⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #analogy #warning
a favorite pastime in the market is searching for historical analogies.
another analogy: S&P 500 (2020s) vs. S&P 500 (1960s).
the current dynamics of the S&P 500 index surprisingly mirror its movement in the early 1960s.
In 1969, with the onset of stagflation, the S&P 500 began a prolonged and volatile decline. It took the index 20 years to recover.
a favorite pastime in the market is searching for historical analogies.
another analogy: S&P 500 (2020s) vs. S&P 500 (1960s).
the current dynamics of the S&P 500 index surprisingly mirror its movement in the early 1960s.
In 1969, with the onset of stagflation, the S&P 500 began a prolonged and volatile decline. It took the index 20 years to recover.
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🌍#renewables #solar #forecast
Rystad: by 2030, solar energy will be one of the most important sources of electricity in the Middle East, second only to gas.
#DQ
Rystad: by 2030, solar energy will be one of the most important sources of electricity in the Middle East, second only to gas.
#DQ
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🇺🇸#stocks #us #correlation #concentration
BofA: correlation between the stocks in the S&P 500 index and the index itself has dropped to its lowest level in 20 years.
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weight of the top 3 stocks (#MSFT, #AAPL, #NVDA) in the S&P 500 = historic record.
weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 = historic record.
market cap of the top 10% of stocks has hit its highest level since 1929, surpassing 2000 (chart)
JPMorgan: the dominance of the 10 biggest stocks in US equity markets is increasingly drawing similarities with the dot-com #bubble
BofA: correlation between the stocks in the S&P 500 index and the index itself has dropped to its lowest level in 20 years.
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weight of the top 3 stocks (#MSFT, #AAPL, #NVDA) in the S&P 500 = historic record.
weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 = historic record.
market cap of the top 10% of stocks has hit its highest level since 1929, surpassing 2000 (chart)
JPMorgan: the dominance of the 10 biggest stocks in US equity markets is increasingly drawing similarities with the dot-com #bubble
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⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #sentiment
US long-term inflation expectations at record levels.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)
US long-term inflation expectations at record levels.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)
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⚠️🇨🇳#realestate #china #macro
BBG: there is currently a housing oversupply in China. It would take more than four years to offload the country's 60 million unsold apartments without government aid.
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housing prices in China continue to decline (chart).
earlier: the real estate crisis in China will hit the economy harder than in the US in 2008.
BBG: there is currently a housing oversupply in China. It would take more than four years to offload the country's 60 million unsold apartments without government aid.
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housing prices in China continue to decline (chart).
earlier: the real estate crisis in China will hit the economy harder than in the US in 2008.
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⚠️🌎#markets #world #crisis #warning
Goldman's fundamental "bear market" indicator (made from a mix of jobs data, inflation, the yield curve, the manufacturing index, valuations, and the net savings of households and businesses) points to the potential onset of a global financial market collapse.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
Goldman's fundamental "bear market" indicator (made from a mix of jobs data, inflation, the yield curve, the manufacturing index, valuations, and the net savings of households and businesses) points to the potential onset of a global financial market collapse.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
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⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #liquidity #warning
there is now a significant divergence between the growth of M2 in the US and the growth of the S&P 500
there is now a significant divergence between the growth of M2 in the US and the growth of the S&P 500
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💥🇺🇸#liquidity #us #markets
the growth rate of the US M2 money supply continues to accelerate = bullish for risk assets.
the growth rate of the US M2 money supply continues to accelerate = bullish for risk assets.
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🌎#economy #weather #macro
BBG: the average global temperature continues to rise. Extreme heat wreaks havoc across many parts of the global economy.
#opinion some experts believe that the rise in temperature has nothing to do with human activity, but is simply a cyclical change in nature.
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#inflation extreme temperatures are posing significant challenges for farmers, and the weather's impact could result in prolonged higher food inflation - details
#coal efforts to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius are failing “across the board” — and major shifts will be required to create meaningful change, including a much faster move away from using coal to generate electricity - details
BBG: the average global temperature continues to rise. Extreme heat wreaks havoc across many parts of the global economy.
#opinion some experts believe that the rise in temperature has nothing to do with human activity, but is simply a cyclical change in nature.
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#inflation extreme temperatures are posing significant challenges for farmers, and the weather's impact could result in prolonged higher food inflation - details
#coal efforts to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius are failing “across the board” — and major shifts will be required to create meaningful change, including a much faster move away from using coal to generate electricity - details
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⚠️🌎#markets #stocks #bubble #warning
Buffett Indicator hits 195% = the highest level in history
Buffett Indicator hits 195% = the highest level in history
For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% to 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire — Buffett
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⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #monetarypolicy #history
i3 Invest: сorrelation between 3-Month US Treasury Bills and the S&P 500
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BofA: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
RIA: the majority of 'bear markets' occur after the Fed's 'policy pivot' (chart).
ElliotWave: the transition from 'tightening' to 'easing' has usually coincided with a period of significant market decline (chart).
i3 Invest: сorrelation between 3-Month US Treasury Bills and the S&P 500
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BofA: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
RIA: the majority of 'bear markets' occur after the Fed's 'policy pivot' (chart).
ElliotWave: the transition from 'tightening' to 'easing' has usually coincided with a period of significant market decline (chart).
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🇮🇳#economy #india #macro #forecast
India can become the world’s second-largest economy by 2031 and the largest economy by 2060 — deputy governor of Reserve Bank of India
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India will account for 18% of global growth by 2028, to play key role in global economy — IMF
Indian economy's size to double by 2031 to $6.7 trillion — S&P Global
billionaire Ray Dalio heralded India as the next big investing opportunity Thursday, saying that the country was primed for massive growth that would echo China's economic transformation in the 1980s — BI
India can become the world’s second-largest economy by 2031 and the largest economy by 2060 — deputy governor of Reserve Bank of India
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India will account for 18% of global growth by 2028, to play key role in global economy — IMF
Indian economy's size to double by 2031 to $6.7 trillion — S&P Global
billionaire Ray Dalio heralded India as the next big investing opportunity Thursday, saying that the country was primed for massive growth that would echo China's economic transformation in the 1980s — BI
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