⚾️ Under 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants

📝 Pick Preview:
Logan Webb vs. Ryan Pepiot at Oracle Park is basically the recipe you want for an Under—two above-average starters in one of MLB’s stingiest run environments. Webb comes in with a 3.34 ERA and the kind of ground-ball profile that plays perfectly in this yard, while Pepiot (3.86 ERA) has the swing-and-miss to bail himself out of traffic. The total is widely hanging 7.5, and the weather looks classic San Francisco: cool, damp, and a light breeze—conditions that deaden carry. The Giants’ bats are ice-cold right now (they’ve been bottom-tier with RISP for weeks), and they scored just one run in yesterday’s 2–1 loss—so we’re not exactly fading a hot lineup. Oracle Park consistently suppresses homers and run scoring relative to league average, which is a quiet boost to Unders even when contact is decent. Webb should work deep and keep the ball on the ground; Pepiot’s fastball/split combo can neutralize lefties and limit big innings. With two starters who can miss bats and a park that turns warning-track shots into outs, we don’t need much help from the bullpens to get under this small number.

💶 Stake 1

Every run scored after the fifth

⚾️ Padres F5 -0.5 in San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

📝 Pick Preview:
Nick Pivetta vs. Kai-Wei Teng is a matchup I want to attack early. Pivetta’s four-seam/slider combo is dialed in, he’s getting ahead in counts, and he keeps traffic off the bases. First time through the order he’s been efficient and stingy, exactly what you want in a five-inning bet. Teng’s fastball/splitter/sweeper mix looks good on paper, but the command wobbles and he leaks heaters when he’s behind. From the stretch he can rush, which turns into walks and elevated pitch counts in the first two frames. Petco suppresses carry, which helps Pivetta’s fly-ball profile more than Teng’s mistake fastball. The Padres’ top third is patient and will force Teng into the zone where damage comes. F5 isolates the starter edge and avoids bullpen noise. Give me Pivetta over Teng to have San Diego in front by the middle of the fifth.

💶 Stake 1

⚾️ Over 8.0 Runs in Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

📝 Pick Preview:
This matchup just screams over. The focus here is squarely on the starting pitchers, who are both in vulnerable spots. Boston is sending out Lucas Giolito, who is the definition of a regression candidate. While his 3.63 ERA looks decent on the surface, his advanced stats tell a different story, with an expected ERA of 5.27 that suggests he's been getting very lucky. He's also prone to giving up hard contact, which is bad news against a Yankees lineup that has a powerful.776 OPS against right-handed pitchers. On the other side, Luis Gil takes the mound for the Yankees with a high 5.14 ERA and some serious control issues. The Red Sox offense is more than capable of taking advantage of his mistakes.

💶 Stake 1