JUST IN: Iran's UN Ambassador in Geneva warns that Iran will retaliate against the US if they determine it's directly involved in attacks on Iran.
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Degen or genius? A $2.39M bet on today’s Fed decision.
A trader going by the nickname bobe2 placed 2.447M “Yes” bets on the “No change” outcome via Polymarket — spending over $2.39M.
If correct, the payout will exceed $2.447M.
A trader going by the nickname bobe2 placed 2.447M “Yes” bets on the “No change” outcome via Polymarket — spending over $2.39M.
If correct, the payout will exceed $2.447M.
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JUST IN: Khamenei states Iran won't agree to enforced peace or war.
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JUST IN: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei firmly rejects Trump's plea for surrender, stating they will not yield to any attacks.
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Middle East Tensions Reach a Breaking Point
Trump is now openly considering joining Israel in a war against Iran. That decision would expose U.S. bases across the region to retaliation — and could trigger full-scale military escalation.
Markets are starting to price this in:
• VIX is back above 20
• Traders now need both trade war insurance and hot war insurance
• One strike on a U.S. base could flip this market upside down
You can’t be too bearish right now.
The geopolitical risk premium is back — and it’s not priced in.
Trump is now openly considering joining Israel in a war against Iran. That decision would expose U.S. bases across the region to retaliation — and could trigger full-scale military escalation.
Markets are starting to price this in:
• VIX is back above 20
• Traders now need both trade war insurance and hot war insurance
• One strike on a U.S. base could flip this market upside down
You can’t be too bearish right now.
The geopolitical risk premium is back — and it’s not priced in.
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JUST IN: OpenAI offers ChatGPT at a discount, impacting Microsoft, reports The Information.
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JUST IN: Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell, calling him not a 'smart guy', and repeats that the Fed should cut rates, stating Powell has performed poorly.
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JUST IN: Trump states that something significant will occur in less than a week.
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JUST IN: Trump states uncertainty about potential US strike on Iran.
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JUST IN: Trump's patience with Iran has expired. When asked about Iran's leader, he responded: "Good luck."
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JUST IN: Israel reports missile launches from Iran targeting its territory.
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JUST IN: Iran's Deputy FM Ravanchi warns that Iran will retaliate should the US join Israel's conflict with Iran.
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Trade Watcher
Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%.
Fed projections:
– Two rate cuts expected in 2025, totaling 50 bps
– One rate cut in 2026 by 25 bps
– One rate cut in 2027 by 25 bps
– Two rate cuts expected in 2025, totaling 50 bps
– One rate cut in 2026 by 25 bps
– One rate cut in 2027 by 25 bps
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