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Economic survey - Chapter 1.pdf
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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth/ Inclusive growth

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธQ) Examine the evolution of inclusive growth in India over the past decade, emphasizing key initiatives and their impact on socio-economic indicators

๐Ÿ”ฐEconomic survey 2024- Chapter 1

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธThis is the most important chapter in terms of mains 2024

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โœ…Gs-3 : Mobilization of resources- Taxation- LTCG- Budget 2024

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธContext : Long-term gains on assets like property and investments will now be taxed at a flat rate of 12.5%, without considering inflation adjustments. For example, if you bought a house for โ‚น10 lakh in 2001 and sold it for โ‚น75 lakh in 2021, indexation would increase the purchase price to reflect inflation, thus lowering the taxable gain. Now that indexation benefit is removed.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWhat is the impact?- The response from the industry has been mixed. O
Removing indexation means investors can't adjust their purchase price for inflation. This results in higher taxable gains when they sell their assets, leading to more tax. Higher taxes might discourage people from making long-term investments, affecting their financial planning and market activityverall sentiment suggests that removing indexation could dampen investment enthusiasm.

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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic Growth

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธThis is an important topic in prelims phase- Impact of FED rate cuts on Indian economy.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWhat can happen?- Lower US interest rates may lead to increased capital flows into emerging markets like India, as investors seek higher returns. This could lead to an appreciation of the Indian Rupee.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธInflation-As the Rupee strengthens, the cost of imported goods, particularly crude oil, could decrease. Since India imports a significant portion of its oil, this could help in controlling inflation.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธ Indian equities could see a surge as foreign investors might find Indian markets more attractive due to relatively higher returns compared to the US. This could lead to an overall bullish trend in the stock market.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธLower global interest rates can spur investment in India, boosting economic growth. This is especially crucial for sectors that are interest-sensitive.


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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth


๐Ÿ…พ๏ธIn light of recent debates on employment figures, analyze the structural issues in the Indian economy that may lead to an overestimation of job creation despite high economic growth rates. How do these structural challenges affect the quality of employment and the sustainability of economic development? Provide suggestions to address these issues.


๐Ÿ”ฐAns : Structural Issues Leading to Overestimation of Job Creation

โšœ๏ธ1. Shifts in Employment Structure:workers moving from urban to rural areas and from formal to informal sectors.

โšœ๏ธ2. Data Collection and Methodology:relying on Work Participation Rates (WPR)

โšœ๏ธ3. Sectoral Imbalances- growth has been concentrated in capital-intensive sectors

โšœ๏ธ4. Quality of Employment: Poor


โš ๏ธSuggestions : Improving the accuracy of employment data+ Promoting Labor-Intensive Sectors+ Investing in Skill Development+Formalization of the Informal Sector


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โœ…Pension schemes

โš ๏ธOPS VS NPS vs UPS- Currently, the new scheme is for central government employees, but states can adopt it as well,

@upschighlights - Relevant hashtags for Prelims- Click here

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โœ…Gs-3 : Budgeting

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธIn simple words-Vertical Fiscal Imbalance (VFI) = financial mismatch between the revenue-raising powers of the Union and State governments and their expenditure responsibilities.VFI occurs when the ability of the States to meet their spending requirements is largely dependent on financial transfers from the Union-During crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, the problem of VFI becomes more visible

โšœ๏ธAccording to the 15th Finance Commission, States incur 61% of total expenditure but collect only 38% of the total revenue, making them dependent on transfers from the Union government.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธMany States have asked for the tax devolution to be raised to 50%-If a State's own revenue is inadequate to cover its spending needs, this deficit indicates a high VFI.

๐Ÿ‘‰๐ŸปHow VFI is calculated and the formulae- that is not so important for UPSC

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โœ…Gs-2 : IR- International Relations -Bilateral and Global Groupings

โœ…Gs-3 :Mobilization of resources -
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code- watch this for background- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wotnejGVTy0

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธCross-border insolvency happens when a company or individual who has assets or owes money in more than one country faces financial trouble and can't pay their debts. In these cases, legal action needs to be taken in several countries to figure out how to fairly manage and settle what they owe.

โšœ๏ธIt usually involves global businesses that operate in many countries, and it requires coordination between legal systems in different nations to handle the bankruptcy efficiently and ensure fair treatment of all creditors.


๐Ÿ…พ๏ธUN Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Model Law on cross-border insolvency, which aims to harmonize insolvency processes across countries- India has NOT YET adopted this
.

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๐Ÿ”ฐ Deliverables : 16 Evaluated tests with a feedback on how to improve after practicing over 600 relevant PYQs!

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โœ…Gs-3 : Mobilization of resources- NBFCs Under RBI Scrutiny

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธMoney and banking- NBFCs- The primary role of NBFCs is to improve financial inclusion, particularly in areas where traditional banks may not reach. This includes extending loans to small businesses, rural populations, and other underserved sectors, contributing significantly to economic growth and poverty reduction.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธUnlike banks, NBFCs are more confidence-sensitive, meaning their business models rely on sustained investor and borrower confidence. Any shock to their businessโ€”such as rising defaults or liquidity constraintsโ€”can destabilize the entire sector. The RBI, as the regulator, is proactively scrutinizing risky business practices to prevent financial instability.

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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWhat is middle income gap?- The middle-income trap refers to the stagnation of growth as economies transition from low-income to middle-income status but struggle to advance further. The World Bank highlights that only 34 countries have successfully moved to high-income status in the past 34 years- Why?-
Read this old article

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWhat should India do?- ndia's pathway out of the middle-income trap should balance state intervention with democratic values. The focus must be on:
โšœ๏ธ1. Investment in R&D-
Click here
โšœ๏ธ2. Infusion of new global technologies-
ex : read this
โšœ๏ธ3. Creating an inclusive environment for private sector participation-
Click here

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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth- Role of Institutions in growth

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธIn 2012 a very famous book- "why nations fail was published-this year economic nobel prize was given for the same theme-Nations succeed when their institutions protect property rights, encourage innovation, and distribute power equally (inclusive institutions). They fail when institutions extract wealth for elites, discourage investment, and prevent economic mobility (extractive institutions). The root difference lies in how power and resources are allocated.

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธ. Nations with inclusive institutions, promoting rule of law, property protection, and democracy, achieve economic success. On the other hand, extractive institutions, concentrating power in the hands of a few, lead to poverty and instability.


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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth- Inflation

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธFocus of the article : how food inflation and consumer demand are affecting rural and urban areas differently

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธNegative impact in rural areas- rural households spend a larger portion of their income on essential items like food.

โš ๏ธInteresting trend-rural India are buying more products, even as prices are rising-Ex:increase in the sale of automobiles (two-wheelers, tractors, etc.)

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธIn short, rural India is buying more, but food price rises are affecting them more deeply compared to urban India.

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โœ…Gs-3 : Econmic growth- MUST READ- This is a timeless article- For all stages of the exam!

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWhat is middle income trap
?

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธStructural Challenges: Issues such as income inequality, low productivity growth, insufficient industrial diversification, and a reliance on labor-intensive sectors context-
read this

โš ๏ธHow to Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?

โšœ๏ธ1. Improved Institutions: -> economic nobel prize-
Role of Institutions in growth

โšœ๏ธ2. Focus on Human Capital:
Click here

โšœ๏ธ3. Industrial and Export Diversification-
Rural manufacturing+ Reorient Exports via FTA renegotiation

โšœ๏ธ4. Infrastructure and Technological Advancements:
4.1- Physical Infrastructure -
Click here for exact context
4.2 -
Digital infrastructure - Composable Architecture- Digital India
4.3-
Importance of science and tech- R&D

โšœ๏ธ5. Sustainability and Environmental Policies:
LT- LEDS- click here

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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth- India's macroeconomic performance since 2014 - click here

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธIn the context of the above article we discussed wage growth rate as a minus- this article is a delightful read for the in-your-face kind of portrayal of Indian economy. MUST READ๐Ÿ˜…

โš ๏ธTo solve India's wage problem:
โšœ๏ธReduce regulatory hurdles.
โšœ๏ธEncourage private sector growth.
โšœ๏ธInvest in skill development and infrastructure.
โšœ๏ธSimplify policies to enable businesses and workers to thrive together.


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โœ…Gs-3 : Economic growth- Banking- NPAs

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธBackground :
Click here

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธWillful Default (As per RBI): A borrower is categorized as a willful defaulter if they fail to repay loans despite having the capacity to do so or if they divert funds for purposes other than those agreed upon with the lender.

โšœ๏ธMagnitude of the Issue: As of June 2024, 2,664 corporates owe โ‚น1.96 lakh crore in willful defaults.


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โœ…Gs-3 : Agriculture- Fruits and Vegetables sector- Horticulture

๐Ÿ…พ๏ธProblem : Despite contributing around 30% to the value of crop agriculture, it receives far less policy attention and institutional support compared to cereals. Farmers often get only 30% of the final consumer price.

๐Ÿ”ฐWhy?

โšœ๏ธ1. 18% for fruits and 7% for vegetables are lost in the post-harvest value chain= annual loss of โ‚น1.53 trillion.

โšœ๏ธ2. Unlike F&V Sector,in the milk sector, due to cooperatives, farmers get 65-70% of the consumer price.

โš ๏ธSolutions Suggested & Impact on GDP:

โšœ๏ธ1. Creating a National-Level F&V Cooperative (Like Amul for Milk)

โšœ๏ธ2. Building Strong Market Linkages:

โšœ๏ธ3. Investment in Infrastructure & Digital Integration:

โœ…GDP Impact:If implemented well, farmers could receive 65-70% of the final price instead of 30%- increase rural purchasing power

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2025/10/22 21:30:06
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