Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.

MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.

Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.

ETH option skews rotated quickly over the past week.

• Aug 22: upside bias (calls richer, 1w -7%).
• Aug 25: defensive shift (puts richer, 1w +4%).
• Aug 28: neutral (~0% across tenors).

Traders rapidly repriced ETH risk from upside to downside and back to balance.

Studying total daily USDT transfer volume on Ethereum, shows a clear pattern since the cycle low: each major BTC rally triggered a >250% surge in USDT activity, followed by a cooldown phase as BTC slipped into downward consolidation.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/41tDxkA

No altcoin sector outperformed ETH over the past month, though DeFi and Layer 2 came close. Notably, most altcoin sectors ended the period in decline.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +3,018 BTC last week. This marked a return to positive flows after the prior week of outflows, bringing renewed support despite choppy price action around $108k.

US spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant inflows of +286k ETH last week, one of the strongest weekly prints since launch. Despite ETH closing the week near $4.4k, institutional demand via ETFs remains firm.

Sizing Up the Dip

Trading at $110k, only ~9% of BTC supply is in loss, carrying up to 10% unrealized losses. In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses.

This dip remains relatively shallow.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/4nepLKZ

Average Bitcoin supply per whale (entities holding 100-10k BTC) has been steadily declining since November 2024, now sitting at ~488 BTC per whale - levels last seen in December 2018.

The Week On-Chain 35, 2025
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out.
- Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band.
- Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k.
- Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Bitcoin’s futures funding rates are cooling, now around $366k/hour - near the neutral threshold of $300k/hour for this cycle. A break below this level would signal fading demand and deepen the off-chain divergence from prior bullish phases.

Over 50% of ETH ETF inflows have been mirrored by rising CME open interest, indicating that TradFi activity isn't purely directional. The data suggests a mix of outright exposure and arbitrage strategies as ETH trades below local highs.

Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) has been climbing to new highs, reflecting strong put demand. This isn’t purely a sign of bearishness; it often signals institutional hedging activity. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, institutions are stepping in, gaining exposure while using puts to manage downside risk.

Chart link: https://glassno.de/4n4eDR2