🏈 Houston -4.5 in Colorado @ Houston

📝 Pick Preview: This line is a prime example of the "Coach Prime Tax." A team with a top-five defense in key advanced metrics like Houston is only laying 4.5 points at home against a team with a backup quarterback and an offense ranked second-to-last in the Big 12. Houston's defense allows just 78.0 passing yards per game, a nightmare matchup for Colorado's third-string QB Ryan Staub. Furthermore, Houston coach Willie Fritz has a documented history of making a significant leap in his second year at a program, and his 2-0 start is evidence of that trend continuing. The public's fascination with Deion Sanders keeps this line artificially low, creating outstanding value on a superior Houston team in a perfect situational spot.  
💶 Stake 1

🏈 James Conner Over 68.5 Rushing Yards in Panthers @ Cardinals

📝 Pick preview: This is the most logical and statistically supported player prop on the board. James Conner is the lead back in an offense built to run the football, and he's facing a defense that is historically inept at stopping it. The Panthers ranked 32nd against the run in 2024, allowing a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry, and just gave up 200 rushing yards to the Jaguars. In his last game against Carolina, Conner forced six missed tackles in the first half alone. With Arizona favored by nearly a touchdown, the game script points to a run-heavy approach, especially in the second half as they look to protect a lead. Conner should see 15+ carries and cruise past this number against a defense that offers little to no resistance.

💶 Stake 1