⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #buffett
the rise in the proportion of cash on Berkshire's balance sheet to record levels is a worrying signal for the stock market ... Buffett doesn’t claim to be an expert at market timing, but he knows when stocks are expensive — read more

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #macro #funds #history
unlike Buffett, fund managers have reduced their cash holdings to historic lows, thereby depriving themselves of liquidity for future investments and a protective buffer in the event of a bull market.

🇺🇸#stocks #us #forecast #history
The big banks keep predicting growth in the S&P 500 for 2025, but the problem is that they are often wrong. For example, in 2022, when strategists at the big banks predicted a similar 9.9% rise in equities, the S&P 500 actually fell by 15.3%.
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#bubble Experts compares the current situation to the dotcom bubble, when analysts who predicted a market downturn lost their jobs during a sustained rally. This summer, one of the last "bears" on Wall Street, Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan, was fired.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #elections #seasonality
Trump's inauguration on January 20 could mark a local peak for the S&P 500. Historically, markets tend to slow down once an elected president takes office.

🌎#stocks #world #dividends #history
Global equity valuations are at historic highs, while dividend yields are at historic lows.

⚠️🇺🇸#debt #bonds #us #warning #markets #em
The rapid growth of the U.S. national debt risks undermining confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, potentially leading to higher yields and increased volatility in global financial markets. For developing countries, these dynamics often result in capital outflows, currency depreciation, and rising borrowing costs, further complicating their economic development.
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US national debt - the biggest threat to the global economy:

- IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden.

- BBG: US #elections will not stop the runaway growth in spending and debt. The rising debt burden in the U.S. poses a serious risk to the Treasury market, as the issuance of new Treasuries pushes up long-term bond yields.

- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes U.S. debt is the ‘most predictable crisis’ in history.

- Ray Dalio has warned that the US government’s rising debt levels could hit Treasury bonds.

- Goldman CEO said the US government should not be lulled into thinking that there’s insatiable appetite for its debt.

- ex-World Bank chief David Malpass: the large national debt and excessive spending policies of the US government could lead to a fiscal "train wreck" as soon as 2025.

- Nassim Taleb says US faces a ‘Death Spiral’ of swelling debt. It would take a miracle to reverse the damage. Political system makes it tougher to address.

- "Bond King" Jeff Gundlach sounded the alarm on the US debt.

- Penn Wharton: US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path.

- Musk: America is headed for de facto bankruptcy very fast

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #tech #us #history #bubble
Big Tech's market cap relative to U.S. GDP is now 3X higher than it was during the dot-com bubble.

❗️🇺🇸#stocks #mining #crypto #datacenters
Bernstein: bitcoin mining stocks trade at a 90% discount to data center service company stocks, based on a comparison of the EV/Operating MW multiple — research*
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Miners are shifting from crypto mining to AI and data center services, attracted by the significantly higher profitability — CNBC

*only for subscribers of the Scorpi18 Investment Adviser

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #concentration #warning #history
Goldman: the proportion of the largest companies in the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market = ATH

... this high concentration raises concerns, as history links it to lower long-term returns. If the trend holds, we project S&P 500 annualized returns to average 3% over the next decade. #bubble

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bubble
TopDownCharts: the euphoria in the US stock market continues to grow.

FT: almost no one foresees an imminent pop. Virtually every Wall Street analyst predicts US stocks will continue outperforming the rest of the world in 2025. But all this enthusiasm only tends to confirm that the bubble is at a very advanced stage ... All the classic signs of extreme prices, valuations and sentiment suggest the end is near.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)

🌎#commodity #cycles #macro
MUFG: commodity prices are still in the early stages of a bullish super-cycle — report

🌎#commodity #history
Commodities/Dow Jones ratio = historical low

#inflation according to the chart, the last time this indicator was at such a low level was before the start of the 1970s commodity supercycle (chart) and the onset of inflationary pressures in the US (chart)

#opinion if history repeats itself, we could soon see a significant rise in commodities and inflation, fueled by geopolitics—military conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and trade wars.

#monetarypolicy Fed's greatest fear is a resurgence of inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s (chart)

⚠️🇺🇸#bonds #us #macro
US Treasuries entering 6-th year of 3-th great bond bear market of past 240 years — BofA

🇺🇸#vix #stocks #us #seasonality
historically, volatility in U.S. stocks tends to increase significantly during the first three months of the year.

🇺🇸#debt #us #savings
US household debt is at historically low levels.