Spencer Li (Synapse Trading)
Want to learn how to create a second source of income with 15 minutes a day? Join me in the next live trading workshop, where I share the trading skills & strategies I used to become a self-made millionaire in my 20s, which allowed me to travel to 70+ countries…
Just a reminder this is happening next Wednesday (11 Sept), if you are looking to get started in trading and investing, and want to learn how to generate active and passive income from the financial markets, this live trading session is a great way to see how it is done!
Click here to register: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=24088
Click here to register: https://synapsetrading.com/?p=24088
Synapse Trading
Trading Foundation Workshop 2.0 - New Content Added!
Do you think the stock market will go up or down (in the next 3 months) now that rate cuts have started?
Anonymous Poll
56%
Keep going up up up 📈
21%
We have reached the top, going down from here 📉
23%
Drift sideways with no clear direction 🤷
Forwarded from Spencer Li
Summary:
- Last week, the most significant news is the much-anticipated U.S. rate cut, which has finally occurred.
- As expected, assets such as bonds, gold, silver, and even the U.S. dollar moved accordingly, and stock markets have been bullish with many hitting new highs.
- The main concern now is the risk of recession, as the focus shifts from inflation to job data, manufacturing, and GDP performance.
- A recession combined with persistent inflation could present a significant economic challenge.
ETFs Year-to-Date Performance:
SPY (S&P 500): Up nearly 20% year-to-date.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): Also up around 20%.
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Up 12%.
Forex:
U.S. Dollar: The USD has weakened as expected following the rate cut. The USDSGD dropped another 0.56% recently and is now testing major support levels. The next significant support level is around 1.21. Exposure to U.S. stocks means exposure to the USD, making it important to hedge against this weakness with assets such as gold or bonds.
Crypto
Bitcoin: Up 20% recently, but signs of weakening are emerging with small, indecisive candles forming. This is not a bullish sign, so caution is advised.
Ethereum: Slightly stronger than Bitcoin, up more than 20%. Ethereum reclaimed key moving averages, and there is potential for another 30% gain if it tests the top of its range. A small position might be considered here.
Stock Market
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Hitting all-time highs but slightly overbought on the RSI. A short test of the 20 EMA is expected before continuing the uptrend.
SPY (S&P 500): Similar to DIA, hovering around support levels and building strength to continue higher.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): The weakest of the major indices, as it has not broken its previous highs. Small bars suggest a lack of conviction, and tech stocks are particularly vulnerable to recession risks.
IWM (Russell 2000): Forming a bull flag, and if it breaks out, another leg up is possible.
Other Sectors: Cybersecurity (CIB) is making new all-time highs, while semiconductors (SMH) are weaker but still above key moving averages. Defense stocks (PPA) and software stocks (IGV) are also at new all-time highs.
China: The Chinese market recently moved up 20% but remains within its range. Overbought conditions on the RSI suggest waiting for a pullback before entering.
India (FLIN): Continues making steady gains and new all-time highs.
Bonds:
TLT (Long-Term Bonds): Despite the rate cut, TLT experienced a correction. This might present a good buying opportunity, as the long-term trend remains bullish with more rate cuts expected in the future.
Commodities:
Gold: Continues making new highs, though it's in overbought territory. If you're already holding, consider taking some profits, but the long-term trend remains bullish.
Silver: Similar to gold, still in a strong uptrend but overbought.
Metals and Mining ETF (PICK): Up 15% since its lows, but now in overbought territory. A pullback might present a better buying opportunity.
General Commodities ETF (DBC): Up 8%, showing strength, which could indicate rising inflation expectations.
Agriculture ETF (DBA): Up 15% and recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, making it a good sector to watch for future gains.
Uranium ETF: After a long period of sideways movement, uranium has risen 25% in the last month. This may indicate a return of the long-term bullish trend.
Real Estate:
REITs (REET): Up nearly 40% from its lows, with new all-time highs in sight. With rates being cut, REITs remain bullish, although a small correction may occur due to overbought conditions.
- Last week, the most significant news is the much-anticipated U.S. rate cut, which has finally occurred.
- As expected, assets such as bonds, gold, silver, and even the U.S. dollar moved accordingly, and stock markets have been bullish with many hitting new highs.
- The main concern now is the risk of recession, as the focus shifts from inflation to job data, manufacturing, and GDP performance.
- A recession combined with persistent inflation could present a significant economic challenge.
ETFs Year-to-Date Performance:
SPY (S&P 500): Up nearly 20% year-to-date.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): Also up around 20%.
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Up 12%.
Forex:
U.S. Dollar: The USD has weakened as expected following the rate cut. The USDSGD dropped another 0.56% recently and is now testing major support levels. The next significant support level is around 1.21. Exposure to U.S. stocks means exposure to the USD, making it important to hedge against this weakness with assets such as gold or bonds.
Crypto
Bitcoin: Up 20% recently, but signs of weakening are emerging with small, indecisive candles forming. This is not a bullish sign, so caution is advised.
Ethereum: Slightly stronger than Bitcoin, up more than 20%. Ethereum reclaimed key moving averages, and there is potential for another 30% gain if it tests the top of its range. A small position might be considered here.
Stock Market
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): Hitting all-time highs but slightly overbought on the RSI. A short test of the 20 EMA is expected before continuing the uptrend.
SPY (S&P 500): Similar to DIA, hovering around support levels and building strength to continue higher.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): The weakest of the major indices, as it has not broken its previous highs. Small bars suggest a lack of conviction, and tech stocks are particularly vulnerable to recession risks.
IWM (Russell 2000): Forming a bull flag, and if it breaks out, another leg up is possible.
Other Sectors: Cybersecurity (CIB) is making new all-time highs, while semiconductors (SMH) are weaker but still above key moving averages. Defense stocks (PPA) and software stocks (IGV) are also at new all-time highs.
China: The Chinese market recently moved up 20% but remains within its range. Overbought conditions on the RSI suggest waiting for a pullback before entering.
India (FLIN): Continues making steady gains and new all-time highs.
Bonds:
TLT (Long-Term Bonds): Despite the rate cut, TLT experienced a correction. This might present a good buying opportunity, as the long-term trend remains bullish with more rate cuts expected in the future.
Commodities:
Gold: Continues making new highs, though it's in overbought territory. If you're already holding, consider taking some profits, but the long-term trend remains bullish.
Silver: Similar to gold, still in a strong uptrend but overbought.
Metals and Mining ETF (PICK): Up 15% since its lows, but now in overbought territory. A pullback might present a better buying opportunity.
General Commodities ETF (DBC): Up 8%, showing strength, which could indicate rising inflation expectations.
Agriculture ETF (DBA): Up 15% and recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, making it a good sector to watch for future gains.
Uranium ETF: After a long period of sideways movement, uranium has risen 25% in the last month. This may indicate a return of the long-term bullish trend.
Real Estate:
REITs (REET): Up nearly 40% from its lows, with new all-time highs in sight. With rates being cut, REITs remain bullish, although a small correction may occur due to overbought conditions.
Forwarded from Spencer Li
Summary:
- Last week, we conducted a two-day training session for the Trading Mastery Program, welcoming new members to the community. We invite all past students to come join us for upcoming quarterly sessions.
- In this week's outlook, we continue to monitor key global events, particularly China’s economic stimulus efforts and the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report.
- The focus on jobs data is crucial, as it will help determine whether the U.S. faces recession risks.
- The performance of big tech companies in the S&P 500 is mixed, with semiconductors and tech stocks weighing down the market.
Forex:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar index is nearing a major support level on the weekly chart. After several weeks of decline, it remains below the 200-day EMA and in oversold territory. A potential rebound is likely before determining whether it continues up or breaks down further.
USDSGD: The pair has seen around 10 consecutive weeks of decline and has broken prior support levels. A minor rebound of 1-2% could occur before testing the resistance-turned-support area. This could present either a short-term trade or a shorting opportunity.
USDJPY: The dollar is in rebound mode against the Yen, though the long-term trend remains bearish.
Crypto:
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined trend channel and is now retreating from the top of the channel. A short position targeting the bottom of the channel offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.5x, making it an attractive trade.
Ethereum: Ethereum's price action is more challenging to read. It is near the bottom of its range, and there are no clear short-term signals, leading to a recommendation to stay out for now.
Stock Market:
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The DIA remains strong and is likely to experience a pullback to test its support level at the 20 EMA before resuming its uptrend.
SPY (S&P 500): Similar to the DIA, the S&P 500 is expected to pull back slightly before resuming its uptrend. Oscillators indicate that the market is overheated, but the long-term trend remains bullish.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): QQQ has shown some signs of weakness after a large rally, failing to break its previous high. This makes it vulnerable to further downside, which is why I’ve taken a small short position on the QQQ and semiconductors as a hedge against my long positions.
SMH (Semiconductor ETF): Similar to QQQ, semiconductors have shown signs of overextension, making them a potential shorting opportunity.
PPA (Defense Stocks ETF): PPA remains strong, benefitting from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A gap up occurred this week, and although I already hold a position, new investors might wait for a pullback before entering.
China Market: China has shown strong moves recently, driven by government stimulus measures. However, the market is overbought, so waiting for a pullback before entering is advised.
FLIN (India Market): India’s market continues to perform well, and I’ve set a more ambitious target price with a trailing stop loss to capture a larger move.
Bonds:
TLT (Long-Term Bonds): TLT is a long-term trade, and despite short-term corrections, the outlook remains bullish as we expect further rate cuts. I’ve set a larger stop loss and a target for around 17-18% upside.
Commodities:
Gold: Targeting a long-term price level of $2,995, maintaining a bullish outlook.
Silver: Similar to gold, my target for silver is around $37 on the ETF (SLV), making it another long-term play.
Metals and Mining Index (PIC): This index has risen 15% recently, but a pullback is needed before considering an entry.
Agriculture ETF (DBA): I closed my position here after the price failed to hold above resistance. The movement suggests more of a bounce rather than a sustained trend.
Uranium ETF (URA): Uranium has been bullish, potentially due to geopolitical developments. I’m waiting for a pullback before entering, as it appears to be forming a bullish consolidation pattern.
- Last week, we conducted a two-day training session for the Trading Mastery Program, welcoming new members to the community. We invite all past students to come join us for upcoming quarterly sessions.
- In this week's outlook, we continue to monitor key global events, particularly China’s economic stimulus efforts and the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report.
- The focus on jobs data is crucial, as it will help determine whether the U.S. faces recession risks.
- The performance of big tech companies in the S&P 500 is mixed, with semiconductors and tech stocks weighing down the market.
Forex:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar index is nearing a major support level on the weekly chart. After several weeks of decline, it remains below the 200-day EMA and in oversold territory. A potential rebound is likely before determining whether it continues up or breaks down further.
USDSGD: The pair has seen around 10 consecutive weeks of decline and has broken prior support levels. A minor rebound of 1-2% could occur before testing the resistance-turned-support area. This could present either a short-term trade or a shorting opportunity.
USDJPY: The dollar is in rebound mode against the Yen, though the long-term trend remains bearish.
Crypto:
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined trend channel and is now retreating from the top of the channel. A short position targeting the bottom of the channel offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.5x, making it an attractive trade.
Ethereum: Ethereum's price action is more challenging to read. It is near the bottom of its range, and there are no clear short-term signals, leading to a recommendation to stay out for now.
Stock Market:
DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The DIA remains strong and is likely to experience a pullback to test its support level at the 20 EMA before resuming its uptrend.
SPY (S&P 500): Similar to the DIA, the S&P 500 is expected to pull back slightly before resuming its uptrend. Oscillators indicate that the market is overheated, but the long-term trend remains bullish.
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): QQQ has shown some signs of weakness after a large rally, failing to break its previous high. This makes it vulnerable to further downside, which is why I’ve taken a small short position on the QQQ and semiconductors as a hedge against my long positions.
SMH (Semiconductor ETF): Similar to QQQ, semiconductors have shown signs of overextension, making them a potential shorting opportunity.
PPA (Defense Stocks ETF): PPA remains strong, benefitting from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A gap up occurred this week, and although I already hold a position, new investors might wait for a pullback before entering.
China Market: China has shown strong moves recently, driven by government stimulus measures. However, the market is overbought, so waiting for a pullback before entering is advised.
FLIN (India Market): India’s market continues to perform well, and I’ve set a more ambitious target price with a trailing stop loss to capture a larger move.
Bonds:
TLT (Long-Term Bonds): TLT is a long-term trade, and despite short-term corrections, the outlook remains bullish as we expect further rate cuts. I’ve set a larger stop loss and a target for around 17-18% upside.
Commodities:
Gold: Targeting a long-term price level of $2,995, maintaining a bullish outlook.
Silver: Similar to gold, my target for silver is around $37 on the ETF (SLV), making it another long-term play.
Metals and Mining Index (PIC): This index has risen 15% recently, but a pullback is needed before considering an entry.
Agriculture ETF (DBA): I closed my position here after the price failed to hold above resistance. The movement suggests more of a bounce rather than a sustained trend.
Uranium ETF (URA): Uranium has been bullish, potentially due to geopolitical developments. I’m waiting for a pullback before entering, as it appears to be forming a bullish consolidation pattern.
Forwarded from Spencer Li
Real Estate:
REET (Real Estate ETF): I closed my position after a 15% gain, as the trend appears overbought. I’ll wait for a 5% pullback before considering another long entry.
REET (Real Estate ETF): I closed my position after a 15% gain, as the trend appears overbought. I’ll wait for a 5% pullback before considering another long entry.
Our next Skillsfuture class is on 26 & 27 October 2024, and we have the last few seats left:
🔥 https://synapsetrading.com/?p=33911
To date, over 500 people have used their SkillsFuture credits to attend our "Beginner’s Course on Trading & Investing".
Here is what you will receive:
💰 Comprehensive 9-hours of online training by trainer with 15+ years experience.
💰 SkillsFuture Credit-Eligible Course - Comes with certificate after completion!
💰 Blueprint and practical strategies to start building your wealth immediately.
Here is some feedback from our past students:
👍🏻 “Love the different investment portfolio strategies taught to build passive income so that I can achieve FIRE and retire early.”
👍🏻 “Learnt how to analyse charts using technical analysis to find good trading opportunities, especially the hands-on sessions.”
👍🏻 “Great lifetime course support in the chatgroup with Spencer and past graduates!”
Slots are limited, so register ASAP to avoid disappointment!
🔥 https://synapsetrading.com/?p=33911
To date, over 500 people have used their SkillsFuture credits to attend our "Beginner’s Course on Trading & Investing".
Here is what you will receive:
💰 Comprehensive 9-hours of online training by trainer with 15+ years experience.
💰 SkillsFuture Credit-Eligible Course - Comes with certificate after completion!
💰 Blueprint and practical strategies to start building your wealth immediately.
Here is some feedback from our past students:
👍🏻 “Love the different investment portfolio strategies taught to build passive income so that I can achieve FIRE and retire early.”
👍🏻 “Learnt how to analyse charts using technical analysis to find good trading opportunities, especially the hands-on sessions.”
👍🏻 “Great lifetime course support in the chatgroup with Spencer and past graduates!”
Slots are limited, so register ASAP to avoid disappointment!
Did my first AMA (ask me anything) session last weekend, and started answering some of them. Will be doing this weekly going forward, so do check it out if you have any burning questions for me! 😀
https://www.instagram.com/stories/iamrecneps/3478583193300346445
https://www.instagram.com/stories/iamrecneps/3478583193300346445