r/DetroitPistons

lately). Those uncertainties are more easily answered with another season of data, which is exactly what makes an extension now so tricky.

Based on a model I’m working on, here is Ivey’s current projection (assuming 8% raises YoY):

https://preview.redd.it/ekgodecfiqqf1.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=6688dbd57b7e8f288831707860cbb908798dd2f4

Just on my gut test, I think this probably underrates Ivey. Also based on my gut test, I think Ivey thinks this probably underrates Ivey. After all, Jalen Green is set to earn 21.72% of the Cap, Jalen Suggs 22.63% of the Cap, and Devin Vassell earned 20.88% of the Cap in year 1 of his extension. Those are probably the names that Ivey is circling as comps.

But there’s a lot of uncertainty! My gut isn’t so sure that the Pistons think this underrates Ivey right now. His first two seasons were relatively underwhelming, and he’s an athletic player coming off a major injury.

Bottom Line: I predict no extension and each side will bet on another season of data leading them to the right place.

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren took a leap in the last two-thirds of year 3 and into the playoffs. He was really good. There’s a similar sample size question to Jaden Ivey, though.

https://preview.redd.it/dhddxuygiqqf1.png?width=1104&format=png&auto=webp&s=c13ebf543fbf2897cd642d2b28a1d14029175393

Questions remain about Duren’s defensive ceiling and how well he fits alongside Pistons other than Cade Cunningham. More broadly, the league still wrestles with how much to pay non-shooting bigs (and non-shooting players more generally). It’s tough to keep more than one on the floor at a time, which makes investing heavily in one a tricky proposition. In my opinion, the biggest Duren question marks are (1) his fit with Ausar Thompson — with Detroit likely preparing to pay him next summer, two non-shooters on the floor is a tough puzzle — and (2) whether his production is sustainable.

Based on a model I’m working on, here is Duren’s current projection (assuming 8% raises YoY):

https://preview.redd.it/biqpo75iiqqf1.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=795acea9aeafd253a40ab54f0bf4ebb5bf910e0f

The total value and AAV here feel about right — maybe a bit high. I wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit pushes for a flatter structure or a team option to preserve future flexibility.

Bottom line: Duren is probably good enough, young enough, and trending enough in the right direction for the Pistons to lock him in now.

Thinking About the Summer of 2026

If we pencil in somewhere around $50 million total in 2026-27 salary for Ivey and Duren, they’ll still project with quite a bit of flexibility below the Tax Level with two open roster spots.

https://preview.redd.it/ki2bwazkiqqf1.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eade0f4b8795dea42a3216d8135213219f31b12

This room could be used on re-signing Tobias Harris, using the Mid-Level, or acquiring a bigger salary via trade.

There’s also a potential cap space plan worth mentioning. My general rule is that any team can find cap space if they really want to (not that it always makes sense to want to). Here’s one way they could do this:

1. Don’t extend Duren if his projected Y1 cap hit exceeds his current cap hold of $19,449,432. This would allow them to keep his hold on the books (and his Bird Rights) and make other transactions with the space available.
2. Extend Ivey at a figure somewhere below his $30,321,489 cap hold. Let’s ballpark it at $22.5 million for now.
3. Decline Marcus Sasser’s 2026-27 team option.
4. In the summer, waive Duncan Robinson (just $2,000,000 guaranteed next season).
5. Renounce Tobias Harris’ $39,951,219 cap hold (and the rest of the cap holds leftover on their books).
6. Trade Caris LeVert into another team’s MLE.
7. Trade Paul Reed into another team’s TPE.

That combination nets roughly $31 million in Cap Space to use before circling back to Duren. It’s probably not the optimal route, but it is worth flagging as a contingency if things go sideways. You never know.

# (3) The Big Swing Decision

As it

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