🇪🇺#FEZ #etf #europe #seasonality
Historically, the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 ETF has started to grow in April.

🌟 Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser

🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #sentiment
Carson: historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, US stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990.

This extremely rare situation is unfolding right now. In the past 35 years, it has happened only three times.
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The proportion of 'bears' among individual investors in the U.S. stock market is at a historic high (chart)

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⚠️🇺🇸#tradewars #us #tariffs #economy
Trump's reciprocal tariffs will raise the average U.S. import tariff rate to its highest level since the early 1900s. If these tariffs remain at this level for an extended period, they will pose a significant risk to both the U.S. and global economies.

#opinion If Trump begins to negotiate and tariffs begin to fall, it would be a strong bullish surprise for the markets and likely trigger a significant rally. On the other hand, if tariffs remain high for an extended period of time, it could have serious negative consequences for both risk assets and the broader economy.
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The U.S. is imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from almost every country in the world. Major economies, including China, Japan, the EU and Canada, have already vowed to retaliate.

Trump tariff rollout opens new era of risk for global economy

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⚠️🇺🇸#economy #us #unemployment
Expectations for rising unemployment in the U.S. have reached historic highs.

Over the past half century, every time unemployment expectations have reached such high levels, the U.S. has experienced a recession. #recession

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🇺🇸#analogy #us #economy #stocks #history
the current state of the U.S. economy, politics and stock market bears a striking resemblance to President Nixon's first term:

- Like Trump, Nixon imposed a 10% tariff on imports #tariffs

- Both leaders rose to power on a wave of populism #elections

- Nixon sought to create a rift between China and the Soviet Union - Trump is pursuing a similar strategy by trying to divide China and Russia #geopolitics

- Nixon sought to end the Vietnam War - similarly, Trump is working to end the conflict in Ukraine.

- Both presidents expressed deep skepticism of the Washington establishment and the mainstream media #politics

If history is repeating itself, we may be on the verge of a sharp decline in the S&P 500 - followed by a swift and robust recovery … but isn’t guaranteed to.

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🇺🇸#VIX #stocks #us #history
A highly unusual event occurred - one that has only happened four times in the past 40 years of observation. The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the "fear index," spiked to 50 and then quickly dropped back to 30 based on daily closing prices, all in a very short period of time. Historically, this type of move has occurred as the S&P 500 bottoms out and prepares for a new uptrend.

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🌎#commodity #cycles #macro
MUFG: we are in the early stages of a commodities supercycle — report

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⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #macro
Inflation in the U.S. continues to mirror the patterns of the 1970s.

The current situation bears a strong resemblance to that era - but instead of an oil embargo, the U.S. now faces restrictions on rare earth metals.

Amid ongoing trade wars, the commodities market could experience a sharp upswing similar to the 1970s. — experts
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MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)

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🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us
US companies are announcing share buybacks at a record pace.
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Since 2011, share buyback programs have been the main driver of growth in the S&P 500 (chart)

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⚠️🇺🇸#economy #us #recession #sentiment
US companies are seeing a sharp drop in new orders. The New Orders Expectations Indicator from the regional Federal Reserve Banks has fallen to levels that typically signal an impending US recession.
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The unemployment outlook is another sign that a U.S. recession could be on the way (chart)

BCA Research warns of a 75% chance of a US recession in the next three months due to trade wars and policy uncertainties = bearish for S&P500

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🇺🇸#USD #fx #short #sentiment
Investment assets managers have significantly ramped up their bets against the dollar, with short positions reaching record highs. Historically, such extreme levels of bearish sentiment have often marked a turning point, with the dollar index finding a bottom and staging a rebound. Currently, the dollar (DXY) looks oversold against a basket of global currencies.

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🌎#fx #maro #history
many investors fear that the US dollar may continue to weaken due to rising government debt and risky fiscal policies in the US. As a result, they are willing to consider other global currencies to partially replace the dollar in their investment portfolios. Below is a classification of some of these currencies:

🔸 Cyclical currencies (#AUD, #NZD, #CAD, #SEK, #NOK, #GBP): perform well in strong equity markets but lag in downturns. Offer higher yields with greater risk and lower liquidity than #USD or #EUR. #SGD is a liquid alternative that often moves inversely to USD.

🔸 Defensive currencies (#CHF, #JPY, #CNY): hold up better during market stress with lower yields. CHF and JPY are classic safe havens, preferred for stability and capital preservation. #CNY shows low volatility against USD.

🔸 Emerging market currencies (#BRL, #MXN, #ZAR #COP): offer the highest yields but come with high volatility, low liquidity, and capital controls. They may experience sharp declines in risk-offenvironments or when country-specific factors are at play, and tend to attract mostly experienced and risk-tolerant investors.

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🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us
U.S. companies are actively repurchasing their own shares through buyback programs.

Historically, buyback programs have been a significant driver of S&P 500 growth (chart)

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⚠️#monetarypolicy #us #stagflation #USD #stocks #bonds
Trump may be on the verge of bending the Fed to his will. And history shows what usually follows: a surge in inflation.

🔸This wouldn’t be the first time. U.S. presidents have pressured the Fed before — and the results were strikingly similar.

🔸 Nixon (1972) leaned on the Fed to boost the economy ahead of his re-election.
🔸 Johnson (1960s) pushed for easy money to fund the Vietnam War and Great Society programs..

🔸A study by Thomas Drechsel, using data from 1933 to 2016, examined presidential meetings with the Fed. It found that political pressure tends to raise inflation — but without boosting GDP. In fact, GDP often stagnates or declines as inflation expectations rise.

➡️Monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve under political pressure could lead to stagflation which typically harms both bonds and equities, as markets tend to react more negatively to such a scenario than to standard monetary easing. It could also weaken the dollar, as threats to the Fed’s independence undermine confidence in the U.S. currency.

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🌎#inflation #fx #history #safehaven
This chart partly explains why the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are considered safe-haven currencies.

Why yen and franc are safe-haven currencies:

🔸 Historically low inflation in Japan and Swiss.

🔸 Strong balance of payments in Japan and Swiss.

🔸 Political and economic stability in both countries.

🔸 Low interest rates — investors often borrow in #JPY and #CHF at low cost, and during crises they close these positions by buying back the currency (short squeeze), which drives it higher.

🔸 A long-standing track record of investor trust in these currencies during times of crisis.

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🥈 #platinum #shortage #metals
Platinum remains in deficit, pushing metal prices higher.

🔸 A deficit alone does not always guarantee higher prices, but in the case of platinum, it coincides with a revival in jewelry demand and production issues at its key supplier — South Africa. Together, these factors push prices higher.

🔸 Rising gold prices are prompting jewelers to switch to platinum. According to BofA estimates, even a 1% shift from gold to platinum in jewelry could double the metal’s deficit, although this estimate remains subject to debate!

🔸 On the other hand, demand from the automotive industry — platinum’s largest consumer — may decline due to U.S. tariff policies, accelerated electrification of China’s vehicle fleet, and substitution with cheaper palladium, which is currently abundant on the market.

🔸 Years of low prices have led to reduced output and capital investment, limiting supply. According to HSBC, the recent price rebound has done little to change the picture.

🔸 Today, just 90% of global platinum production is profitable (up from 60% at the end of last year), but this remains insufficient to encourage meaningful supply expansion.

➡️Analysts estimate that to close the deficit and trigger new production, platinum prices would need to rise by roughly another 50% — a process that could take years.

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🇨🇳#stocks #china #history
Compared to the past, Chinese stocks don’t look as cheap anymore.

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📈 Scorpi18 portfolio return (05 Sep. 2025):

- MONTH: +1%
- YEAR: +30%
- SINCE 2014: +750%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'

🇺🇸#VIX #stocks #us #history
A rare event happened recently: the US stock market volatility index (VIX) fell for four months in a row. Historically, the S&P 500 has been higher nine months later every single time after this happened.

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🇺🇸#stocks #us #seasonality
The second half of September has historically been a weak period for the US stock market. Lately, though, experts say that historical market patterns have begun to falter.

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