VIP RECAP : MARCH 26th

Martingale Mania (by @koldishot)

1️⃣ | 🏒 | islanders ml | -115 | TO WIN 0.45 U ❌

2️⃣ | 🏒 | stars | -140 | TO WIN 0.45 U ✅

3️⃣ | 🏒 | devils 3 way money line | -145 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ✅

4️⃣ | 🏀 | wizards +3 | -105 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ✅

5️⃣ | 🏀 | clippers -3.5 | -130 | TO WIN 0.3 UNITS ✅

6️⃣ | 🏀 | CELTICS -5.5 | -125 | TO WIN 0.1 UNITS ✅

7️⃣ | 🏀 | raptors +1.5 | +100 | TO RISK 0.05 UNITS ✅

8️⃣ | 🏀 | nuggets -11 | -105 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ❌

9️⃣ | 🏀 | lakers -1.5 | -105 | TO WIN 0.05 UNITS ❌

1️⃣0️⃣ | 🏀 | lakers vs pacers over 237.5 | +100 | TO RISK 0.15 UNITS ✅

1️⃣1️⃣ | 🏀 | bucks vs nuggets over 225 | +100 | TO RISK 0.05 UNITS ✅

1️⃣2️⃣ | 🏀 | clippers vs knicks under 219 | -130 | TO WIN 0.15 UNITS ❌

1️⃣3️⃣ | 🏀 | nets vs raptors under 214 | +100 | TO RISK 0.05 UNITS ✅

Intel Martingale:

No plays

LIGTHNING / UTAH OVER BREAKDOWN

First graph: all overs/unders since 2021. The team mostly plays overs but this season they are 30-33 to the OVER. The graph deviated from the trend line, which has a fairly high coefficient of determination (0.826... the closer it is to 1 the better — deviations from the trend should not be too strong), and it may be near it's lows. Which is why I think the OVER in Lightning's game is a play. Today should be a good day because...

Thursdays: 37-26 to the OVER (12.2% ROI)
Coming off 2 OVERs in a row: 25-16 (16.5% ROI)
Home / favorite: 70-52 to the OVER

Second graph: best scenarios for Lightning's overs: home + favorite + Tue/Thu/Sat/Sun. Same situation here. The graph is below the line + Thursdays are positive + 15-9 coming off1 over.

All this points towards LIGHTNING / UTAH OVER 6 (-110)

P.S. I'm doing such breakdowns for every play but I wouldn't have enough time to do it. But I have time to do one such breakdown a day. Now just need some progression for the trends and we will be good.

GOLDEN KNIGHTS vs BLACKHAWKS O/U BREAKDOWN

2 graphs again

Graph 1: Vegas overs/unders since 2021. Two key factors for me here: the graph is below the trend line + Golden Knights are 23-10 to the OVER on Fridays (69,7% win rate, 33,1% ROI)

Graph 2: This game is the most public bet NHL OVER according to covers(.)com consensus (it's hard to measure "public" so I refer to covers consensus). And you know I track these public consensus moves. Same situation here: the graph is almost at its all time lows so it has potential for growth. Public consensus is decent on Fridays: 58.5% win rate, 11.8% ROI. And overall March is when NHL sees most OVERS. However, this season unders are prevailing, which means overs are due. Or are they? Let's find out.

GOLDEN KNIGHTS / BLACKHAWKS OVER 6 (-120)

Good luck!