It looks like global fears are kicking in, as the stock market is showing a massive gap-down in pre-open trading. I'm holding onto my BTC buys and considering adding more below 80k. I think this week could be promising, though the short-term outlook remains uncertain. As long as you avoid getting liquidated, you should be fine with BTC. Eventually, even the stock market will bounce. People gaslight themselves into a <this time is different> narrative every stock market crash.

I will update this Telegram less frequently going forward. The goal is to document my market perspectives over a broader horizon. In my experience, there are only a handful of great trades each year, typically characterized by one of following things: 1) A major unexpected event that triggers a significant market impact, involving many participants forced to act. 2) The market's reaction to major market impacting news, providing a contextual edge.

I’m well aware that there are many other ways to gain an edge. However, these are the conditions I believe offer the best insight for forming multi-week to multi-month views. Going forward, I’ll be focusing on different aspects of my life, prioritizing the most substantial opportunities over minor gains.

The tariff-related fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) seem to be losing steam, as Trump has announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China. I believe the extended sell-off down to $75,000 was driven by uncertainty over whether the situation would escalate further. I continue to think that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into BTC around $80,000 is a good strategy. I’ve been adding to my position between $83,000 and $75,000 over the past week. That said, I wouldn’t try to time the market using leverage in this environment—this isn’t a crypto-specific market right now, but rather a traditional finance (trad-fi), headline-driven one. I’ll gain more conviction about what’s next once I see crypto-specific developments and the market’s reaction to them.

This is the trade I am in, will look to add on dips if we are lucky to get some, Perhaps in the 83K area I would get a bit of leverage. I don't think meddling too much with it is going to out-perform. I think the market is bullish until proven otherwise, and we have already hit the bottom last week. This is bitcoin's chance to shine, and I refuse to miss on it.

For the record, I still hold my 75k-83k BTC buys, but I've decided to close the leverage portion above 84k this morning. This generated a small profit, and I'll be happy with it. My idea was only valid if we succeeded at showing strength from my entry. Now I will focus on staying calm and holding spot, perhaps even buying more if we dip again closer to 80k. It seems like the market is simply not ready for a trend yet, so staying clear from leverage until the next opportunity to take a stab at longs.

Looking good, seeing some thicker offers around 98k-100k area. Will be a tough nut to crack unless Saylor TWAPs into it. I would personally add on large dips if we get them. My expectation is that we break 100k sooner or later, but buying into it after a rip isn't the way to go.

Not much to say, we’re in an uptrend and small dips are nothing to panic about. Every small dip for the past month got absorbed. ATH will come, sooner or later.

My strategy is to keep my spot bags as the long exposure. But this reminds me of previous failed ATH breaks so far, I wouldn't leverage into the ATH. Can easily dip below 100k if there's a bad wave of selling. I had a strong read from 80k to here but now it gets a bit trickier for the leverage.

Finally looking healthier now that this degen is out of the way.

Was a bit careful above 110k 48 hours ago, seemed frothy with that HL whale longing 11K+ BTC. Now that this guy closed fully, and even flipped slightly short, we've seen that the market can easily absorb $1B+ of sell pressure in a short time-span. This makes the picture healthier. Very unlikely that we've topped, unless some macro factors kick in on Monday and lead to global blood, higher is the most +EV bet from here. Current prices below 108k are a 3-4% dip from peak, those are expected.

Personally, I own a spot bag from 80ks that I won't touch, this remains the same through the up-run. But I will consider adding longs on dips from here onwards, although I won't share specific trades, I can share when I see something worth noting like above, to enable or disable that option in my personal trading.

Market is way deeper than I expected. It’s not just one-sided. The HL whale closed his 10K BTC short and it barely moved us in the short term for about 1000$. Not much to conclude from this saga other than bitcoin is highly liquid, far more than any previous cycles. At least by many multiples.

Personally just spot long again, closed the leverage. Made a dime longing 107k to 108.2K and I’m happy to just chill comfy in spot again.