🗓 Key Events This Week

Earnings and inflation take center stage as investors position ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. Several high-profile reports from mega-caps and key macro prints will guide sentiment across risk assets.

Tuesday

• Netflix $NFLX earnings — first of the major tech results, focus on subscriber growth, ad-tier traction, and guidance for Q4. A strong print could lift streaming and tech sentiment.

Wednesday

• Tesla $TSLA earnings — market focus on margins, deliveries, and AI/robotaxi updates. High expectations after weak auto data last quarter.
• IBM $IBM earnings — a bellwether for enterprise IT and AI spending. Insights into corporate demand and cloud trends will set tone for the sector.

Thursday

• Intel $INTC earnings — important for semiconductor sentiment after recent volatility in chip names. Watch for gross margin and foundry roadmap updates.
• US Existing Home Sales (September) — key gauge of housing activity. Expected slowdown could confirm cooling demand under higher rates.

Friday

• US CPI Inflation (September) — the main macro event of the week. Headline expected to stay firm while core cools slightly. A surprise uptick could push yields higher and weigh on risk.
• S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI (October) — early look at business activity. Weak prints would signal further demand slowdown.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October) — updates on inflation expectations and household outlook.

Roughly 10% of the S&P 500 reports this week, led by tech and early cyclicals. Macro direction will hinge on Friday’s CPI, a softer read could ease yields and support risk, while strong inflation may trigger pre-FOMC repositioning into the dollar and bonds.

💬 Ray Dalio on Gold

Ray Dalio doesn’t see gold as a shiny metal or a speculative trade. He sees it as money in its purest and most fundamental form.

🟡 In his view, most investors make a basic mistake. They think of fiat currencies as money and gold as a commodity. In reality, fiat is debt that depends on governments keeping their promises, while gold is a form of money that settles transactions without creating new obligations. It has intrinsic value, it cannot be printed, and it does not depend on any institution’s credibility.

🟡 Dalio argues that throughout history, every major currency has been devalued or disappeared altogether, while gold has remained a stable store of value. It is the one form of money that survives political cycles, defaults, and wars. When governments print money to prevent debt crises, the real value of fiat declines, and the demand for non-fiat money, like gold, rises.

🟡 He also believes that gold has begun to replace US Treasuries as the world’s true risk-free asset. Central banks and institutional investors are quietly reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated debt and increasing their gold holdings. In long-term perspective, this shift marks a return to something more stable and independent of government credit.

🟡 For Dalio, gold belongs in every serious portfolio, not as a short-term trade but as strategic protection. He suggests that around ten to fifteen percent of one’s portfolio should be allocated to gold as a way to balance risks from inflation, debt bubbles, and loss of confidence in fiat systems.

🟡 As Dalio puts it, gold behaves like cash in preserving purchasing power, but unlike cash, it cannot be printed or devalued. That makes it one of the few assets that can protect wealth when trust in everything else begins to break down.

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❕ Hedge funds are sitting on $1.85T in hidden Treasuries

The Fed just discovered that hedge funds in the Cayman Islands hold roughly $1.85 trillion worth of U.S. Treasuries — over four times more than official data suggested.

🟡 The gap comes from the basis trade, where funds buy Treasuries and short futures to profit from tiny price gaps.

🟡 They borrow heavily via the repo market, using those Treasuries as collateral.

🟡 As bonds get rehypothecated (reused multiple times), tracking true ownership becomes nearly impossible.

This hidden leverage means the Treasury market might be far riskier than it looks. If these trades unwind at once, liquidity could vanish and the Fed would be flying blind into the next shock.

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