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July rate cut odds rise to 22.7%

Markets are slowly pricing in higher chances of a Fed cut in July, with odds now at 22.7%.
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JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.
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JUST IN: Iran's security body to announce 'end of war' with Israel soon, while Israeli Defense Minister orders strong military response to Iran's ceasefire breach with strikes in Tehran.
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Trade Watcher
JUST IN: Iran's security body to announce 'end of war' with Israel soon, while Israeli Defense Minister orders strong military response to Iran's ceasefire breach with strikes in Tehran.
JUST IN: Israeli Defense Minister: Strikes ordered on central Tehran

The Defense Minister said he instructed the army to launch powerful strikes on targets in central Tehran in response to Iran’s ceasefire violation.
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Trade Watcher
JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.
JUST IN: Iran denies launching rockets after ceasefire

Tehran claims it did not fire any rockets at Israel following the ceasefire agreement, rejecting reports of renewed attacks.
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Germany approves €500B debt plan through 2029

Chancellor Merz’s cabinet greenlit a 2025 budget with €82B in new debt this year, rising to €126B by 2029 β€” totaling €500B.

The boost targets NATO’s 3.5% GDP defense goal, amid pressure from Trump to reach 5%.
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JUST IN: Trump says Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire
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Trump about Israel and Iran
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JUST IN: Fed's Powell states the economy remains strong despite uncertainty. Tariffs could raise prices and impact the economy. US short-term interest rate futures dip as traders anticipate lower chances of early Fed rate cuts.
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JUST IN: Fed's Hammack indicates more progress needed for 2% inflation target, notes policy is near neutral, expects Fed to hold steady for now, and sees no urgent need to cut interest rates.
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U.S. Stocks on track for an annual inflow of $360 Billion, the 3rd largest in history
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JUST IN: Fed's Powell suggests earlier rate cuts if inflation is weaker than anticipated.
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JUST IN: Fed's Powell states that rate cuts are on hold due to anticipated significant inflation growth this year.
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Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Donald Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.
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JUST IN: Blast detected in Damascus, Syria - per Reuters correspondents.
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JUST IN: Powell predicts significant tariff inflation effects from June to August. If not observed, it could lead to earlier cuts.
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JUST IN: The EU cautions that even a minimal Trump tariff could provoke retaliation.
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The S&P 500 is up 2% since this headline.

Oil is down 12%.
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Polymarket nears $200M raise at $1B+ valuation

Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly close to raising $200M, pushing its valuation beyond the $1B mark.
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session stops:

orders like to absorb price below or above session highs/lows.

in particular during the opening phase of New York session.

stops placed above or below London session trigger predictable orders to fill from the passive limit side.

example ↑
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2025/07/10 16:31:05
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