⚠️🇨🇳#economy #china #macro
Barclays: Chinese economy increasingly resembles the Japanese one, with all its shortcomings (low inflation, low population growth and low interest rates) — report
*access to the full report is available by subscription.
Barclays: Chinese economy increasingly resembles the Japanese one, with all its shortcomings (low inflation, low population growth and low interest rates) — report
*access to the full report is available by subscription.
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🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds #cash #strategy
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
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🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #bubble
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
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⚠️🇺🇸#recession #us #history #warning
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months — this is precisely what has now occurred.
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months — this is precisely what has now occurred.
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⚠️🌎#stocks #macro #history
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
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Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
🇺🇸#stocks #monetarypolicy #us #analogy
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser
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⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #forecast #history
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
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🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #seasonality
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
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🇨🇳#stocks #china #bonds #history
China 5-year bond yields is at a historic low.
Historically, 5-year Chinese bond yield below 2% has signaled the imminent start of a strong bull market in the MSCI China.
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valuation of Chinese equities relative to global equities is currently at historically low levels (chart)
China 5-year bond yields is at a historic low.
Historically, 5-year Chinese bond yield below 2% has signaled the imminent start of a strong bull market in the MSCI China.
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valuation of Chinese equities relative to global equities is currently at historically low levels (chart)
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⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #macro
BofA: current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1967-1985.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect — read more
BofA: current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1967-1985.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect — read more
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🌕#gold #monetarypolicy #history
historically, gold rises over 15% on average within 24 months of the first Fed rate cut.
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gold becomes more attractive during periods of Fed rate cuts (chart).
historically, gold rises over 15% on average within 24 months of the first Fed rate cut.
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gold becomes more attractive during periods of Fed rate cuts (chart).
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🇺🇸#elections #us #history
who will be next president of US? Harris leads Trump.
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US stock market performs better under a Democratic president than under a Republican president (chart).
Factor in control of Congress, however, and the performance patterns shift.
who will be next president of US? Harris leads Trump.
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US stock market performs better under a Democratic president than under a Republican president (chart).
Factor in control of Congress, however, and the performance patterns shift.
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⚠️🇨🇳#china #economy #liquidity
сorrelation between GDP growth and money supply (M1) growth in China.
Yardeni: China's nominal GDP growth could fall to zero or turn negative over the next six months.
сorrelation between GDP growth and money supply (M1) growth in China.
Yardeni: China's nominal GDP growth could fall to zero or turn negative over the next six months.
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🌎#stocks #bonds #retailinvestors
What's new on the premium channel Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser:
1) Database of fraud investigations in Asian public companies — read more
2) US data center market overview by Barclays — research
3) Global metals and coal by BofA — research
4) Equity research LexinFintech (#LX) — read more
5) US Treasury market by Apollo — research
6) Economic outlook by SEB — research
7) China equity strategy by Morgan Stanley — research
8) New update of the watchlist — read more
9) Actual Portfolio (30 Aug. 2024) — read more
10) Update of the library of useful resources for investors — read more
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*subscribe to the premium channel for $5/month.
What's new on the premium channel Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser:
1) Database of fraud investigations in Asian public companies — read more
2) US data center market overview by Barclays — research
3) Global metals and coal by BofA — research
4) Equity research LexinFintech (#LX) — read more
5) US Treasury market by Apollo — research
6) Economic outlook by SEB — research
7) China equity strategy by Morgan Stanley — research
8) New update of the watchlist — read more
9) Actual Portfolio (30 Aug. 2024) — read more
10) Update of the library of useful resources for investors — read more
——————————————
*subscribe to the premium channel for $5/month.
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