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anticipation behaviour:

max pain scenarios tends to mean new positions being forced offside.

traders anticipate pivots being taken often acting early on impulse.

- shorting in anticipation of a low being swept.
- longing in anticipation of a high being swept.

example ↑
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98% chance Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged today, according to Polymarket.
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JUST IN: Iran's UN Ambassador in Geneva warns that Iran will retaliate against the US if they determine it's directly involved in attacks on Iran.
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Degen or genius? A $2.39M bet on today’s Fed decision.

A trader going by the nickname bobe2 placed 2.447M “Yes” bets on the “No change” outcome via Polymarket — spending over $2.39M.

If correct, the payout will exceed $2.447M.
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JUST IN: Khamenei states Iran won't agree to enforced peace or war.
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JUST IN: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei firmly rejects Trump's plea for surrender, stating they will not yield to any attacks.
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Middle East Tensions Reach a Breaking Point

Trump is now openly considering joining Israel in a war against Iran. That decision would expose U.S. bases across the region to retaliation — and could trigger full-scale military escalation.

Markets are starting to price this in:

• VIX is back above 20
• Traders now need both trade war insurance and hot war insurance
• One strike on a U.S. base could flip this market upside down

You can’t be too bearish right now.
The geopolitical risk premium is back — and it’s not priced in.
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JUST IN: OpenAI offers ChatGPT at a discount, impacting Microsoft, reports The Information.
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JUST IN: Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell, calling him not a 'smart guy', and repeats that the Fed should cut rates, stating Powell has performed poorly.
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JUST IN: Trump states that something significant will occur in less than a week.
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JUST IN: Trump states uncertainty about potential US strike on Iran.
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JUST IN: Trump's patience with Iran has expired. When asked about Iran's leader, he responded: "Good luck."
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Gold has crushed the US stock market over the last 25 years.
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Iran is now experiencing a near-total nationwide internet blackout.

Just 3% of the country currently has internet connectivity
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JUST IN: Israel reports missile launches from Iran targeting its territory.
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Circle shares $CRCL jumped 10% after the US Senate passed a bill regulating stablecoins.
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JUST IN: Iran's Deputy FM Ravanchi warns that Iran will retaliate should the US join Israel's conflict with Iran.
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Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.
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Trade Watcher
Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.
Fed projections:

– Two rate cuts expected in 2025, totaling 50 bps

– One rate cut in 2026 by 25 bps

– One rate cut in 2027 by 25 bps
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2025/07/12 21:30:26
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