⚠️🇨🇳#realestate #china #bubble
China's real estate crash isn't over yet — JPMorgan

Morgan: based on the history of economic bubbles, the Chinese real estate market may still have room for further decline.
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CEO BHP expects China’s property sector to rebound in the upcoming year on the back of favorable government policies

🌏#commodity #marketsize
The global commodities market is overly concentrated

🇺🇸#economy #us #recession
JPMorgan: US recession probability < 30%
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a US recession (chart).

Inverted yield curve signals start of US recession (chart).

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #historty #warning
i3Invest: the last three times the S&P 500 crossed below its 52-week moving average after a significant uptrend, the S&P 500 experienced significant declines. This crossover is happening again.

⚠️🇩🇪#economy #germany #macro
German business model was based on:

- Cheap energy from Russia

- Cheap subcontractors in Eastern Europe

- Steadily growing exports to China

all three are gone by now.

— Macrobond

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).

💥🇨🇳#economy #china #support #bonds
A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as $1.4 trillion in special debt = bullish for stocks in China

🇨🇳#stocks #china #impulse #economy
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in today’s terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didn’t even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode — report

@scorpi18IA

🇺🇸#commodity #us #stocks
S&P 500 Energy sector is extremely oversold.

🌍#population #africa #forecast
Morgan: Africa's population will surpass that of India and China by 2030.

⚠️#stocks #us #cash
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.

#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)

⚠️#inflation #us #macro
TS Lombard does not rule out the possibility of a second wave of inflation in the US, similar to that of the 1940s and 1970s

#monetarypolicy the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s

🌏#commodity #stocks #world
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance

🇺🇸#stocks #elections #us #seasonality ##smallcap
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.

historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.