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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ#economy #india #macro #forecast
India can become the worldโ€™s second-largest economy by 2031 and the largest economy by 2060 โ€” deputy governor of Reserve Bank of India
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India will account for 18% of global growth by 2028, to play key role in global economy โ€” IMF

Indian economy's size to double by 2031 to $6.7 trillion โ€” S&P Global

billionaire Ray Dalio heralded India as the next big investing opportunity Thursday, saying that the country was primed for massive growth that would echo China's economic transformation in the 1980s โ€” BI
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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#economy #markets #us #elections #warning
after the assassination attempt on Trump, the odds of his victory skyrocketed.
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#opinion Trump's promise of tariffs and deportations could pop the stock market bubble if he wins a 2nd term โ€” Capital Economics

Trumpโ€™s policies would trigger a recession by mid-2025 โ€” FT

Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect โ€” Economist

hereโ€™s a rundown of some of Trumpโ€™s proposals โ€” read more
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ#economy #lending #china
China loan growth = min since 1999

โš ๏ธ#QFIN #LX
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๐ŸŒ#battery #world
BNEF: there is a global overcapacity in battery production.

by the end of 2025, the global battery industry will be able to produce more than five times as many cells as the world will need that year.

โš ๏ธ#PKX
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ#battery #china
BBG: battery prices in China are plummeting due to an oversupply of manufacturing capacity.

#ev #cars EV will be able to compete on a level playing field with conventional cars when the price of batteries falls to $100 per kilowatt-hour. In China, the price has already fallen to $53, which is very good for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

#renewables solar and wind energy in China could greatly benefit from the decline in battery prices. Energy storage market continues to grow #marketsize
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #history
a history of SP500 bull and bear markets.

JPMorgan: the average bull market lasts 46 months, approximately 3 times longer than the average bear market.
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #europe #history
there is a significant gap between the valuations of European and US companies. Historically, valuations of companies in the two markets have not differed significantly.
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EU stocks are at a record low valuation compared to US stocks (chart).
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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#inflation #us #macro
current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1966-1983.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.

Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect โ€” read more
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #concentration #macro
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Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stcoks #us #monetarypolicy
Morgan: historically, high-quality growth stocks tend to outperform cyclical stocks during a Fed rate cut cycle.

๐Ÿง I have no idea how they calculated it. Anyone interested can clarify this with the author ([email protected]) and don't forget to share the information in the Scorpi18|Conversation chat.
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๐ŸŒ•#gold #monetarypolicy #history
historically, gold has become more attractive during periods of Fed rate cuts.
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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #bubble #hisory
BofA reports that 19 out of 20 of its metrics indicate that the US market is overheated by historical standards.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #opinion
SocGen: history shows that extremely concentrated markets tend to precede crashes, as occurred during the run-up to the 2007- 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 bear market. There is no reason why this time would be any different โ€” read more
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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต#population #japan #economy
Japanese population falls at the fastest pace in the history of observations.

BBG: the population decline poses a number of problems for Japan's economy, including a shortage of labor for businesses and pressure on the government budget.
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๐ŸŒŽ#tax #stocks #us
Topdown Charts: US publicly traded companies have the lowest effective tax rate in the world.
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โš ๏ธ๐ŸŒŽ#debt #macro
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Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #monetarypolicy #history
Goldman: markets are anticipating an imminent rate cut by the Fed. Historically, the S&P 500 rises 10% in the 12 months following the first rate cut. However, if the US economy enters a recession during this period, the index typically falls by an average of 15%.

Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
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โš ๏ธ๐ŸŒŽ#copper #metals
copper inventories in warehouses across Asia are rapidly increasing. Analysts do not rule out continued pressure on prices.
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#recession the rise in copper inventories signals potential problems in the global economy.
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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ#stocks #china
Chinaโ€™s blue chip stocks look more attractive than ever amid interest rate cuts, declining bond yields, and generous dividend payouts.
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โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ#china #savings #macro #opinion
SocGen: Chinese household savings exceed the country's annual GDP โ€” read more

... if China were an open market economy, its capital markets would be the biggest in the world โ€” FT

#stocks Chinese household savings have accumulated to twice the capitalization of the entire Chinese stock market. Sooner or later, these savings will flow into the domestic stock market, which is denominated in yuan.
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2025/10/21 18:47:15
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