TY #KOINU refuses to weaken... The pinhole eye remains clear on radar and IR imageries... Its CDO is tiny with rainbands tightly and compactly wrapping around the eye... KOINU should begin to weaken tomorrow due to continuous dry and cool air intrusion from the north...
KOINU is located at approximately 170 km SE of #Hongkong... It will drift westward slowly in the next 24 hours and continue to bring strong to gale force winds to the coast of #Guangdong... Friends in #Hongkong and #Macau should stay alert...
At 16:45 local time... #Dangan Island reported NNE'ly winds of 53 km/h...
(VIS from RAMMB)
KOINU is located at approximately 170 km SE of #Hongkong... It will drift westward slowly in the next 24 hours and continue to bring strong to gale force winds to the coast of #Guangdong... Friends in #Hongkong and #Macau should stay alert...
At 16:45 local time... #Dangan Island reported NNE'ly winds of 53 km/h...
(VIS from RAMMB)
Disturbance #95W near 7N 140E strengthened into TD #17W tonight... Convection over its LLCC became more organised during the day...
With adequate outflow and light to moderate easterly shear... 17W is expected to intensify gradually into a TS in the next few days... Conditions seem favourable for further development over the Philippine Sea...
There might be interaction with another low pressure system to the east of 17W... We will be monitoring them closely this week...
(IR from NOAA)
With adequate outflow and light to moderate easterly shear... 17W is expected to intensify gradually into a TS in the next few days... Conditions seem favourable for further development over the Philippine Sea...
There might be interaction with another low pressure system to the east of 17W... We will be monitoring them closely this week...
(IR from NOAA)
TD #17W struggled to organise under moderate easterly shear... Morning ASCAT revealed a trough-like elongated LLCC... Convection displayed less banding feature in the past 12 hours...
The initial development of 17W might be hindered by wind shear and dry air around the system... 17W will move W/WNW in the next few days and approach the Philippines... Conditions should become more favourable for development later in the week... This system is still expected to reach TS strength this week... Note that PAGASA is expecting TY intensity on Saturday...
We will continue to monitor 17W closely...
The initial development of 17W might be hindered by wind shear and dry air around the system... 17W will move W/WNW in the next few days and approach the Philippines... Conditions should become more favourable for development later in the week... This system is still expected to reach TS strength this week... Note that PAGASA is expecting TY intensity on Saturday...
We will continue to monitor 17W closely...
TD #17W struggled to maintain its strength under persistent easterly wind shear... Its LLCC became fully exposed overnight... JMA cancelled their Gale Warning and JTWC also issued the final advisory on this system in the morning...
Disorganised convection cells recently formed closer to the centre but still couldn't organise and wrap around the LLCC... Nearly all models over-predicted its intensity...
#17W (as a LPA or TD) will track WNW towards the #Philippines in the coming few days... There may be slight improvement in its structure but significant strengthening appears unlikely... However... rainbands associated with 17W may bring heavy showers to central Philippines during the weekend...
Disorganised convection cells recently formed closer to the centre but still couldn't organise and wrap around the LLCC... Nearly all models over-predicted its intensity...
#17W (as a LPA or TD) will track WNW towards the #Philippines in the coming few days... There may be slight improvement in its structure but significant strengthening appears unlikely... However... rainbands associated with 17W may bring heavy showers to central Philippines during the weekend...
An earthquake (Mw 6.8) struck southern #Mindanao in the afternoon... There is no tsunami threat...
Friends on the island should exercise caution in the next few days as there will be aftershocks and more precipitation from the remnants of TD #17W which will approach the region on the weekend... However TC formation is unlikely before the system leaves the island...
(Image from PHIVOLCS)
Friends on the island should exercise caution in the next few days as there will be aftershocks and more precipitation from the remnants of TD #17W which will approach the region on the weekend... However TC formation is unlikely before the system leaves the island...
(Image from PHIVOLCS)
Disturbance #91W is moving W near #Palau... The LLCC is partially-exposed... with rather disorganised convection in the NW quadrant... There is moderate east-southeasterly shear over the region... Significant development is not expected but this system may reach TD strength before reaching southern #Philippines... JMA is more aggressive... expecting minimal TS... They issued a Gale Warning this morning...
91W will continue to move W towards #Mindanao... This system will likely make landfall in or near #Caraga late Sunday or early Monday... Be prepared for some heavy rains in parts of #Mindanao and #Visayas in the next 3 days...
(Image from RAMMB and JMA)
91W will continue to move W towards #Mindanao... This system will likely make landfall in or near #Caraga late Sunday or early Monday... Be prepared for some heavy rains in parts of #Mindanao and #Visayas in the next 3 days...
(Image from RAMMB and JMA)
JMA upgraded the system (#KabayanPH) east of #Mindanao to TS #JELAWAT this morning... JELAWAT's circulation appears less elongated than yesterday but the LLCC remains partially-exposed SE of the convective cells...
JELAWAT is expected to remain weak (TD intensity) as it makes landfall in or near #Caraga later tonight or early tomorrow... and travels across #Mindanao and the #SuluSea in the next couple of days... Winds over the northern semicircle will be stronger due to northeast monsoon...
Some areas in #Mindanao and #Visayas may receive over 200 mm of rainfall in the next 2-3 days... Be prepared for heavy showers and gusts...
(Image from CWB)
JELAWAT is expected to remain weak (TD intensity) as it makes landfall in or near #Caraga later tonight or early tomorrow... and travels across #Mindanao and the #SuluSea in the next couple of days... Winds over the northern semicircle will be stronger due to northeast monsoon...
Some areas in #Mindanao and #Visayas may receive over 200 mm of rainfall in the next 2-3 days... Be prepared for heavy showers and gusts...
(Image from CWB)
TD (JMA/JTWC TS) #JELAWAT remains relatively weak as it moves further westward in the evening... Strong convection over the northwest quadrant is already affecting eastern parts of #Mindanao...
JELAWAT will cross the island tomorrow morning... likely as a TD... Some areas in #Mindanao and #Visayas may receive 200 mm of rainfall in the next 2 days... Be prepared for heavy showers and gusts...
(Image from JMA)
JELAWAT will cross the island tomorrow morning... likely as a TD... Some areas in #Mindanao and #Visayas may receive 200 mm of rainfall in the next 2 days... Be prepared for heavy showers and gusts...
(Image from JMA)
[M7.6 #Noto #earthquake] The fire in #Wajima has not been put out... There were 6 cases of people being buried alive... More than 50 houses collapsed in the city...
The Committee decided to retire 12 names... mainly at the request of the #Philippines and #China...
Climate models suggest low-level anti-cyclonic anomalies over the subtropical WPAC until summer... Expect below-normal precipitation over SCS and WPAC between 10N-20N in the coming months...
Climate models suggest low-level anti-cyclonic anomalies over the subtropical WPAC until summer... Expect below-normal precipitation over SCS and WPAC between 10N-20N in the coming months...
<Special Information for the 🇵🇭 #Philippines #1>
TD #AghonPH (#93W) may make landfall over #Samar...
93W intensified into a TD this morning... Its organisation improved after midnight... There was an increase in feeder bands near the centre...
AghonPH will move NW in the next 24 hours... Landfall over #EasternVisayas is possible in the early morning... AghonPH may then travel over #BicolRegion tomorrow night and early Sunday...
Aghon may become a weak TS upon landfall... The rate of intensification depends on its proximity to landmass... There is a higher chance of intensification early next week as it recurves near E #Luzon with strong divergence...
Note that the AI models generally suggest a more westerly track onto southern Luzon...
Friends in EasternVisayas and #BicolRegion are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... There might be over 200 mm of rainfall in parts of these regions... #Calabarzon may also be affected by heavy rains later tomorrow...
Expected time of landfall over #EasternVisayas: Saturday morning
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-24 13:17 PST
(Image from CWA)
TD #AghonPH (#93W) may make landfall over #Samar...
93W intensified into a TD this morning... Its organisation improved after midnight... There was an increase in feeder bands near the centre...
AghonPH will move NW in the next 24 hours... Landfall over #EasternVisayas is possible in the early morning... AghonPH may then travel over #BicolRegion tomorrow night and early Sunday...
Aghon may become a weak TS upon landfall... The rate of intensification depends on its proximity to landmass... There is a higher chance of intensification early next week as it recurves near E #Luzon with strong divergence...
Note that the AI models generally suggest a more westerly track onto southern Luzon...
Friends in EasternVisayas and #BicolRegion are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... There might be over 200 mm of rainfall in parts of these regions... #Calabarzon may also be affected by heavy rains later tomorrow...
Expected time of landfall over #EasternVisayas: Saturday morning
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-24 13:17 PST
(Image from CWA)
<Special Information for the 🇵🇭 #Philippines #2>
TD #AghonPH (#93W) will make landfall in Eastern Visayas in the morning...
AghonPH will make landfall in southern #Samar or northern #Leyte within 12 hours... It will then move over #BicolRegion tomorrow and early Sunday... Note that the track may a bit more westward putting AghonPH over #Quezon...
There is not much time left for intensification before landfall... AghonPH will cross Eastern Visayas as a TD or weak TS... There is a higher chance of intensification early next week as the cyclone recurves near E #Luzon in the presence of strong divergence...
Friends in EasternVisayas and #BicolRegion are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... Over 200 mm of rainfall may be expected in parts of these regions... #Calabarzon may also be affected by heavy rains later tomorrow...
Expected time of landfall over #EasternVisayas: Saturday morning
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-24 22:45 PST
(Image from NOAA)
TD #AghonPH (#93W) will make landfall in Eastern Visayas in the morning...
AghonPH will make landfall in southern #Samar or northern #Leyte within 12 hours... It will then move over #BicolRegion tomorrow and early Sunday... Note that the track may a bit more westward putting AghonPH over #Quezon...
There is not much time left for intensification before landfall... AghonPH will cross Eastern Visayas as a TD or weak TS... There is a higher chance of intensification early next week as the cyclone recurves near E #Luzon in the presence of strong divergence...
Friends in EasternVisayas and #BicolRegion are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... Over 200 mm of rainfall may be expected in parts of these regions... #Calabarzon may also be affected by heavy rains later tomorrow...
Expected time of landfall over #EasternVisayas: Saturday morning
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-24 22:45 PST
(Image from NOAA)
<Special Information for the 🇵🇭 #Philippines #3>
TD AghonPH made landfall on #Samar... It is now located in the vicinity of #Masbate... An area of intense convection developed above the LLCC recently...
Aghon will continue to move NW towards #Quezon or #CamarinesSur in the evening...
AghonPH will move increasingly poleward after crossing Luzon... and start to recurve near #Polillo Islands or #Aurora Province tomorrow... Intensification will occur due to the presence of strong divergence...
Friends in #EasternVisayas, #BicolRegion and #Calabarzon are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... Over 200 mm of rainfall may be expected in parts of these regions...
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-25 10:05 PST
(Image from JMA)
TD AghonPH made landfall on #Samar... It is now located in the vicinity of #Masbate... An area of intense convection developed above the LLCC recently...
Aghon will continue to move NW towards #Quezon or #CamarinesSur in the evening...
AghonPH will move increasingly poleward after crossing Luzon... and start to recurve near #Polillo Islands or #Aurora Province tomorrow... Intensification will occur due to the presence of strong divergence...
Friends in #EasternVisayas, #BicolRegion and #Calabarzon are advised to take precautions... Heavy rains and gusty winds will affect you... Over 200 mm of rainfall may be expected in parts of these regions...
The above info is for reference only... Please check the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA...
2024-05-25 10:05 PST
(Image from JMA)