After the GDP data was released, pessimism appeared about interest rates cuts. This will likely increase pressure on btc and there's a high probability that we will test the 61000 level ones more…

FED SWAPS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN RATE CUT BEFORE DECEMBER

US GDP +1.6% RATE IN 1Q; CONSENSUS +2.4%

U.S PCE PRICES (Q1) ACTUAL: 3.4% VS 1.8% PREVIOUS

U.S GDP PRICE INDEX (QOQ) (Q1) ACTUAL: 3.1% VS 1.7% PREVIOUS; EST 3.0%

U.S CORE PCE PRICES (Q1) ACTUAL: 3.70% VS 2.00% PREVIOUS; EST 3.40%

≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡
Join my TRADING CHANNELS

Optimism was high just before the ETF launch in Hong Kong, and prices climbed a bit, but they ended up going back down since the first trading day didn't live up to expectations. The volume was just $11 million 😅. That's how the hype slowly starts to dissipate... Now it's interesting to watch the 60 level, but something tells me that it won't hold up either.

I liked a brief article by Chris Dixon for the FT. It really makes you think about where the crypto industry is heading. To summarize, big projects face investors' fears of investing in technologically advanced and promising projects due to concerns about them being recognized as securities by the SEC, while meme coins are patched up in a couple of hours, sometimes even automatically. All the action, even during Bitcoin's bullish phases, has shifted there, while the technological and promising projects are stuck in place. If they don’t address these regulatory issues, the industry could really turn into a complete mess.

https://www.ft.com/content/1ceaa1c6-47df-4430-950e-ffcbf1cc8f7b

CZ SENTENCED TO 4 MONTHS IN PRISON

Today's ADP data hinted that we should expect strong NFP figures again on Friday, which seems to be quickly heating up pessimism. The rate decision is in 1 hour 30 minutes and Powell's press conference is in 2 hours. Since there's no sign of positivity on the horizon, there's a chance we could drop a bit lower during this time. Be careful with rebounds ahead of today's events, they can often be misleading...

≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡
Join my TRADING CHANNELS

It's not exactly dovish, but for several reasons, the markets have started to price in the first rate cut in September. This is optimism for now, but I'm skeptical about it, it can dissipate very quickly. Let's say they've found a reason to probe the bears' stop-losses. Bears, be careful, now they've decided to come after you... Now the likelihood of going back above 60 is high.

TRADERS PRICE IN SEPTEMBER AS LIKELY TIMING FOR FIRST FED RATE CUT

I still don't understand how they could add a first rate cut in September after such a speech. I'm literally waiting for the message that they've reconsidered and pushed it back to November... 😅

POWELL: WE DO NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO CUT RATES UNTIL HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ON INFLATION MOVING TOWARD 2%

POWELL: SO FAR THIS YEAR INFLATION READINGS HAVE NOT GIVEN US THAT GREATER CONFIDENCE

POWELL: LIKELY THAT GAINING GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL TAKE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED

How can this be seen as positive? Wall Street might be drunk today…

That's it, according to FedWatch data, the majority now expects that there will be no cuts in September and the first rate cut is anticipated in November. The bears are winning. I don't know what folly prompted the revision, but now we're back to the original pessimistic position 😅

Good nfp released for crypto. Up

After NFP release market bets on 2 rate cuts this year

US RATE FUTURES NOW PRICE IN TWO CUTS OF 25 BPS IN 2024 VS ONE BEFORE JOBS DATA

We had a decent rally after the labor market data came out, but over the weekend several altcoins took a hit. MANA, ALGO, MATIC, NEAR, UNI, XTZ, XLM and SOL all suffered because of a new lawsuit filed against Coinbase. The lawsuit claims these coins are securities that plaintiffs invested in based on allegedly misleading statements by the crypto exchange. So, several alts had to dip because of this. With such fundamentals, it looks like we're going to be waiting a while for an alt season...

Now Robinhood received a Wells notice from the SEC. I liked how the lawyers put it, saying it looks like the SEC is carpet bombing the crypto market. True, the market doesn't react as negatively to such news anymore, but we shouldn't underestimate its impact. It will definitely hold back the alts. Given the pace things are picking up, I think we'll see a few more big news stories like this. On one hand, it's a hit to the alts, but on the other, it supports BTC dominance. Even though the whole market gets shaken up, I think btc dominance will continue to rise, potentially reaching around 56-65%. By the way, just recently, in January 2021, the dominance was at 70%, and it could easily happen again with the way things are unfolding...

≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡
Join my TRADING CHANNELS

Today is a very important day for all markets. In 1 hour and 10 minutes, the PPI data will be released. Usually, CPI data comes out before PPI, but this week there's a little exception. This is significant because we usually see the main movement from the CPI data, as it's released first and because CPI correlates with PPI, we typically don’t see much movement when the PPI is released. But since PPI is coming out first this time, expect the market reaction to be similar to what happens when CPI data is released. Basically, you've got the gist, there's going to be a storm in an hour. I'm not feeling optimistic and think we might see even 59000 today. But it all depends on the data. We could also shoot up sharply if there are surprises. Let’s see

≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡
Join my TRADING CHANNELS

Bearish data. 0.5%. Expectation was 0.3%. 😱

Since the data for the year matches expectations, the market isn't really perceiving this as bearish. Therefore, everything will now depend on the CPI data. It means the data is neither bullish nor bearish, the market just sees it as meeting expectations, so we're back to square one. Nevertheless, bearish sentiments will dominate for some time.

Since the PPI correlates with the CPI, we might not see any surprises today. If the data is roughly like yesterday's, there might even be a reason for a slight rally. But consider this, lately Powell has often been asked about the possibility of a rate hike, and yesterday he responded like this:

POWELL: DON'T THINK IT'S LIKELY THAT THE NEXT MOVE WOULD BE A RATE HIKE

At the same time, according to fedwatch, the market has priced in two rate cuts in September and December. This brings up an interesting dilemma: if the economic outlook is so positive, why are there inquiries about a rate hike rather than discussions about possibly foregoing rate cuts this year, especially with 3.5 months until the first anticipated cut? This concern is why the market is apprehensive about reevaluating the September rate cut. CPI is today at 12:30 GMT, let's wait and see

Bullish CPI, UP ⬆️

It will be reviewed a little later, but now it doesn’t matter, just up we go 😅⬆️

TRADERS FIRM UP BETS ON FED RATE CUTS IN SEPT AND DEC AFTER CPI DATA

The market made a decent jump, nearly 5% already since the data release. It's right at the resistance level now. If it has enough strength to break through, the next stop will be at 67000.

≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡≈≡
Join my TRADING CHANNELS