Consolidation Range

Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.

Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq

Rangebound

Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.

Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M

Bitcoin entities holding 100–1k BTC (“sharks”) have sharply ramped up accumulation. Over the past 7 days, their holdings grew by ~65k BTC. The pace of accumulation has grown as well, with a 30D net increase of 93k BTC. This group now holds a record 3.65M BTC.

The Week On-Chain 36, 2025
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain

Since our Aug 25 post, distribution has softened but not reversed. Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (>0.8). The market remains in a broadly neutral-to-distribution regime.

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept 10th, the largest daily inflow since mid-July.

This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level.

Chart Link: glassno.de/3IhGs9B

Throughout this bull market, BTC short-term holder realized price has effectively served as a support baseline.
As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive. Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.

Chart Link: https://glassno.de/41UGivu