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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #history
Ned Davis Research: the most successful years for the S&P 500 are those that end in '5'. Since 1895, the index has only once (2015) posted a negative performance in the middle of a decade. In the other 12 out of 13 cases, it closed in positive territory, with an average return of +20.7%.
๐ŸŒŽ#commodity #history
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low

#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)

#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopoliticsโ€”military conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.

#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)
๐Ÿ“Š Scorpi18 portfolio returns (10 Jan. 2025):

- WEEK: -0%
- MONTH: -0%
- YEAR: +38%
- SINCE 2014: +676%

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๐Ÿ‘‰ *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'
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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#bonds #us #macro
US Treasuries entering 6-th year of 3-th great bond bear market of past 240 years โ€” BofA
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#vix #stocks #us #seasonality
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#debt #us #savings
US household debt is at historically low levels.
๐Ÿช™#silver #forecast
silver market deficit expected to persist, potentially driving metal prices higher โ€“ BofA report*

#opinion for many years, the world's central banks have not considered silver as a reserve metal, unlike gold, due to its high volatility and significant storage costs. However, if central banks were to allocate even 1% of their reserves to the purchase of silver, global silver consumption could increase fivefold, acting as a powerful driver of silver price growth.

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๐Ÿ‘‰ *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser' on the 'Forever' tariff plan.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#USD #fx #analogy
the dynamics of the dollar after Trump's victory: today vs. 2016.
โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #warning #macro #bubble
Crescat: the ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the M2 money supply has reached the level seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

UBS: the stock market is not yet in a bubble โ€” but itโ€™s getting closer, and six out of seven conditions for one have already been met.

Stifel believes the U.S. stock market is at the peak of a bubble and that it will burst in 2025 (chart)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#monetarypolicy #us #inflation #macro
ัorrelation between Fed interest rates and changes in employment and inflation.

Presently, the Fed's monetary policy is considered highly restrictive (indicated by a red dot), suggesting that a reduction of at least 250 basis points may be necessary before monetary policy becomes neutral.
๐Ÿช™#silver #macro
BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace.

This can be driven by various market factors, such as supply constraints, higher demand for physical assets, or expectations of price volatility.
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There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
๐Ÿช™#silver #short #etf
Bloomberg: short interest in the largest silver ETF, #SLV, is once again approaching historic highs.

The last time it was at these levels, silver prices rallied.
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BofA: traders are currently converting silver futures positions into physical silver at a record pace (chart)

There is a shortage in the silver market (chart)
โ—๏ธ๐ŸŒŽ#metals #forecast
BofA: by 2030, the world is expected to face a structural deficit in many industrial metals.

Increased dependence on critical minerals requires recycling and new capacity expansion to avoid projected structural deficits in several minerals #capex #recycling
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #strategy #history
TopDownCharts: if you invest in the S&P 500 and miss the 10 best and 10 worst days, you will still outperform the S&P 500 in terms of returns.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#gaming #us #history
Epyllion: adjusted for inflation, US prices for packaged video games are at their lowest level in history.

Epyllion CEO: the gaming industry is in a slump.
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท#skorea #stocks #earningsseason #forecast
HSBC forecasts incredible earnings growth for South Korea's listed companies in 2025.

Corporate profits are expected to grow in all major Asian markets, but will begin to slow in the US. The situation will be worst in Europe, where corporate profits will decline. #us #europe

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โš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #tech #bubble #macro #warning
ัomparison of "Enterprise Value as % of US GDP" for the "Magnificent Seven" stocks today and the ten largest stocks during the dotcom bubble.

"Magnificent Seven" stocks today = 62.5% of GDP

10 largest stocks during the dotcom bubble = 30% of GDP

More and moreโ€”and more and moreโ€”signals are coming in that the U.S. stock market is overheated.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #short
JPMorgan: investors aren't betting on a market declineโ€”short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding is at a historic low.

everyone expects only further growth of the US stock market, but trees don't grow to the sky.

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๐Ÿ›ข๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ#gas #oil #europe #oilrefining
BBG: against the backdrop of rising gas prices in Europe, the use of oil for industrial purposes is becoming more cost-effective than gas. We have already seen increased gas-to-fuel oil switching and gas-to-gasoil is next.

Europe and Asia will all lean towards consuming more oil and more coal if they in any way can do so #coal #asia

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โœด๏ธ#BTC #crypto
BCA Research: ัurrently, 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit, which has historically signaled peaks in Bitcoin prices โ€” research

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2025/06/29 08:13:19
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