⚠️🇩🇪#recession #economy #germany
the probability of a recession in Germany in the next 12 months is increasing
the probability of a recession in Germany in the next 12 months is increasing
👍3
🇺🇸#monetarypolicy #us #sentiment #history
the history of changes in the Fed rate and market expectations.
Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed rate.
market consensus: Fed will start cutting rates after June 2024.
——————————
earlier: historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. #warning
the history of changes in the Fed rate and market expectations.
Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed rate.
market consensus: Fed will start cutting rates after June 2024.
——————————
earlier: historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. #warning
👍6❤1
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Market Insights
🎱 Where are you from?
If you didn't find your country in the list, add it in the comments.
If you didn't find your country in the list, add it in the comments.
Anonymous Poll
15%
🇰🇷 S. Korea
5%
🌍 Africa/MENA
21%
🇮🇳 India
4%
🇸🇬 Singapore
4%
🇺🇸 🇨🇦 N. America
29%
🇬🇧 🇪🇺 UK/EU
6%
🇷🇺 Russia
7%
🇺🇦 🇰🇿 🇺🇿 Ukraine/Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan
3%
🇨🇳 🇭🇰 China/Hong Kong
7%
🇧🇷 Brazil
⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #liquidity #us
the M2 money supply in the US is once again on the rise, prompting concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
————————
correlation between M2 money supply and inflation in the US (chart)
MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s
US consumer inflation: present days vs. 1970s (chart)
the M2 money supply in the US is once again on the rise, prompting concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
————————
correlation between M2 money supply and inflation in the US (chart)
MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s
US consumer inflation: present days vs. 1970s (chart)
👍4🤔1
⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #concentration #bubble #macro #history #warning
In terms of concentration (the top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon account for 25% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index), today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 — Deutsche
———————
earlier: historically, high concentrations of a few companies in index weights have been observed during the formation of stock market bubbles
In terms of concentration (the top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon account for 25% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index), today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 — Deutsche
———————
earlier: historically, high concentrations of a few companies in index weights have been observed during the formation of stock market bubbles
👍5