People are underestimating impact of incoming low rates
Here is the Fed funds rate from 2011-2021 when Bitcoin made its largest gains
- 2011: 0.07%
- 2012: 0.09%
- 2013: 0.09%
- 2014: 0.12%
- 2015: 0.24% (First rate hike in December 2015 since June 2006)
- 2016: 0.54%
- 2017: 1.30%
- 2018: 2.27%
- 2019: 1.55%
- 2020: 0.09% (Dropped to near-zero in March 2020 due to COVID-19)
- 2021: 0.08%
The fact that Bitcoin has maintained its current price level DESPITE FED FUNDS RATE OF 4.25-4.50% IS ASTONISHING! It was only ever above 2% for one of its first decade run!
When we get back down to 1-2% from the current 4.25-4.50%, Bitcoin will easily surpass $1 million.
https://redd.it/1nddroy
@r_bitcoin
Here is the Fed funds rate from 2011-2021 when Bitcoin made its largest gains
- 2011: 0.07%
- 2012: 0.09%
- 2013: 0.09%
- 2014: 0.12%
- 2015: 0.24% (First rate hike in December 2015 since June 2006)
- 2016: 0.54%
- 2017: 1.30%
- 2018: 2.27%
- 2019: 1.55%
- 2020: 0.09% (Dropped to near-zero in March 2020 due to COVID-19)
- 2021: 0.08%
The fact that Bitcoin has maintained its current price level DESPITE FED FUNDS RATE OF 4.25-4.50% IS ASTONISHING! It was only ever above 2% for one of its first decade run!
When we get back down to 1-2% from the current 4.25-4.50%, Bitcoin will easily surpass $1 million.
https://redd.it/1nddroy
@r_bitcoin
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Bitcoin: Risk Metric, $113,425 corresponding to risk 56 over 100
Everything here is pure data. I cooked up this algorithm to track BTC daily closing price (UTC) since 2010.
The result is a risk score between 0 and 100 that shows exactly where today’s market stands relative to BTC entire history.
0 = historically low, undervalued conditions
100 = historically overheated, high-risk territory
\*History of Peaks and Bottoms**
1st halving Nov-28-2012:
(Nov-22-2011) Bottom price at $2.3 ,risk score: 30 (blue)
(Apr-08-2013) Heated peak at $238 ,risk score: 100 (red)
(Dec-03-2013) Top price at $1,151 ,risk score: 89 (red)
2nd halving Jul-09-2016:
(Jan-13-2015) Bottom price at $176.6 ,risk score: 22 (blue)
(Jan-04-2017) Heated peak at $1,127 ,risk score: 81 (red)
(Dec-16-2017) Top price at $19,280 ,risk score: 95 (red)
3rd halving May-11-2020:
(Dec-14-2018) Bottom price at $3,278 ,risk score: 19 (green)
(Apr-14-2021) Heated peak at $63,554 ,risk score: 90 (red)
(Nov-09-2021) Top price at $67,562 ,risk score: 76 (pink)
4th halving Apirl-20-2024:
(Nov-22-2022) Bottom price at $15,760, risk score:4 (green)
(Mar-14-2024) Heated peak at $73,094, risk score: 81 (red)
Current price 113,425 ,risk score 56,
This cycle is the first where BTC 2022 bottom retraced all the way below the 2017 cycle top. That’s why, compared to other cycles, the bottom carried a slightly higher risk score.
Historically, BTC bottoms usually sit at a risk score below 30. On the way up to a cycle top, Bitcoin also tends to spend significant time in the heated zone (80–100) before topping out.
So far in this cycle, we’ve only seen ONLY 2 brief spikes where risk touched the low end of the heated zone (just above 80, in red). We haven’t yet seen BTC spend any sustained time in the full heated range (80–100).
Currently:
A risk score of 80 corresponds to a price of about $177,445 (this shifts over time, the longer the cycle continues, the higher the model will push that level). Also, the eventual top may not happen exactly at risk 80; it could be higher
https://preview.redd.it/z5x4t35ozdof1.png?width=1318&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbcf653988d48ec08aac2d5915487c58f5c09629
** How the Risk Metric calculated**
First, I gather BTC daily closing prices (UTC) going back to 2010. Then, I run it through my model, which layers several signals together:
Momentum (RSI – Relative Strength Index): Gauges if the market is running hot or cooling off.
Volatility (RVI – Relative Volatility Index): Measures whether recent swings are driven more by buyers or sellers.
Baseline (Moving Average, e.g., 200 days): Tracks the “fair value” price to see if BTC is stretched above or below its trend.
Recency weighting: Gives more importance to recent data so the score adapts to current conditions.
Trend smoothing: Filters out noise from short-term spikes, keeping the score stable and reliable.
The calculation in concept:
Risk Score \~ (log(Price) − log(Moving Average)) x (RSI Adjustment) x (RVI Adjustment) x (Recency Weight) x (Trend Smoothing) \-> scaled to 0–100.
https://redd.it/1ndnioa
@r_bitcoin
Everything here is pure data. I cooked up this algorithm to track BTC daily closing price (UTC) since 2010.
The result is a risk score between 0 and 100 that shows exactly where today’s market stands relative to BTC entire history.
0 = historically low, undervalued conditions
100 = historically overheated, high-risk territory
\*History of Peaks and Bottoms**
1st halving Nov-28-2012:
(Nov-22-2011) Bottom price at $2.3 ,risk score: 30 (blue)
(Apr-08-2013) Heated peak at $238 ,risk score: 100 (red)
(Dec-03-2013) Top price at $1,151 ,risk score: 89 (red)
2nd halving Jul-09-2016:
(Jan-13-2015) Bottom price at $176.6 ,risk score: 22 (blue)
(Jan-04-2017) Heated peak at $1,127 ,risk score: 81 (red)
(Dec-16-2017) Top price at $19,280 ,risk score: 95 (red)
3rd halving May-11-2020:
(Dec-14-2018) Bottom price at $3,278 ,risk score: 19 (green)
(Apr-14-2021) Heated peak at $63,554 ,risk score: 90 (red)
(Nov-09-2021) Top price at $67,562 ,risk score: 76 (pink)
4th halving Apirl-20-2024:
(Nov-22-2022) Bottom price at $15,760, risk score:4 (green)
(Mar-14-2024) Heated peak at $73,094, risk score: 81 (red)
Current price 113,425 ,risk score 56,
This cycle is the first where BTC 2022 bottom retraced all the way below the 2017 cycle top. That’s why, compared to other cycles, the bottom carried a slightly higher risk score.
Historically, BTC bottoms usually sit at a risk score below 30. On the way up to a cycle top, Bitcoin also tends to spend significant time in the heated zone (80–100) before topping out.
So far in this cycle, we’ve only seen ONLY 2 brief spikes where risk touched the low end of the heated zone (just above 80, in red). We haven’t yet seen BTC spend any sustained time in the full heated range (80–100).
Currently:
A risk score of 80 corresponds to a price of about $177,445 (this shifts over time, the longer the cycle continues, the higher the model will push that level). Also, the eventual top may not happen exactly at risk 80; it could be higher
https://preview.redd.it/z5x4t35ozdof1.png?width=1318&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbcf653988d48ec08aac2d5915487c58f5c09629
** How the Risk Metric calculated**
First, I gather BTC daily closing prices (UTC) going back to 2010. Then, I run it through my model, which layers several signals together:
Momentum (RSI – Relative Strength Index): Gauges if the market is running hot or cooling off.
Volatility (RVI – Relative Volatility Index): Measures whether recent swings are driven more by buyers or sellers.
Baseline (Moving Average, e.g., 200 days): Tracks the “fair value” price to see if BTC is stretched above or below its trend.
Recency weighting: Gives more importance to recent data so the score adapts to current conditions.
Trend smoothing: Filters out noise from short-term spikes, keeping the score stable and reliable.
The calculation in concept:
Risk Score \~ (log(Price) − log(Moving Average)) x (RSI Adjustment) x (RVI Adjustment) x (Recency Weight) x (Trend Smoothing) \-> scaled to 0–100.
https://redd.it/1ndnioa
@r_bitcoin
Daily Discussion, September 11, 2025
Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!
If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.
Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.
https://redd.it/1ne12ub
@r_bitcoin
Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!
If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.
Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.
https://redd.it/1ne12ub
@r_bitcoin
Reddit
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If bitcoin hits 1m
There has been so much hype about the 1 million mark recently.
If bitcoin ever hit it do you think it would spark a huge sell off?
https://redd.it/1ne20lo
@r_bitcoin
There has been so much hype about the 1 million mark recently.
If bitcoin ever hit it do you think it would spark a huge sell off?
https://redd.it/1ne20lo
@r_bitcoin
Reddit
From the Bitcoin community on Reddit
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