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HEAT ATS BREAKDOWN

Letโ€™s see how NBA will work. Todays subject is Heat who are on a 5-0 ATS run. I guess because no one really believes in them anymore after they traded Butler. Theyโ€™re playing against a fully injured 76ers team today. Let me elaborate.

The ATS graph (graph 1) hit through trend line (expecting it to reverse to the mean). The stats are also suggesting they will not cover: 22-31 ATS on Saturdays (-20.7% ROI), 33-36 ATS as away favorite (-8.6% ROI).

The 2nd graph includes all worst scenarios for Heat ATS. Itโ€™s a match. Whatโ€™s also interesting is they are on a 4-0 ATS run which only happened once and never got past that mark. And the graph is above the trend line so yeah, looking for it to go down.

I think thatโ€™s enough to take 76ers spread today.

Good luck!
โค4๐Ÿ‘Ž3๐Ÿซก1
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INTEL SYSTEM 3/29 RECAP ๐Ÿ‘Ž

NHL:
Flyers / Sabres UNDER 6 (-107) โ€” risk 0.5 U โŒ
Islanders ML (+210) โ€” to win 0.5 U โŒ
Avalanche / Blues OVER 5.5 (-120) โ€” risk 0.5 U โŒ

Soccer MLS:
New England / New York UNDER 2.5 (-130) โ€” risk 0.5 U โŒ

NBA:
76ers +8.5 (-110) โ€” risk 0.5 U โŒ
Lakers / Grizzlies OVER 238.5 (-110) โ€” risk 0.5 U โœ…

Soccer MLS:
Atlanta / New York OVER 2.5 (-161) โ€” risk 0.5 U โœ…

Yesterday: -1.48 U
Month: -8.31 U
๐Ÿ‘Ž3โค2๐Ÿคฏ2๐Ÿค”1
PANTHERS O/U BREAKDOWN

Straight to the point:

The graph is below the trend line. Panthers are 14-5 to the OVER on Sunday (74% win rate, 42% ROI). Panthers are 46-24 to the OVER coming off 1 UNDER (66% win rate, 27% ROI). Panthers are 78-58 to the OVER as home favorite (57.3% win rate, 10.7% ROI)

Panthers / Canadiens OVER 5.5 (-125)
๐Ÿ‘7โค3๐Ÿ”ฅ2๐Ÿซก1
INTEL MLB SYSTEM TEST:

Orioles ML +115 โ€” risk 0.5 U
Orioles / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -120 โ€” risk 0.5 U
Braves ML +100 โ€” risk 0.5 U

TESTING THE SYSTEM FOR MLB. NOT ACTUALLY BETTING IT. In a couple weeks, Kold will also help me with the MLB system. I will be tracking his and mine approaches for the same plays and we will see which one works best.
๐Ÿ”ฅ4โค2๐Ÿ˜ข1๐Ÿซก1
Padres are off to a 3-0 start against the Braves. Won twice as underdogs and once as favorites.

Padres are 9-16 coming off 3 straight wins. (36% win rate, -35% ROI). Padres are 24-29 on Sundays (45% win rate, -21.3% ROI). Padres 77-58 as home favorites but the ROI is still -9.5% due to juiced average odds.

Will Braves (+110) avoid a sweep today?

๐Ÿ‘ โ€” Braves win
๐Ÿ‘Ž โ€” Padres win
๐Ÿ‘40๐Ÿ‘Ž13๐ŸŒญ4
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๐Ÿšจ Announcement from @realdeal666:

I tried and I failed. I am killing the Intel system.

Won't blame bad luck. It must be my fault and wrong approach. Sucks that it's been working so well for the first 2 months and everything fell apart after I thought it was worth adding to the paid section.

Kold's system is still the only sustainable system I've seen love it or hate it. Even after being down on the month he still managed to profit.

I'm still be helping Kold with everything I can, we're still partners, it's all good.

From now on I will focus on intel itself: trends, breakdowns, interesting angles. All that will be posted on the free page. Might keep the soccer system going, it's been alright.

Kold offered next month free for everyone who joined us so if you still haven't join the channel for April plays, dm me @realdeal666 or Kold @koldishot

If you have any questions or want to tell me something feel free to message me @realdeal666
โค8
It had to be done ๐Ÿซก

Kold's approach is working, no point in changing anything. My approach was most likely flawed from the beginning even though it was looking so promising.

I will focus only on Intel and helping Kold. Seems like the breakdowns are doing ok. Expect another one within 30 minutes
โค6๐Ÿ‘2
MAVERICKS O/U BREAKDOWN

* These graphs show the performance of betting the OVERs in Mavericks' games since 2021 *

Mavericks have been on a hell of a OVERs run (10-1 L11 to the OVER). Will they go on? Let's see:

Graph 1: overall, Mavs are 17-28 to the OVER on Monday (37.8% win rate, -27% ROI). Mavs are 33-42 to the OVER after last game went OVER (44% win rate, -16% ROI).

Graph 2: best scenarios for Mavs UNDERS: home / away fav + home underdog + Mon/Wed/Fri. Mondays: 12-23 (34.3% win rate, -34.5% ROI). Coming off 2 overs: 3-8 (27% win rate, -48% ROI).

Mavs are facing Nets today who are 33-42 to the OVER this season and 15-21 as away to the OVER.

My intel suggests the UNDER is a decent play today. Will it cash?

๐Ÿ‘ โ€” UNDER
๐Ÿ‘Ž โ€” OVER

Breakdowns stats:

NHL: 3-0
NBA: 0-1
MLB: 0-1
๐Ÿ‘16โค5๐Ÿ‘Ž5
EPL Midweek โšฝ๏ธ

Brighton / Aston Villa under 2.5 (-102) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ
Southampton / Crystal Palace DRAW (+320) โ€” risk 0.1 U โœ…
Chelsea / Tottenham DRAW (+360) โ€” risk 0.1 U (tomorrow) โŒ

Weekend had some nice and profitable overs/unders but none of the draws cashed
โค6๐Ÿซก2๐ŸŒญ1
Intel system: weekend soccer plays

Friday plays:

โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Genoa / Udinese UNDER 2 (-122) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ…

โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Genoa / Udinese DRAW (+200) โ€”risk 0.3 U โŒ

โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Nice / Nantes DRAW (+380) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ

I'll drop Saturday & Sunday plays in the next post
โค6๐ŸŒญ2
Big Dog Intel๐Ÿพ
Intel system: weekend soccer plays Friday plays: โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Genoa / Udinese UNDER 2 (-122) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ… โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Genoa / Udinese DRAW (+200) โ€”risk 0.3 U โŒ โšฝ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Nice / Nantes DRAW (+380) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ I'll drop Saturday & Sunday plays in the next post
Saturday:

Draws


๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace / Brighton DRAW (+240) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Real Madrid / Valencia DRAW (+500) โ€” risk 0.1 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Lyon / Lille DRAW (+260) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Atlanta / Dallas DRAW (+300) โ€” risk 0.05U โœ…

Totals

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Mainz / Kiel UNDER 3 (-112) โ€” risk 0.1 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ New York / Chicago UNDER 2.5 (-105) โ€” risk 0.1 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Atlanta / Dallas OVER 3 (-116) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Charlotte / Nashville OVER 2.5 (-128) โ€” risk 0.1 U โœ…

Add: ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Barcelona / Betis UNDER 3.5 (-120) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ…
โค5๐Ÿซก1
Big Dog Intel๐Ÿพ
Saturday: Draws ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Crystal Palace / Brighton DRAW (+240) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Real Madrid / Valencia DRAW (+500) โ€” risk 0.1 U โŒ ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Lyon / Lille DRAW (+260) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Atlanta / Dallas DRAW (+300) โ€” risk 0.05U โœ… Totals ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Mainz / Kiel UNDER 3โ€ฆ
Sunday:

Draws:
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Torino / Verona DRAW (+250) โ€” risk 0.1 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Roma / Juventus DRAW (+215) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ…
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Brentford / Chelsea DRAW (+275) โ€” risk 0.1 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Valladolid / Getafe DRAW (+220) โ€” risk 0.1 U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช St Pauli / M'gladbach DRAW (+245) โ€” risk 0.3 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Union Berlin / Wolfsburg DRAW (+235) โ€” risk 0. 2U โŒ
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Reims / Strasbourg DRAW (+250) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ

Totals:
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Fulham / Liverpool OVER 2.5 (-127) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Roma / Juventus UNDER 2.5 (-150) โ€” risk 0.3 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Reims / Strasbourg UNDER 2.5 (-115) โ€” risk 0.2 U โœ…
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช St Pauli / M'gladbach OVER 2.5 (-120) โ€” risk 0.2 U โŒ
โค5๐Ÿซก1
DODGERS -1.5 WILL FEED FAMILIES

Been hearing this ^ since the start of the season. But Dodgers -1.5 has been profitable over the past 2 seasons (including alt lines when they are underdogs too). And they are 7-4 this season.

25-7 on Mondays
55-36 coming off 1 L (30% ROI)

This includes Dodgers -1.5 no matter if they are favorites or underdogs.

Dodgers -1.5 is -110 today against the Nationals. Will they cover? ๐Ÿ‘€

๐Ÿ‘ โ€” Dodgers will cover -1.5
๐Ÿ‘Ž โ€” Nationals will cover +1.5 ๐Ÿ™„
๐Ÿ‘42๐Ÿ‘Ž17โค6๐Ÿ”ฅ2
Not necessarily today, but Dodgers -1.5 will feed families.. in the long run.
๐Ÿ‘Ž6๐ŸŒญ6โค2๐Ÿค”2
QUICK MLB SZN RECAP:

Favorites are 91-54 SU โœ…
Favorites are 19-4 SU on Fridays โœ…
Favorites in the last games of the day are 10-2 SU โœ…
โค8๐Ÿ‘4
2025/07/08 22:11:55
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