July rate cut odds rise to 22.7%

Markets are slowly pricing in higher chances of a Fed cut in July, with odds now at 22.7%.

JUST IN: Israeli military reports identifying missiles fired from Iran towards Israel.

JUST IN: Iran's security body to announce 'end of war' with Israel soon, while Israeli Defense Minister orders strong military response to Iran's ceasefire breach with strikes in Tehran.

JUST IN: Israeli Defense Minister: Strikes ordered on central Tehran

The Defense Minister said he instructed the army to launch powerful strikes on targets in central Tehran in response to Iran’s ceasefire violation.

JUST IN: Iran denies launching rockets after ceasefire

Tehran claims it did not fire any rockets at Israel following the ceasefire agreement, rejecting reports of renewed attacks.

Germany approves €500B debt plan through 2029

Chancellor Merz’s cabinet greenlit a 2025 budget with €82B in new debt this year, rising to €126B by 2029 — totaling €500B.

The boost targets NATO’s 3.5% GDP defense goal, amid pressure from Trump to reach 5%.

JUST IN: Trump says Israel and Iran both violated the ceasefire

JUST IN: Fed's Powell states the economy remains strong despite uncertainty. Tariffs could raise prices and impact the economy. US short-term interest rate futures dip as traders anticipate lower chances of early Fed rate cuts.

JUST IN: Fed's Hammack indicates more progress needed for 2% inflation target, notes policy is near neutral, expects Fed to hold steady for now, and sees no urgent need to cut interest rates.

JUST IN: Fed's Powell suggests earlier rate cuts if inflation is weaker than anticipated.

JUST IN: Fed's Powell states that rate cuts are on hold due to anticipated significant inflation growth this year.

Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Donald Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel.

JUST IN: Blast detected in Damascus, Syria - per Reuters correspondents.

JUST IN: Powell predicts significant tariff inflation effects from June to August. If not observed, it could lead to earlier cuts.

JUST IN: The EU cautions that even a minimal Trump tariff could provoke retaliation.

Polymarket nears $200M raise at $1B+ valuation

Prediction market platform Polymarket is reportedly close to raising $200M, pushing its valuation beyond the $1B mark.

session stops:

orders like to absorb price below or above session highs/lows.

in particular during the opening phase of New York session.

stops placed above or below London session trigger predictable orders to fill from the passive limit side.

example ↑