⚾️ Under 8.5 Runs in Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros

📝 Pick Preview:
Lance McCullers has really found his form post-injury, posting a 2.74 xFIP and racking up 29 Ks over his last four turns. Across the diamond, rookie Shane Smith owns a 4.03 SIERA and a sub-35% fly-ball rate, keeping the long ball to just 0.58 per nine. Neither offense scares you—Chicago ranks dead last in wOBA vs. righties, and Houston sits only 24th—and both bullpens are lined with arms that limit big innings. I’m banking on two quality starters and shaky lineups to keep the scoreboard muted. Expect the pitching to dictate the pace and this game to stay under the total.

💶 Stake 1

⚾️ Giants F5 in Giants vs. Rockies

📝 Pick Preview:
Robbie Ray’s early-inning stuff has been downright unfair all season—he’s routinely mowing down batters through the first four frames with swing-and-miss offspeed and a heavy sinker that keeps the ball on the ground. On the other side, Kyle Freeland has looked especially vulnerable in the opener of his home stands, leaving too many pitches over the plate and getting tagged before the fifth inning even rolls around. Colorado’s offense has struggled to get anything going early at Coors—failing to push across more than two runs in the first five in most of their recent games—and the thin air only really awakens after the sun comes down. Even if Ray only goes four or five, the Giants’ bullpen is one of the best at shutting the door early, making this a true “earn it before the Rockies wake up” scenario.

💶 Stake 1

⚾️ Under 8.5 Runs in Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

📝 Pick Preview:
The O’s erupted for a 10-spot yesterday, but tonight they run into reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.16 ERA, 0.82 WHIP), whose changeup owns the highest whiff rate in baseball. Baltimore’s projected first-five team total is just 1.5 — books are shading that way for a reason. Dean Kremer isn’t elite, yet his 32% called-strike-plus-whiff rate at Camden Yards keeps the ball in the yard, and Detroit’s offense has mustered three runs or fewer in seven of its last nine. Both high-leverage bullpens are rested after Wednesday’s blowout was decided early, so we shouldn’t see the back-end gas cans here. With a cool evening forecast and the total still parked at 8.5, we’ll fade the recency bias and ride the under.

💶 Stake 1