๐บ๐ธ#stocks #us #history
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.
๐#commodity #history
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low
#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)
#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopoliticsโmilitary conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.
#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low
#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)
#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopoliticsโmilitary conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.
#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
- WEEK: -0%
- MONTH: -0%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +676%
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๐บ๐ธ#vix #stocks #us #seasonality
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.
๐ช#silver #forecast
silver market deficit expected to persist, potentially driving metal prices higher โ BofA report*
#opinion for many years, the world's central banks have not considered silver as a reserve metal, unlike gold, due to its high volatility and significant storage costs. However, if central banks were to allocate even 1% of their reserves to the purchase of silver, global silver consumption could increase fivefold, acting as a powerful driver of silver price growth.
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๐ *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.
silver market deficit expected to persist, potentially driving metal prices higher โ BofA report*
#opinion for many years, the world's central banks have not considered silver as a reserve metal, unlike gold, due to its high volatility and significant storage costs. However, if central banks were to allocate even 1% of their reserves to the purchase of silver, global silver consumption could increase fivefold, acting as a powerful driver of silver price growth.
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โ ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ#stocks #us #warning #macro #bubble
Crescat: the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the M2 money supply has reached the level seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
UBS: the stock market is not yet in a bubble โ but itโs getting closer, and six out of seven conditions for one have already been met.
Stifel believes the U.S. stock market is at the peak of a bubble and that it will burst in 2025 (chart)
Crescat: the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the M2 money supply has reached the level seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.
UBS: the stock market is not yet in a bubble โ but itโs getting closer, and six out of seven conditions for one have already been met.
Stifel believes the U.S. stock market is at the peak of a bubble and that it will burst in 2025 (chart)
๐บ๐ธ#monetarypolicy #us #inflation #macro
ัorrelation between Fed interest rates and changes in employment and inflation.
Presently, the Fed's monetary policy is considered highly restrictive (indicated by a red dot), suggesting that a reduction of at least 250 basis points may be necessary before monetary policy becomes neutral.
ัorrelation between Fed interest rates and changes in employment and inflation.
Presently, the Fed's monetary policy is considered highly restrictive (indicated by a red dot), suggesting that a reduction of at least 250 basis points may be necessary before monetary policy becomes neutral.
๐ช#silver #macro
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace.
This can be driven by various market factors, such as supply constraints, higher demand for physical assets, or expectations of price volatility.
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There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace.
This can be driven by various market factors, such as supply constraints, higher demand for physical assets, or expectations of price volatility.
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There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
๐ช#silver #short #etf
Bloomberg: short interest in the largest silver ETF, #SLV, is once again approaching historic highs.
The last time it was at these levels, silver prices rallied.
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BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace (chart)
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Bloomberg: short interest in the largest silver ETF, #SLV, is once again approaching historic highs.
The last time it was at these levels, silver prices rallied.
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BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace (chart)
There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
โ๏ธ๐#metals #forecast
BofA: by 2030, the world is expected to face a structural deficit in many industrial metals.
Increased dependence on critical minerals requires recycling and new capacity expansion to avoid projected structural deficits in several minerals #capex #recycling
BofA: by 2030, the world is expected to face a structural deficit in many industrial metals.
Increased dependence on critical minerals requires recycling and new capacity expansion to avoid projected structural deficits in several minerals #capex #recycling
๐ฐ๐ท#skorea #stocks #earningsseason #forecast
HSBC forecasts incredible earnings growth for South Korea's listed companies in 2025.
Corporate profits are expected to grow in all major Asian markets, but will begin to slow in the US. The situation will be worst in Europe, where corporate profits will decline. #us #europe
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HSBC forecasts incredible earnings growth for South Korea's listed companies in 2025.
Corporate profits are expected to grow in all major Asian markets, but will begin to slow in the US. The situation will be worst in Europe, where corporate profits will decline. #us #europe
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โ ๏ธ๐บ๐ธ#stocks #us #tech #bubble #macro #warning
ัomparison of "Enterprise Value as % of US GDP" for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks today and the ten largest stocks during the dotcom bubble.
"Magnificent Seven" stocks today = 62.5% of GDP
10 largest stocks during the dotcom bubble = 30% of GDP
More and moreโand more and moreโsignals are coming in that the U.S. stock market is overheated.
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ัomparison of "Enterprise Value as % of US GDP" for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks today and the ten largest stocks during the dotcom bubble.
"Magnificent Seven" stocks today = 62.5% of GDP
10 largest stocks during the dotcom bubble = 30% of GDP
More and moreโand more and moreโsignals are coming in that the U.S. stock market is overheated.
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๐ข๐ช๐บ#gas #oil #europe #oilrefining
BBG: against the backdrop of rising gas prices in Europe, the use of oil for industrial purposes is becoming more cost-effective than gas. We have already seen increased gas-to-fuel oil switching and gas-to-gasoil is next.
Europe and Asia will all lean towards consuming more oil and more coal if they in any way can do so #coal #asia
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BBG: against the backdrop of rising gas prices in Europe, the use of oil for industrial purposes is becoming more cost-effective than gas. We have already seen increased gas-to-fuel oil switching and gas-to-gasoil is next.
Europe and Asia will all lean towards consuming more oil and more coal if they in any way can do so #coal #asia
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โด๏ธ#BTC #crypto
BCA Research: ัurrently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit, which has historically signaled peaks in Bitcoin prices โ research
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BCA Research: ัurrently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit, which has historically signaled peaks in Bitcoin prices โ research
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