We've just been debating about Kold's (https://www.tg-me.com/martingalemania) unit system in our chat and I wanted to discuss how average bettors percept cappers and their unit profit measures.

Let's imagine a situtation:

an average Joe is scrolling his Twitter feed and sees a dickbutt capper who yells "I aM Up 25,000 uNiTs in 2025".

"Woahhh u see those units. I should definitely sign up! Surely I will become a millionaire" though Joe

Little did Joe know that dickbutt's average bet size is 10000 units.

Cappers always find a way to manipulate their stats. I've been noticing it pretty much every day for a few years now. But some of you are not as experienced so let me tell you: 99% of cappers lie and won't tell you the true stats. 99% of them don't track any stats. Majority of those who publicly track their stats do it through Action app where it is easy to fake stats.

Anyways, I'm digressing.

Even if you find a capper that has his stats tracked, UNITS are not as important as RETURN ON INVESTMENT aka ROI.

Scamdicappers set a trend to show off units, or profit which is even more misleading. Because this way it is easier to get your attention. Who doesn't like money?

(I know many good cappers. But here I'm talking about dudes who usually sell their shit for $1000 / day, etc.)

Sports betting is not a $ game, it’s a % game. The most efficient way to measure cappers expertise is by ROI. Too bad most of those scamdicappers are idiots and don't know what it is.

So, back to Kold's system. He was talking about how his base bet is just 0.05 units so he wanted to multiply it so that people pay more attention. But does it really matter? His ROI is ELITE: 11% ROI across 500+ plays since 1/1/25 and 17 units profit.

0.05 unit sounds like a nickel but it doesn't matter as long as the system is sustainable and profitable.

I think, there is no problem in Kold's system and 0.05 units is fine. The problem is in the current environment of the sports handicapping business where "cappers" are just greedy bastards who inflate units lol.

Underdogs were barking yesterday. Let's see if it continues.

MLB underdogs are catching up — 12-9 straight up over the last 2 days.

The chart is reaching the "support level" — let's see if favorites bounce back and start winning like they used to.

Home teams are good on their own:

home favorites are 171-86
home underdogs are 58-52

Same story in the NHL playoffs: underdogs are reigning the last 2 days — 6-1 straight up.

But it just so happens that on weekends, it's mostly the favorites that win (36-19 SU since 2023).

As expected, favorites prevailed in the MLB yesterday.

What can we expect today? Idk. Should see the trends.

NHL favorites, as expected, also had a good day: 3-1 straight up.

Today I expect favorites to prevail too.

Another interesting angle:

Last game of the day in the NBA playoffs. Mostly favorites are winning here. But Sunday is an underdog day: underdogs are 10-4 straight up in the last game of the day on Sundays

Pacers qualify for this angle today.

Pacers upset the bucks 😱

NHL favorites: 3-1 again 🤝

Friday thru Sunday MLB favs are hitting 65% so far.

Not a lot of games today, new series, nothing exciting.

NHL favs went 3-1 yesterday. Two games today. I expect 1 underdog and 1 favorite.

Might see the how the first game goes then bet the other one. If our cappers have some action here.

Bucks was not the move yesterday (https://www.tg-me.com/cappers_journal/7074)

Today's game is Warriors / Rockets. Mondays are 50/50 (some value in Rockets?).

These sheets do not suggest bets on their own, they're more like additional angles I look at.

Another month over for Kold's system:

106 wins
78 losses

+2.33 units profit ... on an average risk of 0.15 units per bet !!

11.23% ROI in 2025 across 574 plays (ask chat gpt what's a good ROI in sports betting - it'll tell you 5%)

Public tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12le2OeBDlkKb1yJnRuAN6uWu4BrHhdI783n8D__I2AY/edit?usp=sharing

Not your average "picks delivery" service

😉

https://cappersintel.com/

Pre-gameday analytics: 3-0 (don’t ask me what happened next)

MLB was pretty much like I expected yesterday (I did not expect anything yesterday) — 2 underdogs won, the rest was all favorites.

Today. Today I’m looking at underdogs. Home underdogs.

Best underdog MLB odds I’ve spotted:

+110
+120
+150

Somehow underdogs at these odds are performing better than other odds.

NHL

I was right about fav / dog balance. Today I’m looking at underdogs like in the MLB too. Don’t know who but most definitely not Devils 🥸