC that they will allow clients to trade Bitcoin and crypto but not yet launch custody services
【Indicators】
Key Trading Data: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.0240%, a Near One-Month Low
【Economy】
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The U.S. Government just transferred 667.6 Bitcoin worth $74.7 million to a new wallet 👀
【Others】
The Smarter Web Company (AQUIS: SWC) adds 100 more Bitcoin for £9.08M, bringing its total holdings to 2,650 BTC under its “10 Year Plan.”
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Tether reached a settlement by paying nearly $300 million to the Celsius bankruptcy consortium
The Blockchain Asset Recovery Investment Alliance (BRIC) announced that Tether has paid $299.5 million to the Celsius Network bankruptcy consortium to resolve the relevant lawsuits filed in August 2024. BRIC was jointly established by GXD Labs and VanEck, which is responsible for managing Celsius's asset recovery and litigation affairs.
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
The Blockchain Asset Recovery Investment Alliance (BRIC) announced that Tether has paid $299.5 million to the Celsius Network bankruptcy consortium to resolve the relevant lawsuits filed in August 2024. BRIC was jointly established by GXD Labs and VanEck, which is responsible for managing Celsius's asset recovery and litigation affairs.
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According to Coinglass, approximately $706 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Of this, long positions were $456 million, and short positions were $249 million+.
By asset, Ethereum ranked first in liquidation volume at $234 million, Bitcoin at $168 million, and other altcoins totaled $68 million.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $326 million net outflow on Monday, marking two consecutive days of outflows, and spot Ethereum ETFs also saw a $428 million net outflow, likewise declining for two straight days.
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
By asset, Ethereum ranked first in liquidation volume at $234 million, Bitcoin at $168 million, and other altcoins totaled $68 million.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $326 million net outflow on Monday, marking two consecutive days of outflows, and spot Ethereum ETFs also saw a $428 million net outflow, likewise declining for two straight days.
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Money & Crypto News
According to Coinglass, approximately $706 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Of this, long positions were $456 million, and short positions were $249 million+. By asset, Ethereum ranked first in liquidation volume at $234 million…
Marked as the "Pension Fund" Whale opened a 10,000 ETH short position during the uptrend, previously incurring a 3,410,000 loss
According to on-chain AI analysis tool Coinbob (@ CoinbobAI_bot), a whale identified by users as "Pension Fund" decisively opened a 2x leveraged short position of 10,000 ETH when ETH broke through $4200 with high volume after trading sideways, holding over $41 million.
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
According to on-chain AI analysis tool Coinbob (@ CoinbobAI_bot), a whale identified by users as "Pension Fund" decisively opened a 2x leveraged short position of 10,000 ETH when ETH broke through $4200 with high volume after trading sideways, holding over $41 million.
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🗞 October 15 2025 cryptocurrency news highlights
【Cryptocurrency】
🇰🇪 Kenyan parliament passes Bitcoin and crypto law in an attempt to boost investments
【Indicators】
Marked as the "Pension Fund" Whale opened a 10,000 ETH short position during the uptrend, previously incurring a 3,410,000 loss
【Economy】
🇰🇪 Kenya officially signs the “Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill” into law.
【Others】
According to Coinglass, approximately $706 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Of this, long positions were $456 million, and short positions were $249 million+.
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
【Cryptocurrency】
🇰🇪 Kenyan parliament passes Bitcoin and crypto law in an attempt to boost investments
【Indicators】
Marked as the "Pension Fund" Whale opened a 10,000 ETH short position during the uptrend, previously incurring a 3,410,000 loss
【Economy】
🇰🇪 Kenya officially signs the “Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill” into law.
【Others】
According to Coinglass, approximately $706 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Of this, long positions were $456 million, and short positions were $249 million+.
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Trump confirms US is in a trade war with China
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the US is in an active trade war with China after threatening a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports last week. Asked by reporters whether the US is preparing for a trade war with China, US President Donald Trump responded: “Well, we’re in one now.”
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the US is in an active trade war with China after threatening a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports last week. Asked by reporters whether the US is preparing for a trade war with China, US President Donald Trump responded: “Well, we’re in one now.”
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Bitcoin miner Bitfarms files for $300 million convertible note offering
Bitfarms Ltd. (ticker BITF), a Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure firm, is offering a tranche of convertible notes to raise $300 million. The convertible notes will be convertible into cash or common shares of the company (or some combination) at Bitfarms’ discretion. The notes are unsecured, due in 2031, and will pay interest semi-annually beginning in July 2026.
📱 @Money 📱 Twitter
Bitfarms Ltd. (ticker BITF), a Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure firm, is offering a tranche of convertible notes to raise $300 million. The convertible notes will be convertible into cash or common shares of the company (or some combination) at Bitfarms’ discretion. The notes are unsecured, due in 2031, and will pay interest semi-annually beginning in July 2026.
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