Trade Watcher
UK Bond Yields Surge as Fiscal Concerns Hammer the Pound
The British pound dropped over 1 cent in an hour as markets react to a sharp selloff in UK bonds.
• 30-year gilt yields spiked +21 bps to 5.44%
• 10-year yields rose +20 bps, 2-year +9.6 bps
Rumors swirl around Chancellor Rachel Reeves after her emotional U-turn on welfare cuts. Investors are rattled by signs the UK government may be pulling back from fiscal discipline.
The British pound dropped over 1 cent in an hour as markets react to a sharp selloff in UK bonds.
• 30-year gilt yields spiked +21 bps to 5.44%
• 10-year yields rose +20 bps, 2-year +9.6 bps
Rumors swirl around Chancellor Rachel Reeves after her emotional U-turn on welfare cuts. Investors are rattled by signs the UK government may be pulling back from fiscal discipline.
Trade Watcher
Linda Raschke’s 12 Timeless Trading Rules (Condensed)
Market Wizard Linda Raschke distilled decades of experience into these core principles:
1. Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell first rally after a new low.
2. Morning reversals are stronger than afternoon ones.
3. Big gaps often lead to trends.
4. Watch how price acts around previous day’s high/low — key pivot zones.
5. First and last trading hours reveal the day’s strength.
6. High volume into close = likely continuation next day.
7. First hour’s range sets the tone — trade early if trend is clear.
8. Four timeless principles:
• Trends are more likely to continue than reverse
• Momentum leads price
• Trends end with climaxes
• Markets alternate between range and breakout
9. Nobody knows the future — trade what is, not what might be.
Reactive > Predictive.
Market Wizard Linda Raschke distilled decades of experience into these core principles:
1. Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell first rally after a new low.
2. Morning reversals are stronger than afternoon ones.
3. Big gaps often lead to trends.
4. Watch how price acts around previous day’s high/low — key pivot zones.
5. First and last trading hours reveal the day’s strength.
6. High volume into close = likely continuation next day.
7. First hour’s range sets the tone — trade early if trend is clear.
8. Four timeless principles:
• Trends are more likely to continue than reverse
• Momentum leads price
• Trends end with climaxes
• Markets alternate between range and breakout
9. Nobody knows the future — trade what is, not what might be.
Reactive > Predictive.
Trade Watcher
Samurai Bonds Are Back in Demand
U.S. companies are increasingly issuing yen-denominated Samurai bonds to tap into Japan’s cheaper capital.
Why?
– High U.S. rates make domestic borrowing expensive
– Tight JPY-USD cross-currency basis lowers the cost of converting yen to dollars
– Samurai bonds let firms borrow more cheaply and diversify investors
With favorable funding conditions in Japan, expect more U.S. corporates to follow this route.
U.S. companies are increasingly issuing yen-denominated Samurai bonds to tap into Japan’s cheaper capital.
Why?
– High U.S. rates make domestic borrowing expensive
– Tight JPY-USD cross-currency basis lowers the cost of converting yen to dollars
– Samurai bonds let firms borrow more cheaply and diversify investors
With favorable funding conditions in Japan, expect more U.S. corporates to follow this route.
Trade Watcher
US Housing Is the Least Affordable in 35 Years
Affording a home has never been tougher:
– Median earners now spend nearly 40% of their income on mortgage, taxes, and insurance
– The historical average? Just 29%
– In the 2008 crash, it dipped to 22%
For housing to rebound:
→ Home prices need to fall ~15%
→ Mortgage rates need to drop ~1.5%
Until then, the market stays frozen.
Affording a home has never been tougher:
– Median earners now spend nearly 40% of their income on mortgage, taxes, and insurance
– The historical average? Just 29%
– In the 2008 crash, it dipped to 22%
For housing to rebound:
→ Home prices need to fall ~15%
→ Mortgage rates need to drop ~1.5%
Until then, the market stays frozen.
Trade Watcher
Orange juice futures prices have plunged to their lowest level.
After a historic peak in late 2023 — driven by drought, citrus diseases, and poor harvests in Florida and Brazil — the market is now rapidly correcting downward.
During the COVID‑19 pandemic, demand also pushed prices up, but the current drop reflects a recovery in supply and easing of shortages.
After a historic peak in late 2023 — driven by drought, citrus diseases, and poor harvests in Florida and Brazil — the market is now rapidly correcting downward.
During the COVID‑19 pandemic, demand also pushed prices up, but the current drop reflects a recovery in supply and easing of shortages.
Trade Watcher
Trade Watcher
JUST IN: President Trump announced he has finalized a trade agreement with Vietnam.
Trump’s Vietnam Tariffs Might Actually Help China
Trump’s new deal slaps a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports — harsher than the current 10%, but better than the threatened 46%. It aims to stop China from bypassing U.S. tariffs via Vietnam. But there’s a catch.
China isn’t just trans-shipping goods. It’s using origin washing — sending raw materials to Vietnam, turning them into finished products (like clothes or electronics), and exporting them as “Made in Vietnam.” That dodges China-specific tariffs entirely.
Firms like BYD already shifted production to Vietnam years ago, anticipating this exact outcome. So while Trump’s deal looks tough on paper, China’s been preparing for it — and is already playing by the new rules.
Trump’s new deal slaps a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports — harsher than the current 10%, but better than the threatened 46%. It aims to stop China from bypassing U.S. tariffs via Vietnam. But there’s a catch.
China isn’t just trans-shipping goods. It’s using origin washing — sending raw materials to Vietnam, turning them into finished products (like clothes or electronics), and exporting them as “Made in Vietnam.” That dodges China-specific tariffs entirely.
Firms like BYD already shifted production to Vietnam years ago, anticipating this exact outcome. So while Trump’s deal looks tough on paper, China’s been preparing for it — and is already playing by the new rules.
Trade Watcher
Trade Watcher
UK Bond Yields Surge as Fiscal Concerns Hammer the Pound The British pound dropped over 1 cent in an hour as markets react to a sharp selloff in UK bonds. • 30-year gilt yields spiked +21 bps to 5.44% • 10-year yields rose +20 bps, 2-year +9.6 bps Rumors…
UK markets rebounded after PM Starmer confirmed Rachel Reeves will stay Chancellor long-term.
• 10-year gilt yields fell 6 bps to 4.55%.
• 30-year gilt yields dropped 7 bps to 5.35%.
• 10-year gilt yields fell 6 bps to 4.55%.
• 30-year gilt yields dropped 7 bps to 5.35%.
Trade Watcher
Trading Journal Cheat Sheet
A trading journal is a tool for self-awareness. It helps identify psychological mistakes and improve discipline.
Why keep a journal:
• Trading is mostly psychological.
• A journal reveals recurring errors and helps fix them.
• No analysis = no progress.
What to log for each trade:
1. Entry signal and reasoning
2. Emotions at entry
3. Position size and stop-loss
4. Profit target or exit strategy
5. Emotions at exit
6. Execution mistakes and lessons learned
7. Confidence in yourself and the system
8. Stress level throughout the trade
What to track:
• Position sizing
• Risk/reward ratio
• Win rate and profit factor
• Size of winners and losers
• Best setups and time of day
Takeaway:
Journaling isn’t about perfect trades — it’s about consistent execution. Measure, analyze, improve.
A trading journal is a tool for self-awareness. It helps identify psychological mistakes and improve discipline.
Why keep a journal:
• Trading is mostly psychological.
• A journal reveals recurring errors and helps fix them.
• No analysis = no progress.
What to log for each trade:
1. Entry signal and reasoning
2. Emotions at entry
3. Position size and stop-loss
4. Profit target or exit strategy
5. Emotions at exit
6. Execution mistakes and lessons learned
7. Confidence in yourself and the system
8. Stress level throughout the trade
What to track:
• Position sizing
• Risk/reward ratio
• Win rate and profit factor
• Size of winners and losers
• Best setups and time of day
Takeaway:
Journaling isn’t about perfect trades — it’s about consistent execution. Measure, analyze, improve.
Trade Watcher
Foreign Investors Are Pulling Back From U.S. Stocks
• Overseas investors withdrew ~$5B from U.S. equity ETFs in June — the largest outflow in 3+ years.
• This comes after ~$5B in net inflows during May and ~$24B in November 2024 alone.
• The pullback happens despite the S&P 500 rallying +5% and hitting new all-time highs.
Global capital is quietly rotating away from U.S. equities.
• Overseas investors withdrew ~$5B from U.S. equity ETFs in June — the largest outflow in 3+ years.
• This comes after ~$5B in net inflows during May and ~$24B in November 2024 alone.
• The pullback happens despite the S&P 500 rallying +5% and hitting new all-time highs.
Global capital is quietly rotating away from U.S. equities.
Trade Watcher
5 Money Habits That Keep People Broke — According to Warren Buffett
1. Buying New Cars
New cars lose value fast. Buffett drove a 2006 Cadillac for nearly a decade. Reliable used cars save thousands — money better invested.
2. High-Interest Debt
Credit cards drain wealth. “If you buy things you don’t need, soon you’ll have to sell things you need.” Avoid debt, invest instead.
3. Gambling & Lotteries
Buffett calls them a “tax on people who don’t understand math.” The odds are against you. Long-term wealth comes from patience, not luck.
4. Trying to Impress Others
Buffett still lives in the same modest home. Spending for status is a financial trap. Real wealth doesn’t need to show off.
5. Eating Out Too Often
He prefers simple meals like McDonald’s. Constant dining out eats into savings. Cooking at home builds both health and financial security.
1. Buying New Cars
New cars lose value fast. Buffett drove a 2006 Cadillac for nearly a decade. Reliable used cars save thousands — money better invested.
2. High-Interest Debt
Credit cards drain wealth. “If you buy things you don’t need, soon you’ll have to sell things you need.” Avoid debt, invest instead.
3. Gambling & Lotteries
Buffett calls them a “tax on people who don’t understand math.” The odds are against you. Long-term wealth comes from patience, not luck.
4. Trying to Impress Others
Buffett still lives in the same modest home. Spending for status is a financial trap. Real wealth doesn’t need to show off.
5. Eating Out Too Often
He prefers simple meals like McDonald’s. Constant dining out eats into savings. Cooking at home builds both health and financial security.
Trade Watcher
Risk/Reward: The Core of Profitable Trading
• Risk/reward ratio shows how much you’re risking vs. potential gain. A solid setup usually offers at least 1:2 or 1:3.
• Risk = stop-loss level where trade is invalidated.
• Reward = target where price is likely to go if the trade works.
• The higher the reward vs. risk, the lower your win rate needs to be to stay profitable.
• Trailing stops help capture bigger moves, but you won’t exit at the peak.
• Be impatient with losers, and patient with winners.
• Example: Buy 100 shares at $100, stop-loss at $97, target at $109:
• Risk = $300, Reward = $900 → 1:3 ratio
• Break-even win rate = 25%
Mastering risk/reward is essential — cut losses quickly, let profits run.
• Risk/reward ratio shows how much you’re risking vs. potential gain. A solid setup usually offers at least 1:2 or 1:3.
• Risk = stop-loss level where trade is invalidated.
• Reward = target where price is likely to go if the trade works.
• The higher the reward vs. risk, the lower your win rate needs to be to stay profitable.
• Trailing stops help capture bigger moves, but you won’t exit at the peak.
• Be impatient with losers, and patient with winners.
• Example: Buy 100 shares at $100, stop-loss at $97, target at $109:
• Risk = $300, Reward = $900 → 1:3 ratio
• Break-even win rate = 25%
Mastering risk/reward is essential — cut losses quickly, let profits run.
Trade Watcher
Most Profitable Chart Patterns
1. High & Tight Bull Flag
• Price doubles (or +90%) in ≤2 months, then forms a tight pullback
• Breakout above the flag signals continuation
• Target = size of the prior move
• Best used with tight stop and trailing exit
2. Complex Head & Shoulders Top
• 4–6 peaks after an uptrend, with multiple heads or shoulders
• Breakdown below neckline confirms reversal
• Target = height from head to neckline
• Volume confirms: fades on rallies, rises on drops
Both patterns work best with solid risk/reward and clear trade management.
1. High & Tight Bull Flag
• Price doubles (or +90%) in ≤2 months, then forms a tight pullback
• Breakout above the flag signals continuation
• Target = size of the prior move
• Best used with tight stop and trailing exit
2. Complex Head & Shoulders Top
• 4–6 peaks after an uptrend, with multiple heads or shoulders
• Breakdown below neckline confirms reversal
• Target = height from head to neckline
• Volume confirms: fades on rallies, rises on drops
Both patterns work best with solid risk/reward and clear trade management.